FT: Netanyahu and Erdoğan Compete After Assad’s Fall – Who is Stronger in the Middle East?

The Financial Times published an analytical report by Israeli writer Gideon Rachman, discussing the rivalry between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan for dominance in the Middle East following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria.

Rachman highlighted Erdoğan’s recent claim that he and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, are the only significant players in the region. However, this claim might be contested by global leaders like China’s Xi Jinping or the U.S.’s Donald Trump.

Still, Rachman argued that on a regional level, Erdoğan has valid reasons to see himself as one of the two dominant leaders reshaping the Middle East. His chief rival? The widely disliked Israeli leader, Benjamin Netanyahu.

Erdoğan’s Strategic Maneuvers

Erdoğan’s current confidence stems from Turkey’s role in Syria. Turkey was the sole regional power to throw its full weight behind Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, the Islamic group that toppled Assad’s regime. Ibrahim Kalin, Turkey’s intelligence chief, even visited Damascus just days after the group seized power.

For Erdoğan, the fall of Assad marks a new path to regional influence. It also serves domestic purposes, such as weakening Kurdish groups in Syria, easing Turkey’s refugee crisis, and bolstering Erdoğan’s efforts to remain in power beyond 2028.

Turkey’s alliances with Islamic groups like Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and the Muslim Brotherhood present a significant threat to both Israel and conservative Gulf monarchies. Israel, on its part, has sought to dismantle Syria’s military capabilities through continuous airstrikes and territorial expansions beyond the Golan Heights, occupied since 1967.

Netanyahu’s Ambitions

Like Erdoğan, Netanyahu sees opportunity amidst the Middle East’s chaos. Last week, he described the current upheaval as “a dramatic event, a seismic shift not seen since the Sykes-Picot Agreement.” His reference to the 1916 British-French accord dividing the Ottoman Empire highlights Israel’s interest in redrawing the region’s borders.

Netanyahu appears to envision his legacy as the leader who expanded Israel’s borders after decades of stagnation. As reported by Haaretz, his coalition government, heavily influenced by settler movements, has pushed for re-occupying parts of Gaza. Meanwhile, Netanyahu may leverage the upcoming Trump administration’s support to annex parts of the occupied West Bank formally.

Netanyahu also views Assad’s fall as an opportunity to strike a decisive blow against Iran. With Tehran facing internal unrest and weakened alliances—Hamas, Hezbollah, and now Assad—Iran is at its most vulnerable in decades. However, fears remain that Iran could accelerate its nuclear ambitions, which might provoke an Israeli preemptive strike.

Regional Rivalry: Israel and Turkey

Over the past year, Israel has demonstrated its ability to fight on multiple fronts, including Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Yemen, Iran, and now Syria. As the region’s sole nuclear power, Israel enjoys near-total backing from the United States.

Similarly, Erdoğan’s ambitions to revive Turkish influence across former Ottoman territories have met resistance in the Arab world. Both Israel and Turkey face significant challenges in their bid for regional dominance.

1. 1. Non-Arab Powers in an Arab Region: Both nations remain outliers in a predominantly Arab region, with little appetite among Arab states to resurrect the Ottoman Empire or embrace Israel’s expansionism.

1. 1. Economic Constraints: Turkey’s economy is strained by inflation, while Israel’s technological and military power is underpinned by a small population of fewer than 10 million people.

These vulnerabilities could lead to a direct clash between Netanyahu and Erdoğan’s competing ambitions, particularly in Syria.

Saudi Arabia’s Role

While Turkey and Israel celebrated their respective victories in Syria last week, Saudi Arabia marked different achievement: securing the rights to host the 2034 FIFA World Cup.

Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies perceive Erdoğan’s Islamist alliances as a greater threat than Netanyahu’s regional ambitions. However, Israel’s ongoing aggression in Gaza has shocked much of the Arab world, making closer ties with Netanyahu controversial—especially if Israel continues to undermine the two-state solution with the Palestinians.

With their powerful armies, Israel and Turkey remain formidable players. However, the financial strength of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE could ultimately shape the region more profoundly than the actions of Erdoğan or Netanyahu.