Secret Talks Between KSA and Israel to Advance Open Normalization

The Israeli newspaper Haaretz has revealed secret negotiations between Saudi Arabia and Israel aimed at advancing public normalization. The deal, which is likely to materialize after Donald Trump assumes office in the United States, reportedly includes significant Saudi concessions regarding the establishment of a Palestinian state.

The report stated that Israel and Saudi Arabia have recently achieved a breakthrough in normalization talks, which could also facilitate an agreement to release Israeli prisoners held by Hamas and bring an end to the war in Gaza.

Sources familiar with the negotiations disclosed that instead of a clear Israeli recognition of a Palestinian state, as Saudi Arabia had previously demanded, both sides have agreed on a vague Israeli commitment to a “pathway toward a Palestinian state.” This would allow Saudi Arabia to claim it has upheld its commitment to the Palestinians without obtaining concrete recognition.

Recent Developments in Secret Negotiations

In recent weeks, Saudi Arabia and Israel have held secret discussions to formalize ties publicly and end the conflict in Gaza. These discussions have reportedly accelerated following the ceasefire agreement with Lebanon.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is managing the negotiations through Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, keeping most of the government and the security cabinet unaware of the details.

The United States is acting as a mediator and guarantor in these talks, with coordination involving both President Joe Biden’s administration and President-elect Donald Trump’s team. The upcoming Trump administration is expected to offer Saudi Arabia benefits, such as a U.S.-Saudi defense agreement and the sale of advanced American weapons systems to the Kingdom.

Saudi Concessions on Palestinian Recognition

Saudi Arabia has long demanded that Israel recognize a Palestinian state. In September, Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud announced the formation of an alliance of Arab nations and international organizations to push for such recognition.

However, sources close to Netanyahu believe that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the Kingdom’s de facto ruler, has little personal interest in formally recognizing a Palestinian state. Instead, he seeks symbolic progress on the issue to secure domestic political and religious support for the deal.

Netanyahu reportedly believes that his political base will accept the vague phrasing of a “pathway toward a Palestinian state,” as it avoids committing Israel to concrete actions.

Prisoner Swap and Gaza Reconstruction

The normalization of relations could pave the way for a deal to release prisoners held by Hamas. Saudi Arabia is reportedly seeking to end the conflict in Gaza and play a role in the reconstruction of the region.

The Kingdom feels obligated to assist the Palestinians in Gaza, which has been almost entirely devastated. Meanwhile, Israel is interested in ensuring the involvement of moderate Arab countries in Gaza’s reconstruction and the inflow of Saudi funds to the area post-conflict.

Proposed Two-Phase Agreement

According to reports, the proposed deal will be implemented in two phases:

1. 1. Phase One:

       

      • • The release of women, patients, and individuals over 50 years old held by Hamas.
      • • In return, Israel will release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, including those with high sentences.
      • • A temporary cessation of fighting in Gaza, with Israel gradually withdrawing, though the timing and details remain unclear.

1. 1. Phase Two:

       

      • • Signing a normalization agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
      • • Saudi Arabia, along with an alliance that includes the Palestinian Authority, will lead the reconstruction of Gaza while ensuring Israel’s security along its southern border.

Internal Resistance in Israel

There is opposition within the Israeli coalition to the proposed framework for the prisoner deal and to the involvement of the Palestinian Authority in Gaza’s reconstruction. This raises questions about whether the agreement will be approved by the Israeli government.