What Is “New Syria’s” Relationship with Israel? Initial Observations

(1) Netanyahu’s Role in the Syrian Opposition’s Moves

The recent military advances by the Syrian opposition coincided with statements by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who warned the Assad regime against “playing with fire.” Critics have used this timing to suggest coordination between the opposition and the Israeli government, leveraging the weakened state of the “Resistance Axis” after Hezbollah’s ceasefire agreement with Israel.

While many pushing this narrative come from staunch anti-revolutionary perspectives, others, particularly those who initially supported the Syrian revolution but grew skeptical after its militarization, voice concerns about Syria’s future. These concerns warrant a calm and thoughtful discussion.

The primary rebuttal to this alleged connection is that politics rarely operates in a linear fashion. The mere overlap between a political statement and a military event does not automatically imply coordination.

Furthermore, Israel has openly opposed the Assad regime for decades, particularly following the introduction of Iranian military forces into Syria. If the Syrian opposition’s actions were tied to Netanyahu’s rhetoric, why didn’t they act earlier?

It’s also worth noting that the opposition refrained from taking part in Israel’s aggression against Lebanon, despite being prepared for attacks for over two years. This indicates a strategic decision to remain focused on internal priorities rather than becoming a tool in external conflicts.

(2) A Defeat for the Resistance Axis?

The victory of the Syrian opposition and the collapse of the Assad regime undeniably signaled the end of what was once called the “Resistance Axis.” This outcome was partially due to Iran’s inability to provide the necessary military support it had offered for over a decade, as its economy faltered under pressure and its forces faced crippling strikes from Israel. Hezbollah, too, suffered devastating losses, including the assassination of senior leaders like Hassan Nasrallah, which weakened its ability to intervene in Syria.

While these developments contributed to the opposition’s success, they do not solely explain the Resistance Axis’s defeat. In reality, Syria had already distanced itself from this alliance, as evidenced by Assad’s moves to reduce Iranian influence within Syria and prevent Hezbollah from mobilizing during Israel’s aggression on Lebanon. This divergence became even clearer during events like “Al-Aqsa Flood,” where Assad’s regime remained conspicuously silent.

Thus, the Resistance Axis was significantly weakened before the fall of Assad, largely due to external factors and Israel’s sustained aggression. Framing Assad’s fall as the sole reason for the Axis’s decline misinterprets the broader dynamics at play.

(3) Israel’s Objectives in Syria

Israel’s goals in Syria can be discerned from its intensified military actions and public statements by its political and military leaders.

In recent weeks, Israel has dramatically increased its airstrikes on Syrian territory, surpassing previous years’ levels. Israeli forces have also occupied new territories, including Quneitra and parts of southern Syria, extending to Daraa near the Jordanian border.

Israel’s immediate objectives include:

• • Weakening Syria’s Military: Depleting the remnants of the Syrian army to ensure the new leadership in Damascus lacks the capacity for retaliation.

• • Establishing Buffer Zones: Maintaining control over Quneitra for at least a year and potentially creating additional buffer zones in the south.

• • Preventing Attacks from Syria’s New Leadership: Israel has openly labeled Syria’s new leadership as “hostile extremists” and untrustworthy.

• • Encouraging Fragmentation: Supporting minority groups, such as the Druze, Alawites, and Kurds, to push for a divided Syria. This objective has been echoed by Israeli experts and politicians, including Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar, who emphasized the importance of “protecting minorities” in Syria.

(4) What Is Required from Syria?

Faced with this regional landscape and Israel’s clear hostility, Syria’s new leadership must adopt a unified and firm national stance against aggression. This requires:

1. 1. A Strong Political Message: Clearly condemning Israeli aggression and rejecting the occupation of Golan, Quneitra, and other Syrian territories. Avoiding a weak or conciliatory tone in public statements is critical.

1. 1. Grassroots Resistance: While a full-scale war against Israel is unfeasible given the imbalance of power, a popular resistance movement against Israeli occupation could serve as a deterrent.

1. 1. Strategic Diplomacy: Highlighting Israel’s illegal occupation of Syrian territories in discussions with foreign delegations and advocating for international action.

The new Syrian leadership must prioritize national unity, as addressing internal challenges is inseparable from resisting external aggression. Western policies often involve incremental pressure on nations, with each concession leading to further demands. Syria must learn to maneuver these pressures while safeguarding its sovereignty and building essential international relationships for reconstruction.

Syria’s legitimacy on the international stage, particularly regarding its stance on Palestine and resistance, must be reaffirmed. The Syrian people, who have endured immense suffering under Assad’s regime, deserve leadership that upholds their dignity and actively challenges Israeli encroachment.