Israeli Warnings of the “Emerging Turkish Threat”

Various Israeli circles have issued warnings about what they call Turkey’s “dangerous” role in Syria, spearheading a “Muslim Brotherhood axis” in collaboration with Qatar. This development, they claim, poses a significant threat to “Israeli interests,” especially following the gas deal signed between Israel and Greece.

Colonel (Res.) Amit Yogev, former Deputy Head of the Palestinian Affairs Section in the Israeli military’s Planning Directorate, wrote in an article for Maariv that “a quiet but critical strategic process is currently unfolding. Turkey, together with Qatar, is taking control of Syria and beginning to shape a new regional order.”

Yogev described this as a reemergence of the Ottoman Empire in the form of what he called “Erdoganistan.” He claimed this new axis, led by the Sunni Muslim Brotherhood, is replacing the Shiite resistance axis, which he argued collapsed after Syria was removed from the equation. He asserted, “Any vacuum will inevitably be filled, and Erdogan is already taking rapid steps to do so.”

Turkey’s Ambitions in Syria

Yogev pointed to several statements by senior Turkish officials reflecting Turkey’s vision for Syria. He alleged that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan views Syria as an extension of a “Greater Turkey” and that high-ranking officials have spoken of offering aid to “a new Syria,” including addressing internal issues such as the Kurdish question.

One significant recent development, according to Bloomberg, is a statement by the Turkish Minister of Transportation. The minister reportedly announced Turkey’s intention to negotiate a maritime border agreement with Syria in the Eastern Mediterranean, a deal that could expand both countries’ influence in energy exploration.

The Turkish-Qatari Alliance

Yogev claimed that Turkey and Qatar are forming a “radical Sunni Islamist axis” in Syria, with Qatar providing financial backing and Turkey supplying manpower, projects, and military support. He speculated that Erdogan’s plans might include reviving Turkey’s role as a central hub for exporting gas to Europe. He linked this ambition to Germany’s recent agreement to import liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Qatar, suggesting a pipeline could run from Qatar through Syria to Turkey.

Israel’s Dilemma

Faced with these developments, Yogev argued that Israel is confronting two options:

1. 1. Oppose the new government in Syria, viewing it as “a wolf in sheep’s clothing”—a radical Sunni regime temporarily adopting a moderate facade for international legitimacy.

1. 1. Engage with the new Syrian government to influence the shape of the emerging regional order and counter Erdogan’s ambitions.

The Changing Regional Power Dynamics

Maariv military correspondent Avi Ashkenazi warned that the fall of the Assad regime in Syria would significantly reshape the Middle East, with Turkey re-emerging as a regional power potentially entering into direct conflict with Israel.

Ashkenazi accused Turkey of working covertly to influence the Syrian uprising since 2011, investing economic and military resources to suppress Kurdish influence and prevent the establishment of a Kurdish corridor connecting Turkey and Syria.

He argued that Turkey’s ambitions in the region are imperialist, seeking a return to a form of Ottoman dominance, starting with Syria.

Strategic Infrastructure Projects

Ashkenazi also highlighted Turkey’s plans for major infrastructure projects in Syria. These include reconstructing the Istanbul-Damascus Hejaz railway line, developing highways connecting Turkey and Syria, and building Turkish-operated airports and seaports in Syrian territory. He argued that such moves could deny Cyprus access to its maritime economic zones and disrupt the planned Israel-Greece-Cyprus gas pipeline.

According to Hay Eytan Cohen, an expert on Turkish affairs at the Moshe Dayan Center at Tel Aviv University, “Turkey is rapidly filling the vacuum left by Iran and Russia’s withdrawal from Syria.” He noted that recent statements by Turkish officials, including Erdogan, have clarified Turkey’s intentions in Kurdish and other regions of Syria, as well as southern areas of the country.

The Emerging Regional Alliances

Cohen predicted the emergence of two major alliances in the region:

1. 1. Turkey-led Alliance: Turkey, Syria, Lebanon, and Libya.

1. 1. Israel-led Alliance: Israel, Greece, Cyprus, Jordan, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia.

He argued that Israeli security officials are closely monitoring Turkey’s moves and are surprised at how quickly the situation in Syria is evolving.

The Role of Iran

In another article, Ashkenazi wrote that Iran has recently suffered significant setbacks across the region, including the weakening of its allies such as Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Assad regime in Syria, and its Shiite militias in Iraq. He claimed that even the Houthis in Yemen are beginning to act independently of Iran, launching missiles at Israel.

However, Ashkenazi cautioned against underestimating Iran’s ambitions and its desire to establish itself as a regional military and religious empire.

Erdogan’s Vision and Regional Implications

Turkey, under Erdogan’s leadership, is actively pursuing a revival of Ottoman-era influence, with Syria as the cornerstone of this strategy. The withdrawal of Iran and Russia from Syria has opened the door for Turkey to expand its presence. This shift could escalate into two distinct regional alliances, as highlighted by Cohen.

Two Keys to the Region’s Future

Ashkenazi identified two critical factors shaping the Middle East’s future:

1. 1. U.S. Policy under President-elect Donald Trump: How will Trump approach the region’s challenges, including Iran, the Middle East, and Syria?

1. 1. Israel’s Next Moves: Following its military resurgence after the events of October 7, Israel faces key decisions on how to navigate the rapidly shifting dynamics in Gaza, Syria, and beyond.

The Economic and European Connection

Israeli columnist Maya Cohen argued that Turkey’s moves align with European interests, particularly their desire to address the Syrian refugee crisis. Erdogan has positioned Turkey as the solution, reportedly telling Europe, “If you want refugees to return to Syria, open your coffers and invest in the new Syria.”

Economically, Cohen highlighted Turkey’s growing collaboration with Qatar, describing it as “a strategic marriage.” She noted that Qatar provides financial security to Turkey, strengthening their alliance and accelerating Turkey’s regional ambitions.