Will New Shifts in Syria Lead to Turkish-Israeli Escalation?

Turkey has emerged as a key player in the Syrian theater following the fall of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, creating a political and security vacuum in the region. Driven by its substantial support for the Syrian opposition, these developments place Israel in a complex strategic bind as the balance of power in the region shifts dramatically.

Turkey’s Regional Aspirations

According to an article by David Ben Best published in The Jerusalem Post, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan stirred controversy with a bold statement, saying: “Just as we entered Karabakh and Libya, we will do the same in Israel.” The article interpreted this statement as a reflection of Turkey’s regional ambitions, asserting that Turkey only needs to maintain its strength to achieve its goals.

The report highlights that Turkey’s involvement in previous conflicts, such as in Nagorno-Karabakh and Libya, has been central to its strategy of supporting allies. This approach has now extended to its backing of the Syrian opposition, whose victories—largely attributed to Turkish support—could significantly shift the regional equation.

Kurdish Militias and Turkish-Israeli Tensions

The United States has claimed that Kurdish militias, such as the People’s Protection Units (YPG) and Women’s Protection Units (YPJ), have played a pivotal role in the Syrian war, particularly in combating ISIS. However, Turkey views these groups as an extension of the PKK (Kurdistan Workers’ Party), which it designates as a terrorist organization.

David Ben Best pointed out that Turkey’s military interventions in northern Syria aim to curb Kurdish influence along its borders, adding another layer of complexity to the Syrian conflict. Turkish-backed opposition groups, including Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and the Syrian National Army, have launched intensive attacks on Assad’s forces while also targeting Kurdish-controlled areas.

Amid these confrontations, Kurdish fighters have suffered significant losses, including the capture of personnel and territories. Despite their aspirations for political autonomy, the Kurds face mounting military and political pressure from multiple fronts.

Post-Assad Challenges for Israel

The fall of Assad marks a significant geopolitical turning point for Israel. As a key ally of Iran, Assad’s regime served as a vital conduit for support to Hezbollah in Lebanon. His downfall strikes a blow to the Iran-Hezbollah axis but simultaneously raises concerns over the vacuum left behind, which opposition groups could exploit.

Reports suggest that Iran-backed militias stationed in Syria may shift toward Iraq, potentially creating new regional instability. Meanwhile, Turkey may seek to capitalize on the situation to expand its influence in Syria, further straining relations with Israel.

Israel also faces potential threats from jihadist groups that might take advantage of the chaos to establish bases near Israeli borders, particularly in the Golan Heights. Moreover, there are growing fears that these groups could seize chemical weapons stockpiles and deploy them in attacks.

Strained Turkish-Israeli Relations

Turkish-Israeli relations have long been fraught with tension, exemplified by incidents like the 2010 Mavi Marmara flotilla crisis. Recent shifts in Syria have heightened concerns over the proximity of Turkish-backed forces to Israel’s northern borders.

Amid these developments, reports indicate that Syrian Kurds are seeking Israeli support. Historically, Israel has viewed the Kurds as a pro-Western ally in the region. With increasing pressure on the Kurds, they appear to be exploring new alliances to secure their protection.

Turkey’s Strategy in Northern Syria

In northern Syria, Turkish-backed opposition groups continue to advance Ankara’s interests. These forces have launched assaults on Kurdish enclaves such as Tel Rifaat, partially neutralizing the Kurdish “threat” in the region.

Strategic Implications for Israel

The shifting dynamics in Syria pose both challenges and opportunities for Israel. The fall of Assad presents a chance to disrupt the Iran-Hezbollah supply chain, yet it also introduces new risks, including heightened Turkish influence and the fragmentation of power among various actors in Syria.

David Ben Best concludes that Israel must prepare for the repercussions of these changes. The fall of Assad represents both a challenge and an opportunity, potentially reshaping the regional balance of power. As Turkey’s influence grows and multiple players vie for control in Syria, Israel must adopt precise strategies to navigate this evolving landscape.