Signs of a UAE-Led Counter-Revolution Emerging in Syria

The Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar has reported the emergence of signs of a UAE-led counter-revolution in Syria, originating from the city of Daraa. This development is seen as part of Abu Dhabi’s ongoing efforts to undermine and combat the Arab Spring revolutions.

According to the newspaper, Syrian businessman Khaled Al-Mahamid, a prominent figure from Daraa who resides in the UAE, recently stated that the surrender of arms to the new Syrian leadership will only occur after the establishment of an authority representing all Syrian components.

Al-Mahamid criticized the “unilateral political management” in Damascus but refrained from invoking any sectarian or ethnic group, such as Alawites, Druze, or Kurds. Instead, he spoke on behalf of a regionally defined group specific to southern Syria.

The report also highlighted Al-Mahamid’s familial connection to Ahmed Al-Awda, the commander of the so-called Eighth Brigade, stationed in southern Syria. Al-Awda is often described as a competitor to the leader of the new Syrian administration, Ahmed Al-Sharaa. The brigade had briefly entered Damascus before Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) but withdrew, leaving the city to HTS.

This withdrawal, according to the newspaper, was not due to altruism but rather a recognition that the brigade could not maintain a foothold in the capital. HTS, backed by Turkey, had advanced from the north, toppling one Syrian city after another under agreements brokered by Ankara. These agreements led to the withdrawal of Russian forces and the retreat of Iran and its allies from Syrian territory.

Daraa as a Model for Future Syrian Developments

The report described Daraa as a microcosm of what Syria might experience in the future. The region has not aligned with the preferences of Syria’s new rulers, as it possesses all the elements needed to sustain itself.

“Daraa is Syria’s gateway to the Arab world,” the report stated, highlighting that, unlike Syria’s border with Iraq, Daraa’s position allows it to play this role effectively. Additionally, the region enjoys financial backing from Syrian expatriates like Al-Mahamid or directly from the UAE.

The UAE has been vocal about its dissatisfaction with the changes in Syria. Recently, it halted flights to and from Damascus, reversing its earlier decision to resume air travel before the fall of the Assad regime.

Unlike Idlib, Daraa benefited from arrangements made after the 2015 transformations, which marked the beginning of the end of the first phase of post-revolution events. Russia played a pivotal role in these settlements, providing security to Daraa while maintaining the presence of local factions.

Potential for Escalation

The situation in Daraa has the potential to escalate if the transitional process falters in other regions, such as northeastern Syria (home to Kurdish groups), Suwayda (which shares a socio-political connection with Daraa), the coastal regions, or any other area with groups fearing exclusion.

If instability spreads across Syria, countries like the UAE and Egypt—nations that view the recent changes as a threat to their security—may seize the opportunity for direct intervention. This could derail the entire transitional process, plunging Syria into further uncertainty and opening the door to unpredictable developments.

The report further noted that the UAE, which remains apprehensive about any Islamic governance in the Arab world, may exploit such instability to protect its interests and counteract potential shifts in regional power dynamics.