How Syria Became Hostile Ground for Iran with No Room for Its Influence

The Wall Street Journal reported, citing several of its correspondents, that Iran has significantly withdrawn from Syria following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, dealing a major blow to its regional ambitions.

According to U.S. and Arab officials quoted in the report, translated by Arabi21, Iranian forces largely withdrew from Syria after the fall of Assad’s regime in December 2024.

The report noted that this withdrawal marked the end of decades-long efforts by Tehran to use Syria as a cornerstone of its broader regional strategy, which focused on building alliances and partnerships with regimes and armed groups to expand its influence and wage proxy wars against the United States and Israel.

The Iranian Withdrawal

The report detailed how Iran-backed militias in Syria had previously launched attacks on U.S. forces and assisted in assaults on Israel. However, a senior U.S. official revealed that members of the IRGC’s Quds Force had now retreated to Iran, and allied groups had largely disbanded.

The Wall Street Journal stated that Iran invested billions of dollars and sent thousands of military personnel and loyal fighters to Syria following the Arab Spring uprisings in 2011 to support Assad’s regime.

For years, Syria served as Iran’s principal ally in the Middle East, acting as a crucial land bridge for Hezbollah, the most powerful group in the so-called “Axis of Resistance.”

Yet, during the dramatic 11-day collapse of Assad’s military last year, Iran, already weakened by Israeli airstrikes on its assets and partners in the region, began withdrawing its personnel.

A Crumbling Regional Strategy

The report revealed that armed opposition groups in Idlib province, in coordination with other factions, launched an offensive against the regime in late November. Iran had already grown frustrated with Assad, who had remained passive during the multi-front conflict between Tehran and Israel.

At its peak, Iran’s network spanned across Syria, with arms convoys supplying Hezbollah with military equipment. Thousands of Iranian soldiers and affiliated fighters were stationed in Syria, particularly in the eastern regions, Damascus, Aleppo, and beyond.

Western and Arab officials reported that most of the Iranian forces in eastern Syria, including IRGC officers and fighters from Afghanistan, Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria, fled to the border town of Al-Qaim on the Iraqi side. Others flew from Damascus to Tehran, while Hezbollah fighters retreated overland to Lebanon.

A Rapid Retreat

In the aftermath of Assad’s fall, the road from Damascus to Beirut was reportedly lined with destroyed military vehicles, including tanks and mobile rocket launchers, as troops scrambled to evacuate equipment to Lebanon.

The report noted that this swift withdrawal marked a dramatic shift in the regional power dynamics. The rise of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and its allied factions in Damascus undercut the influence of Assad’s former backers, Russia and Iran.

Iran’s strategic foothold in Syria, which allowed it to transfer weapons and personnel to Hezbollah in Lebanon and position forces near its arch-enemy Israel, was significantly weakened by the collapse of Assad’s regime. This, in turn, diminished Iran’s ability to rebuild Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, both of which suffered recent Israeli strikes.

Challenges to Iran’s Return

With thousands of Iranian soldiers and allies fleeing Syria, large amounts of military equipment and weapons were abandoned, later destroyed by Israeli forces or captured by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and other groups, according to Western diplomats.

Mick Mulroy, a former Pentagon official and CIA officer, said, “The collapse of Assad’s regime and the retreat of Iranian forces have severely reduced Iran’s influence in the region and its ability to support the once-powerful organizations that served its national security goals.”

Syria’s new leaders, who fought and lost members in the protracted war during Iran’s support for Assad, are now intent on preventing Tehran from reestablishing its presence. Unlike Russia, which retained its military bases in Syria and is negotiating with the new government, Iran faces outright hostility.

Ahmad Al-Sharaa, a leader of the opposition, remarked in an interview with Saudi Arabia’s Asharq Al-Awsat, “By removing Iranian militias and closing Syria to Iranian influence, we have served the region’s interests and achieved what diplomacy and external pressures failed to accomplish.”

Strategic Implications

The report highlighted how Iran’s attempts to sustain Hezbollah through direct financial transfers to Lebanon are now fraught with challenges. A commercial plane carrying Iranian diplomats was delayed and inspected at Beirut International Airport last week.

U.S. officials believe Iran may attempt to rebuild its land bridge to Syria, but this effort is unlikely to succeed in the near term. A senior U.S. official stated, “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is unlikely to allow the IRGC to reestablish its military presence due to its long-standing support for Assad.”

The report concluded that Iran’s broader regional strategy faces serious setbacks, with concerns that it may attempt to exploit future instability in Syria to reassert influence.

Andrew Tabler, a former Syria director at the U.S. National Security Council, described the situation as “a catastrophic failure for Iran,” adding that the extent of the setback depends on whether Syria remains unified or fractures further.

Internal and External Pressures

The report also touched on growing unrest within Iran due to its worsening economic crisis and rising inflation. Israeli airstrikes in October destroyed key Iranian air defenses and missile production facilities, further exposing the regime to future attacks.

With its arsenal depleted following missile strikes on Israel last year, and a potential new round of U.S. sanctions under a returning Trump administration, Iran faces a tough road ahead.

Meanwhile, Iranian hardliners are calling for an open rebellion against Syria’s new leaders. IRGC-affiliated Sepah News predicted a “counter-revolution” in Syria against what it described as “takfiri terrorists,” a term often used by Iran to refer to Sunni militant groups.

Amid mounting regional and domestic challenges, Iran’s influence in Syria and the broader Middle East seems to have entered a period of steep decline.