The Fall of Assad Thwarted an Israeli-Emirati Plan to Partition Syria

A report by the British website Middle East Eye has revealed that toppling the regime of deposed Syrian President Bashar al-Assad thwarted a highly dangerous Israeli-Emirati plan to divide Syria.

The website notes that Israel had intended to keep Assad in power under Emirati tutelage, while forging military and strategic ties with the Kurds in northeastern Syria and the Druze in the south.

According to the report, Assad’s ouster disrupted an Israeli conspiracy to break Syria into three blocs in order to sever its relationships with Iran and Hezbollah, based on accounts from regional security sources familiar with the plot.

Israel’s Intended Division of Syria

Israel’s plan entailed establishing strategic and military links with the Kurds in northeastern Syria and the Druze in the south, while allowing Assad to remain in Damascus, financed and overseen by the United Arab Emirates.

It also aimed to curb Turkey’s influence in Syria—particularly in Idlib and the northwest, home to Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and other rebel factions backed by Ankara. Earlier this month, a swift offensive by such groups ended up bringing down Assad’s government.

Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs Gideon Sa’ar hinted at this scheme in a speech a month ago, stating that Israel needs to reach out to the Kurds and Druze in both Syria and Lebanon. He added that there are “political and security facets” that must be taken into account.

Sa’ar remarked:

“We must recognize developments in this context and understand that, in a region where we’ll always be a minority, we can naturally form alliances with other minorities.”

Unexpected Collapse of Assad’s Forces

Events, however, overtook the plan when pro-Assad forces collapsed in Homs and Hama, leaving the road to Damascus wide open. By that time, rebels had already breached the front lines in Aleppo, Syria’s largest city, taking control without a fight—a turning point in the country’s 13-year civil war.

In the early hours of Sunday, December 8, Syrian Prime Minister Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali appeared in a video proclaiming his willingness to cede power peacefully.

In response, Ahmad al-Sharaa—head of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, known by his nom de guerre Abu Mohammad al-Jolani—expressed readiness to keep Jalali in power until an orderly transition could be arranged.

Yet, even as HTS advanced on the capital, the Emirati and Jordanian ambassadors in Syria made frantic efforts to prevent it from capturing Damascus, according to security sources.

Jordan encouraged the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and allied factions in the south to reach the capital ahead of HTS.

Security sources added:

“Before Jolani’s arrival, the two ambassadors arranged for FSA fighters to escort the Syrian prime minister from his home to the Four Seasons Hotel, where the plan was to formally hand over state institutions to the southern rebel factions.”

Jalali was filmed en route to the hotel under the guard of soldiers from the Houran region in southern Syria—part of the Fifth Corps, a military force consisting of ex-rebels who had earlier reconciled with the Syrian government.

One source stated:

“Jalali hesitated and contacted Jolani, who told him: ‘Don’t do this.’ Jalali heeded that advice.”

Israel’s Reaction

When Israel realized it could not stop HTS from taking control of the country, it began destroying Syrian military assets, including scuttling its naval fleet in Latakia and occupying territory such as Mount Hermon (Jabal al-Sheikh)—Syria’s highest mountain near the Lebanese border and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.

A source explained:

“These weapons were safe under Assad’s rule. That’s how invested Israel was in keeping Assad in power. But they became unsafe in the hands of the rebels.”

Officials in Jordan and the United Arab Emirates expressed alarm at HTS’s takeover and the possibility of an Islamist-led government in Syria, even though the movement pledged representation for all factions and faiths, according to Ahmad al-Sharaa’s assurances.

Since the outbreak of the Arab Spring uprisings in 2011, the UAE has been at the forefront of a counter-revolutionary effort opposing democracy in Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, and Yemen.

“Last Moments” of Assad’s Rule

Some details about the final hours of Assad’s rule were partially confirmed by Ibrahim al-Amin, editor-in-chief of the al-Akhbar newspaper, who is known to reflect Hezbollah’s viewpoint.

Al-Amin wrote that Assad was so convinced the Emiratis would rescue him that he waited “until the final hours” before fleeing Damascus.

An aide to Assad, who remained with him until his last hours in the capital, recounted that the deposed president still believed “something major” would happen to halt the rebel advance. He was convinced that the “Arab and international community” would prefer him to stay in power rather than see an Islamist government emerge in Syria.

Assad realized the game was up after Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan persuaded his Russian and Iranian counterparts—Sergey Lavrov and Abbas Araghchi, who were attending a conference in Qatar—not to intervene militarily.

Israeli-Emirati Plot for Syria

The Israeli government’s plan to partition Syria had been taking shape for weeks. Notably, the ceasefire with Hezbollah in Lebanon—agreed upon at the end of last month—was on track for implementation.

UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan intensified his contacts with the Druze community in Israel, meeting with Sheikh Mowafaq Tarif, the Druze spiritual leader in Israel, in Abu Dhabi on December 7.

A week prior, the United States and the UAE held talks on using the potential lifting of sanctions as leverage to make Assad sever ties with Iran and close arms supply routes across Syria, which are critical for rearming Hezbollah.