Iran Doubles Winter Military Drills: What’s Trump’s Role in This?

Iran has intensified its military exercises in preparation for the inauguration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump in two weeks, according to a report by the Financial Times.

The report, translated by Arabi21, highlights that the Islamic Republic is demonstrating its strength through extensive winter military drills. These maneuvers come after setbacks in the Middle East and in response to Trump’s election as U.S. president.

On Monday, General Ali Mohammad Naeini, spokesperson for the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), announced the commencement of approximately 30 ground, naval, and air drills in the western and southern provinces, set to continue until mid-March.

These exercises, a collaboration between the IRGC and the conventional army, aim to counter “new threats,” though specific details were not disclosed.

Escalated Drills and Strategic Objectives

Speaking to the Financial Times, Naeini stated, “The number of drills has nearly doubled this year compared to last year, in response to the evolving threat landscape.” He emphasized that, “These exercises are larger in scale, more advanced in technology, and involve new weaponry and extensive participation from battalions experienced in real combat operations.”

As part of the drills, Iranian forces will conduct exercises near the Natanz nuclear facility, a critical center for uranium enrichment. The largest naval drill is set to take place in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage for one-third of the world’s oil supply, according to the report.

Iran has previously issued implicit threats to close the strait in retaliation for actions restricting crude oil exports.

Concerns Over Trump’s Return

The exercises began shortly before Trump’s inauguration, heightening concerns in Tehran’s political circles. Members of Trump’s incoming administration have pledged to reinstate the “maximum pressure” campaign, a policy from Trump’s first term aimed at countering Iran’s nuclear programs.

During his first presidency, Trump withdrew from the nuclear agreement signed between Iran and world powers, reimposing stringent sanctions.

Iran is also under intense strain after a series of blows to its regime and allied groups since the outbreak of war in the region following October 7, 2023.

While Iranian diplomats have expressed openness to negotiating with the incoming U.S. administration, they remain wary of escalating tensions that could lead to a broader military confrontation, including potential Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

A Defiant Stance

Iranian officials have sought to project a defiant image. Naeini declared, “The enemy seeks to create a false sense of enthusiasm, misinterpret the situation, and portray the Islamic Republic as weak,” referring to the U.S. and Israel.

He added in his remarks to the Financial Times, “Iran is preparing for a large-scale and complex conflict while remaining confident in its deterrent capabilities.”

The report noted that the unexpected collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, Iran’s most critical ally in the region, dealt a significant blow to Tehran’s Middle East strategies.

Syria served as a conduit for Iranian weapons and funding to Hezbollah. The regime’s fall crippled Iran’s ability to maintain the so-called “Axis of Resistance,” which includes Hezbollah, Iraqi Shia militias, the Houthis in Yemen, and the former Assad regime.

Display of Strength

As part of its efforts to display resilience, around 100,000 members of the Basij, a paramilitary arm of the IRGC, are expected to hold a massive march in Tehran on Friday. Naeini stated, “We have considered all potential scenarios and are conducting realistic and appropriate drills. The Islamic Republic will not initiate any war in the region but will respond firmly to any threat.”