The Alawite Sect: From Power Consolidation to Decline After Assad’s Fall

For decades, the Alawite sect served as the social and political backbone of the Assad regime, from Hafez Assad to his son Bashar. Dominating key political positions and military ranks within the Syrian regime, the Alawite community played a crucial role in sustaining Assad’s grip on power. However, with the fall of the Assad regime, questions arise about the sect’s current and future role in Syrian society and politics, especially considering its historical ties to the regime and its stance during the Syrian revolution.

Despite their privileged position, the Alawites remain a minority in Syria, raising important questions about their identity, geographic distribution, and political role in a post-Assad era.

Where Are the Alawites Today?

The Alawites in Syria represent a segment of the broader Arab Alawite community, estimated at approximately 4 million people, primarily residing in a crescent-shaped region stretching from northern Lebanon to the Cilician plains in Turkey.

Among Arab Alawites, Syrian Alawites constitute the largest subgroup, comprising about 12–15% of Syria’s population—or roughly 3 million people as of 2016 statistics provided by the Syrian regime.

Geographically, Alawites are predominantly concentrated along Syria’s Mediterranean coast in Latakia and Tartus provinces, with smaller populations in Damascus and its surrounding countryside, as well as in parts of Homs and Hama. Most live in small, rural villages scattered across the coastal mountains.

The Alawite sect is divided into four main tribes:

1. 1. The Khayyatin

1. 1. The Matawira

1. 1. The Haddadin

1. 1. The Kalbiyya—the tribe to which the Assad family belongs.

Each tribe includes smaller allied clans, reflecting the complex social fabric of the Alawite community.

The Alawite Faith and History

The Alawite faith has roots tied to Mohammad bin Nusayr, who emerged in 9th-century Iraq as part of the extremist Shiite factions known as Ghulat. However, according to some Twelver Shia sources, the Alawites are considered a sect of Imami Ja’fari Shia Islam, sharing beliefs in the twelve infallible imams.

The term Alawite itself means a follower of Ali, the cousin and son-in-law of Prophet Muhammad. Historically, Alawites faced persecution and isolation from the dominant Sunni rulers of Islamic caliphates. This marginalization contributed to their geographic concentration in mountainous areas, where they developed a distinct identity over centuries.

The Alawite Shift After Assad’s Fall

Prior to the Syrian revolution, the country’s population was predominantly Sunni, constituting 80–85% of the population, with significant Sunni communities in Aleppo, Damascus, Homs, and other major cities. The Alawites, as an organized minority, wielded disproportionate influence under the Assad regimes.

However, the demographics of Syria were drastically altered during the war. By 2020, Sunnis represented only about half of Syria’s population, with millions displaced as refugees or migrants due to war-related violence.

Despite representing only 9% of Syria’s pre-war population, the Alawites managed to expand their demographic footprint, reportedly accounting for up to 40–50% of the population at the height of the Assad regime’s power during the war. This was facilitated by forced displacement, demographic engineering, and control of key territories.

Post-Assad, the return of displaced populations to their homes is expected to reduce the Alawites’ geographic and political dominance, potentially limiting their influence to their traditional strongholds in the coastal regions.

Alawite Support and Opposition to Assad

Under Bashar Assad, the Alawite community appeared unified in support of his regime. However, this narrative obscures the internal divisions and dissent within the community.

While many Alawites were loyal to Assad, fearing the loss of privileges acquired under his rule, others were discontented with the regime’s exploitation of their identity for political gain. Early in the Syrian revolution, secular Alawite opposition emerged, expressing discontent with Assad’s policies and attempting to challenge the narrative of sectarian loyalty.

Early Alawite Dissent

In 2011, protests erupted in coastal cities like Baniyas and neighborhoods in Latakia, traditionally Sunni-majority areas, with participation from Alawite activists. Some Alawites joined protests against the regime, calling for reforms and denouncing Assad’s authoritarianism.

The Role of Secular Alawite Movements

Several opposition movements led by Alawites sought to distance the community from the regime:

• • Nahil al-Sahil Movement: Active in the coastal regions, this movement faced brutal crackdowns, with many members tortured or forced into exile.

• • The 2013 Cairo Conference: This gathering of 250 Alawite opposition figures denounced Assad’s claim of protecting minorities and affirmed that the Alawites’ natural place was alongside the Syrian revolution.

• • Ghad Syria Movement (2015): Established in Istanbul, this political initiative united Alawite opposition leaders with figures from diverse Syrian communities, rejecting the narrative that the Alawite sect’s survival depended on Assad’s rule.

By 2023, as economic conditions in Syria worsened, Alawite participation in anti-regime protests increased. Public discontent with Assad’s policies prompted Alawite influencers to openly call for regime change, highlighting the community’s growing dissatisfaction with the status quo.

The Rise and Decline of Alawite Leaders

The Assad regime relied heavily on Alawite figures to maintain its grip on power. Many of these individuals played pivotal roles in the regime’s military and security apparatus:

1. 1. Maher Assad: Bashar Assad’s brother and leader of the Fourth Armored Division, accused of overseeing brutal crackdowns and chemical weapon usage.

1. 1. Suhail Hassan (“The Tiger”): A notorious general known for his ruthless military campaigns against opposition forces.

1. 1. Ali Mamlouk: A key intelligence advisor and former head of military intelligence.

1. 1. Hossam Louqa: Director of General Intelligence, implicated in mass detentions and torture.

Post-Assad, many of these figures face international sanctions, war crimes accusations, or exile.

Alawite Anxiety in the Post-Assad Era

As opposition forces consolidate control over previously regime-held territories, including Latakia and Tartus, Alawites in coastal regions are grappling with uncertainty. Thousands of Alawite families have fled to Lebanon, fearing retribution, while others remain in their ancestral villages, relying on opposition leaders’ assurances of safety.

In major cities like Latakia and Tartus, public celebrations marked the regime’s fall, including the toppling of Hafez Assad’s statues. Notably, religious leaders in Qardaha—the Assad family’s hometown—issued statements endorsing reconciliation and collaboration with opposition forces, including HTS.

Historical Context of Alawite Ascendancy

The Alawites’ political rise began under French colonial rule in 1922, when they were granted their first autonomous state encompassing the coastal mountain region. Post-independence, figures like Hafez Assad exploited opportunities within the military and Ba’ath Party to solidify Alawite dominance.

Assad’s rule systematically integrated Alawites into key positions of power, ensuring their loyalty while marginalizing dissenting voices within the community. His consolidation of power set the stage for Bashar Assad’s regime, but also sowed the seeds of Alawite overreliance on the regime for protection and privilege.

Conclusion

The fall of the Assad regime marks a critical turning point for the Alawite community. Once a dominant minority under Assad’s rule, the sect now faces an uncertain future, grappling with potential retribution, displacement, and diminished influence.

As Syria rebuilds, the challenge lies in integrating the Alawites into a new national framework that prioritizes reconciliation, justice, and equal representation for all communities. The lessons of history underscore the importance of avoiding sectarian exploitation, ensuring that no group becomes synonymous with autocratic rule again.