Israel vs. Turkey: The Rising Power Struggle in the Middle East

Both Turkey and Israel have emerged as strategic beneficiaries of the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria. This dramatic shift has weakened Iran’s influence across the Middle East. However, the growing tensions between Turkey and Israel, exacerbated since last year’s war in Gaza, have escalated their competition for influence in Syria. This rivalry presents new challenges for regional and international alliances, with much anticipation surrounding how this power struggle will unfold.

In a report by The Wall Street Journal, Yaroslav Trofimov writes that Turkey and Israel, both key U.S. allies, are the main strategic winners from the Syrian regime’s downfall. Yet, their strained relationship has placed them on a potential collision course both within Syria and beyond.

Turkey’s Vision for Syria vs. Israel’s Concerns

Turkey aims to establish a “successful new Syria” under its influence, which Turkish officials believe is critical for their regional dominance. However, they fear Israeli actions could undermine these efforts.

The report highlights that while the hostility between Israel and Turkey does not yet rival the bloody and prolonged enmity between Israel and Iran, it is becoming a significant geopolitical challenge. Israel has expressed alarm over Turkey’s growing support for adversaries such as Hamas and the possibility of a Sunni Islamist-led Syria under Turkish patronage.

Israeli officials are particularly uneasy about Turkey’s expanding regional ambitions, which extend beyond Syria to former Ottoman territories, including Libya and Somalia. They fear that Turkey, under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, could evolve into a formidable counterweight to Israel in the region.

The Collapse of Iran’s “Resistance Axis”

The recent dismantling of Iran’s so-called “Resistance Axis”—spanning from Iran through Iraq and Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon—has provided Israel with a temporary sense of security. However, the rise of a new Turkish-led Sunni Islamist bloc is perceived as an emerging threat.

Israeli Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee Chairman Yuli Edelstein remarked, “Relations with Turkey are certainly bad, but they could deteriorate further. While we are not at the stage of direct threats yet, the situation in Syria could lead to clashes through Turkey-backed proxies.”

U.S. Alliances and Regional Repercussions

Turkey’s growing influence in Syria has sparked concerns among several U.S. allies in the region, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Jordan. These nations fear that the resurgence of political Islam emanating from Damascus could destabilize their own security.

Turkey, despite being the first Muslim-majority country to recognize Israel in 1949, has maintained a complex relationship with the Jewish state. While official diplomatic channels remain open, Erdoğan has repeatedly criticized Israeli policies, referring to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as the “Butcher of Gaza.”

The Kurdish Factor and Regional Rivalries

Another point of contention is the Kurdish question. The U.S. support for Kurdish armed groups in northeastern Syria has long been a source of frustration for Turkey. Erdoğan views these groups, including the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), as an extension of the PKK, a designated terrorist organization by both Turkey and the U.S.

In contrast, Israeli officials, such as Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar, have called for strengthening ties with the Kurds and other minorities in the region, framing them as “natural allies” against shared adversaries. However, experts suggest that Israel is unlikely to materially support Kurdish fighters against Turkey, given the potential geopolitical consequences.

The Golan Heights and Israeli-Turkish Tensions

Turkey has recently demanded that Israel withdraw its forces from occupied territories in southern Syria, including the Golan Heights. Ankara has accused Israel of exploiting the current chaos in Syria to expand its territorial occupation.

In response, Israel has argued that Turkey’s own military presence in Syria, dating back to 2016, undermines Ankara’s credibility on the issue of occupation. Israeli officials have pointed to Turkey’s actions in northern Syria, where it has integrated Turkish institutions, currency, and infrastructure, as evidence of its expansionist agenda.

Future Outlook: Escalation or Collaboration?

Despite the underlying tensions, analysts remain skeptical about the likelihood of an open conflict between Turkey and Israel. Both nations have benefited from the shifting dynamics in Syria, and their mutual economic and strategic interests may prevent a complete breakdown in relations.

Former Israeli National Security Advisor Yaakov Amidror noted, “Israel has long-standing ties with the Kurds, but it will not replace the U.S. role in supporting them. Israel is focused on defending its borders rather than creating proxies in Syria.”

Edelstein added, “The potential threat from Syria under Turkish influence is not imminent but could pose challenges in the medium term, particularly if Islamist militias gain strength near Israel’s borders.”

Conclusion: A Delicate Balance of Power

The rivalry between Turkey and Israel reflects a broader reshaping of the Middle East’s geopolitical landscape. As the region transitions into a post-Assad era, both nations are vying to secure their strategic interests.

While outright confrontation between the two remains unlikely, their competition for influence in Syria and beyond will undoubtedly shape the region’s future alliances and conflicts. For now, the delicate balance of power in the Middle East hinges on how Turkey and Israel navigate their divergent ambitions in the evolving landscape of Syria and the broader region.