Secret Talks Between Saudi Arabia and Israel to Advance Public Normalization

The Israeli newspaper Haaretz has revealed secret discussions between Saudi Arabia and Israel to advance public normalization in a deal that is expected to come to fruition after Donald Trump assumes power in the United States. This deal reportedly involves significant Saudi concessions concerning the establishment of a Palestinian state.

The report highlights that Saudi Arabia and Israel have recently achieved a breakthrough in normalization talks, which could also pave the way for a deal to secure the release of Israeli prisoners held by Hamas and bring an end to the war in Gaza.

Sources familiar with the negotiations indicated that instead of explicit Israeli recognition of a Palestinian state—a long-standing Saudi demand—the two sides have agreed on a vague commitment from Israel to a “pathway toward a Palestinian state.” This ambiguous pledge would allow Saudi Arabia to maintain its promise of not abandoning the Palestinian cause.

Accelerated Negotiations Amid Regional Ceasefires

According to the report, Israel and Saudi Arabia have held secret meetings in recent weeks to publicly normalize relations and end the Gaza war. Discussions intensified following the ceasefire agreement with Lebanon.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is reportedly leading the negotiations through his Strategic Affairs Minister, Ron Dermer, while keeping the Israeli government and security cabinet in the dark about the specifics.

The United States is acting as a mediator and guarantor of these talks, with Israel coordinating its efforts with both President Joe Biden’s administration and President-elect Donald Trump. The upcoming Trump administration is expected to offer incentives, including a U.S.-Saudi defense agreement and the sale of advanced American weaponry to the Kingdom.

Saudi Concessions and Netanyahu’s Strategic Calculations

Saudi Arabia has long demanded Israeli recognition of a Palestinian state. In September, Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud announced the formation of a coalition of Arab states and international organizations to push for such recognition.

However, sources close to Netanyahu suggest that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has little personal interest in formal recognition of a Palestinian state. Instead, he seeks enough progress on the issue to secure local political and religious support for the deal.

Netanyahu believes that his political base would accept the vague formulation of a “pathway toward a Palestinian state,” as it does not involve concrete commitments.

Normalization as a Catalyst for Gaza Reconstruction

Normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia could also facilitate a deal for the release of prisoners held by Hamas. Saudi Arabia is reportedly keen to end the war and contribute to the reconstruction of Gaza, which has been nearly obliterated by recent conflicts.

Saudi Arabia views itself as obligated to assist Palestinians in Gaza, while Israel sees an opportunity to involve moderate Arab states in Gaza’s reconstruction and channel Saudi funds into the region after the war.

A Two-Phase Agreement

According to reports, the proposed deal would be implemented in two phases. The first phase involves the release of women, elderly individuals, and those with medical conditions held by Hamas, in exchange for Israel freeing hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, including those with high sentences.

The initial phase would also involve a cessation of fighting in Gaza for an indefinite period, with Israel gradually withdrawing its forces. However, the details and timeline remain unclear.

During this period, the second phase of the deal would be completed. This phase includes signing a normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia. The Kingdom, alongside a coalition of states including the Palestinian Authority, would lead Gaza’s reconstruction while ensuring Israel’s security along its southern border.

Opposition and Uncertainty

Despite the proposed framework, opposition within the Israeli coalition to the terms of the prisoner exchange and the Palestinian Authority’s involvement in Gaza’s reconstruction casts doubt on the agreement’s approval in the Israeli government.