Revealed: How Israel’s plan to carve up Syria was thwarted by Assad’s downfall

The overthrow of Bashar al-Assad’s government thwarted an Israeli plan to divide Syria into three blocks in order to sever its ties with Iran and Hezbollah, according to regional security sources briefed about the plot.

Israel planned to establish military and strategic ties with the Kurds in the northeast and the Druze in the south, leaving Assad in power in Damascus under Emirati funding and control.

This would have also served to limit Turkey’s influence in Syria to Idlib and the northwest, the stronghold of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and Turkish-backed rebel groups whose lightning offensive earlier this month led to Assad’s downfall.

The plan was hinted at in a speech by Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar a month ago in which he said Israel needed to reach out to the Kurds and the Druze in Syria and Lebanon, adding that there were “political and security aspects” that needed to be considered.

“We must look at developments in this context and understand that in a region where we will always be a minority we can have natural alliances with other minorities,” Saar said.

But the plan was overtaken by events when forces loyal to Assad crumbled in Homs and Hama, leaving the road to Damascus open.

Rebels by then had already smashed through frontlines and captured Aleppo, Syria’s largest city, without a fight, transforming the balance of power in the country’s 13-year civil war.

In the early hours of Sunday 8 December, Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali, the Syrian prime minister, appeared on video saying he was willing to hand over power peacefully.

Ahmed al-Sharaa, the HTS leader better known by his nom de guerre Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, swiftly replied that he was ready to keep Jalili in power until a transition was organised.

But even as HTS was approaching the capital, the Emirati and Jordanian ambassadors in Syria were making desperate attempts to stop HTS from gaining control of Damascus, security sources revealed.

Jordan encouraged the Free Syrian Army and allied groups from the south to get to Damascus before HTS.

“Before Jolani arrived, the two ambassadors arranged for fighters from the Free Syrian Army to pick the Syrian prime minister up from his home and take him to the Four Seasons Hotel where they were to officially hand over the state institutions to the armed groups from the south,” security sources told Middle East Eye, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Jalali was filmed being escorted to the hotel by soldiers from the Hauran region in southern Syria belonging to the Fifth Corps, a military force made up of former rebels who had previously reconciled with the Syrian government.

“Jalali stalled and phoned Jolani. Jolani told him: ‘Don’t do it’ and Jalali heeded that advice,” a source said.

When Israel realised it could not thwart HTS’s takeover of the country it began destroying Syria’s military assets, including sinking its fleet in Latakia and occupying territory including Mount Hermon, Syria’s highest mountain near the border with Lebanon and the occupied Golan Heights.

“These weapons were safe under Assad. That is how much Israel was invested in keeping him in control. But they became unsafe in the hands of the rebels,” a source said.

Officials in both Jordan and the UAE have expressed alarm at the HTS takeover, and the prospects of an Islamist-led government in Syria, even if, as has been promised by Sharaa, all factions and religions are represented. 

Since the eruption of the Arab Spring revolutions in 2011, the Emiratis have been at the forefront of anti-democratic counter-revolutionary efforts in Egypt, Libya, Tunisia and Yemen.

Jordan has over one million Syrian refugees and shares a long desert border with Syria which is straddled by tribes who live on both sides of the frontier.

In response to events in Damascus, Jordan last weekend convened an Arab Ministerial Contact Committee on Syria in Aqaba.

A statement released afterwards talked of the need to “oversee the transition process” and “enhance efforts to combat terrorism… given that it poses a danger to Syria and the security of the region”.

Assad’s last hours in Damascus

Details about the final moments of Assad’s rule appears to have been partially corroborated by the editor of the Al Akbar newspaper, Ibrahim al-Amin, who is known to reflect the view of Hezbollah.

Amin wrote that Assad had been so convinced that the Emiratis would come to his rescue that he waited “until the last hours” before leaving Damascus.

“One of Assad’s associates, who stayed with him until the last hours before he left Damascus, says that the man was still hoping for something big to happen to stop the armed factions’ attack. He believed that ‘the Arab and international community’ would prefer that he remain in power, rather than Islamists take over the administration of Syria,” Amin wrote.

Assad realised the game was up after Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan persuaded his Russian and Iranian counterparts, Sergei Lavrov and Abbas Araghchi, who were all attending a conference in Qatar, not to intervene.

“As soon as the Russians and Iranians informed Bashar al-Assad that they would not be in the heart of the battle, the man realised that defeat was coming.” Amin wrote.

Hezbollah had come to its own conclusions about the futility of coming to Assad’s help when they saw that his own army was not prepared to fight for him, he added.

The Israeli government plan for the division of Syria had been taking shape for weeks previously in the knowledge that a ceasefire with Hezbollah in Lebanon, which was agreed at the end of last month, was on the way.

UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed stepped up his contacts with the Druze community in Israel. He met Sheikh Mowafaq Tarif, the spiritual leader of the Druze in Israel, in Abu Dhabi on December 7.

A week earlier, the US and the UAE had held talks on using the prospect of lifting sanctions as a lever to persuade Assad to cut ties with Iran and close the routes that Iranian weapons take through Syria to resupply Hezbollah.

The toughest sanctions, known as the Ceasar Act, which were passed by Congress in 2019, are due to expire on Friday unless renewed by US lawmakers.

On Friday, US officials arrived in Damascus for their first official talks with representatives from HTS, which is still proscribed in the US and other western countries as a terrorist group.

Geir Pedersen, the United Nations’ special envoy for Syria, told the Security Council on Tuesday that a “smooth end” to sanctions was needed to address Syria’s immense needs.

Turkish fear over Israeli operations

Israel’s plans for Syria had set alarm bells ringing in Ankara long before current events unfolded.

In October, the Turkish parliament convened a closed session to address Israel’s military operations, which the Turkish leadership classed as a “national security threat”.

Two months before Saar’s speech, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told parliament in September that Israel harboured expansionist ambitions that could target “parts of Anatolia”.

“Israel’s expansionist agenda, driven by religious fanaticism, does not stop at Gaza. Their next target may well be our homeland,” Erdogan said.

Fidan, the foreign minister and former intelligence chief, hammered home the message in a question and answer session at the conference in Doha as Assad’s government was collapsing.

Fidan stated, “Israel neither wanted nor desired Assad’s removal at all,” adding that the United States had “informed us [Turkey] that Israel only wanted Assad”.

Asked whether Assad had ever been an active member of the Iranian axis of resistance, Fidan replied: “Over the course of 13 years, when I was head of the intelligence agency, I maintained contact with Iran. I used to tell them that the idea of Assad being a front for resistance was against Iran.

“It was in reality unrealistic. It was a joke and Assad was merely serving Israel.”

Erdogan’s call to arms has recently been echoed by his political ally, the leader of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), Devlet Bahceli.

Bahceli said: “If Israel continues its expansionist ambitions with policies of hegemony and aggression, the confrontation between Turkey and Israel will be inevitable.”

Sharaa has tried to temper western fears that Syria under his rule will be a base for attacks against Israel. He told the BBC this week that Syria was not a threat to the world and pleaded for sanctions to be lifted.

“Now, after all that has happened, sanctions must be lifted because they were targeted at the old regime. The victim and the oppressor should not be treated in the same way,” he said.

Security sources remain confident that it is only a matter of time before Sharaa will have to address the issue of the Israeli occupation of Syrian territory beyond the Golan Heights, which are internationally recognised as part of Syria but have been occupied – and later annexed – by Israel since 1967.

Almost 130,000 Syrians were expelled from their homes when Israeli forces occupied the Golan Heights. They settled in the outskirts of Damascus where their community has since grown to over 800,000. Jolani’s family was one of them.

“Unlike Sinai, which Israeli forces occupied in 1967 and then subsequently gave back, Israel has annexed the Golan Heights. This means there was no path open for peace on this issue, because no Syrian would surrender their claim,” a security source said.

“Although Netanyahu wants us to believe he won in Syria by breaking the chain of the Iranian axis of resistance, the reality is a new axis is shaping quickly with Turkey and the new Syria under Sunni Islamist leadership at its core.

“This will only deepen the challenges facing Israel as it opens the confrontation with the wider Sunni world,” the source said.

Middle East Eye contacted the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs for comment but had not received a response at the time of publication.

The ministry has previously described the advance of Israeli forces into Syrian territory beyond the occupied Golan Heights as a “limited and temporary operation” which it said was “necessary for defensive reasons due to threats posed by jihadist groups operating near the border.”

On Tuesday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited troops stationed at the summit of Mount Hermon and said Israeli forces would “stay in this important place until another arrangement is found that ensures Israel’s security”.

Israel has also criticised Turkey’s support for Syrian rebel groups and military operations against Kurds in Syria’s northeast.

In a statement on Tuesday, the ministry said: “The last country that can speak about occupation in Syria is Turkey… There is no justification for the continuation of Turkish aggression and violence against Kurds in Syria!”

MEE also contacted the Emirati and Jordanian foreign ministries for comment but had not received a response at the time of publication.

In a statement on Monday, the Emirati Ministry of Foreign Affairs said: “The United Arab Emirates is closely monitoring the ongoing developments in the Syrian Arab Republic, and reiterates its commitment to the unity and integrity of the Syrian state, as well as to ensuring security and stability for the brotherly Syrian people.”

Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi on Monday said: “This is a historic moment in the brotherly country of Syria, one that requires all of us to stand with the Syrian people, to help them embark on a historic achievement in building a future shaped by Syrians themselves, ensuring Syria’s security, unity, stability, sovereignty, and the rights of all Syrians.”