Syrian Opposition Foils UAE-Israeli Plan to Partition Syria and Keep Assad in Power

British journalist David Hearst, editor-in-chief of Middle East Eye, has uncovered an Israeli plan aimed at dividing Syria into three geographical zones of influence: a Kurdish region in the northeast, a Druze enclave in the south, and a UAE-backed Assad regime remaining in Damascus under Emirati financial and political control.

The plan, according to Hearst, was designed to reduce Iranian and Hezbollah influence in Syria while curbing Turkey’s ambitions in the region. However, events on the ground derailed this strategy, as Assad’s loyalist forces collapsed and Damascus fell to opposition forces led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham. This unexpected development prompted Israel to target Syria’s military infrastructure, aiming to prevent strategic weapons from falling into the hands of the new Syrian leadership.

A New Regional Power Dynamic

The shift in power in Syria has given rise to a new regional equation led by Turkey and the newly established Syrian government. This emerging alliance poses increasing challenges for Israel’s strategic position in the region.

At the same time, international powers are reassessing their positions through negotiations regarding sanctions on Syria and redefining the roles of regional players. It is clear that a new phase of conflict is unfolding, with implications for Syria and the broader Middle East.

The Full Plan: Details and Objectives

According to security sources speaking to Middle East Eye, Israel’s plan relied on keeping Bashar al-Assad in power under the guise of Emirati guardianship while forging strategic ties with Kurdish factions in the northeast and Druze groups in the south.

The plan aimed to limit Turkey’s influence in Syria to the northwest, particularly Idlib, where Turkish-backed groups, including Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, were concentrated. However, the swift advances of the opposition forces this month led to Assad’s downfall, effectively dismantling the Israeli-Emirati strategy.

Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs Gideon Sa’ar hinted at the strategy in a speech last month, stating that Israel must strengthen its connections with minorities like the Kurds and Druze in both Syria and Lebanon to counter the influence of larger regional powers.

The Fall of Assad and Israel’s Military Escalation

The situation changed dramatically when Assad’s forces collapsed in key provinces like Homs and Hama, opening the path for opposition forces to seize Damascus. Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham captured Aleppo without significant resistance, marking a turning point in Syria’s 13-year-long civil war.

In the early hours of December 8th, Syrian Prime Minister Mohammad Ghazi al-Jallali announced his readiness to peacefully hand over power. Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani responded by agreeing to allow Jallali to remain in his position temporarily to facilitate a transitional process.

However, as opposition forces approached Damascus, Jordanian and Emirati diplomats reportedly tried to orchestrate a scenario where the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and allied factions would take control of the city before Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham arrived. The plan failed when al-Jallali refused to cooperate, following advice from Jolani to reject the arrangement.

Realizing it could no longer influence the situation, Israel intensified its military operations in Syria, destroying naval assets in Latakia and seizing strategic locations such as Mount Hermon and parts of the occupied Golan Heights. Israeli sources justified these actions by claiming the need to prevent strategic weapons from falling into the hands of the opposition.

Regional Anxiety Over a New Islamist Government

The rise of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and the prospect of an Islamist-led government in Syria have caused panic in Jordan and the UAE. Both nations fear the regional implications of an Islamist administration, even though Jolani pledged inclusivity for all factions and faiths in Syria.

The UAE, known for its opposition to pro-democracy movements across the Arab world, has been at the forefront of counterrevolutionary efforts since the Arab Spring. With over a million Syrian refugees residing in Jordan, Amman is particularly alarmed by the potential destabilization along its shared border with Syria.

Israeli-Turkish Tensions Over Syria

Israel’s plans in Syria have also raised alarm in Ankara. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has openly criticized Israeli aggression and warned of its potential threat to Turkish sovereignty. Erdoğan accused Israel of harboring expansionist ambitions, stating, “Israel’s agenda doesn’t stop at Gaza—it may target Anatolia next.”

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan also highlighted Israel’s reluctance to see Assad removed from power, pointing out that Israel considered Assad a safeguard against the opposition forces. Fidan emphasized that Turkey had long viewed Assad as a puppet serving Israeli interests rather than a genuine member of the resistance axis.

UAE-Israel Collaboration and Western Negotiations

As part of the Israeli-Emirati plan, UAE officials intensified their outreach to the Druze community in Israel and Syria. In early December, UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed met with Sheikh Muwaffaq Tarif, the spiritual leader of Israel’s Druze community, to discuss shared strategic interests.

Simultaneously, Western nations, including the United States, explored lifting sanctions on Syria to incentivize Assad to sever ties with Iran and Hezbollah. However, this strategy became moot following Assad’s ouster.