No Certainty about Trump’s Orientation: Israel Anticipates an Iranian Preemptive Strike

As the inauguration date of the new U.S. President, Donald Trump, draws near, the war of words and threats between the Israeli occupation and the Islamic Republic of Iran is intensifying. Questions loom large: will Israel launch an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, or will Tehran initiate a preemptive strike on Israel first?

Within Hebrew-language media, conflicting reports abound. On one hand, it is claimed that Israel is preparing a decisive blow against Iran’s nuclear facilities. On the other, it is suggested that Iran is primed to launch an unprecedented missile strike against Israel. Between these divergent reports, both sides appear to be bracing for possible military actions. Yet, the overall climate remains shrouded in uncertainty—further complicated by the “multifaceted” stance of the incoming U.S. administration, compelling each side to prepare for every potential scenario.

Third Strike Preparedness?

Hebrew media recently noted that the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, on Wednesday discussed the military’s readiness for the possibility of carrying out a “third” and more comprehensive strike on Iran. At the same time, reports indicate that Tel Aviv is weighing whether the United States, under Trump’s presidency, might adopt a more aggressive posture against the Islamic Republic.

Though these stories may serve to relay specific messages, they also reflect the genuine uncertainty within the Israeli establishment concerning the upcoming U.S. policies toward Iran. Consequently, Israeli officials are in “wait-and-see” mode, hoping to discern the new administration’s intentions. During this waiting period, Israel is continuing to direct threats at Tehran as part of its pressure tactics—also in anticipation of how Washington’s posture might take shape, whether it be confrontation or negotiation.

Signals from Trump

Last month, Donald Trump purportedly “suggested” during a private meeting with Netanyahu’s envoys—chief among them Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer—that he would endorse an Israeli airstrike on Iranian nuclear facilities. Dermer later remarked that Trump “left me with the impression that he would back such a strike, or perhaps even carry it out himself.”

A month after that leak, Hebrew media outlets revisited the question that remains unanswered: Will Trump stand by his promise and his earlier hints? The situation remains ambiguous, especially after Trump’s statement on Tuesday in response to whether he might launch a military attack against Iran: “It’s a military strategy, and I’m not going to answer a question about our military strategy. Only a fool would do that.”

Iran Prepares for a Missile Response

According to Hebrew sources, Iranian forces may already be preparing to launch missile attacks on Israel—attacks which Israeli intelligence anticipates could be “unprecedented.”

These assessments do not solely rely on overt military and political statements emanating from Tehran; they also draw on signs of potential internal tension—economic, political, and security—within Iran. Israeli analysts speculate that if challenges mount at home, the Iranian leadership might seek to divert attention by engaging in a direct confrontation with Israel.

A State of High Alert

In a paradoxical twist, various Hebrew media reports claim that Israel’s Chief of Staff, Herzi Halevi, has placed the occupying army on high alert. The assumption is that Iran may carry out attacks on Israel in the coming days. A “Walla” report indicates that Israeli security circles are keeping a close watch on Iran’s ongoing military drills—encompassing air, naval, and ground forces—citing the 1973 war as a historical precedent when such drills evolved into a surprise attack.

Unprecedented Missile Strikes?

Analyses by leading research centers in Tel Aviv suggest that Iran could target a wide “arc of objectives” if it were to launch missiles at Israel. Potential targets may include:

• • Highly sensitive military installations

• • Offshore gas exploration and extraction facilities

• • Civilian infrastructure within the Israeli interior

One report even stresses the parallels between current conditions and the precursors to the 1973 conflict, where exercises swiftly transitioned into full-scale warfare.

Setting the Stage

So far, the seemingly contradictory positions in Hebrew media appear aimed at “preparing the field”—both politically and militarily—through persistent incitement, threats, and attempts to shape the mindset of policymakers in Washington and Tehran. This strategy serves the Israeli occupation’s interests regardless of which path the U.S. under Trump ultimately takes: a potential military strike or negotiations. By promoting the possibility of an American-led offensive against Iran—or at least hinting at it—Tel Aviv hopes to pressure Tehran into making concessions, especially if direct talks between Washington and Tehran materialize down the line. Any such negotiations would likely extend beyond Iran’s nuclear program to address issues interwoven with Israel’s broader regional goals and interests.