Will the ceasefire deal actually end Israel’s war on Gaza?

Israel and Hamas have agreed to a ceasefire deal in Gaza – but there are still several hurdles to be navigated to achieve a full end to hostilities.

Qatar and the US announced on Wednesday that a three-phased deal has been agreed for a ceasefire that would take effect on Sunday 19 January. From that date, the first phase of the deal, which is set to last 42 days, will begin.

A senior Hamas official sent a copy of the final agreement to Middle East Eye on Wednesday.

The document specified that the first phase will involve the exchange of Israeli captives and Palestinian prisoners, the return of internally displaced Palestinian civilians to their homes in northern Gaza, and the transfer of wounded Palestinian combatants and civilians to Egypt via the Rafah crossing.

It will also involve a retreat of Israeli forces to a 700-metre perimeter along the boundary between Israel and Gaza.

A second phase, in which all Israeli captives will be released in return for a total Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, is still to be discussed. 

That would be followed by a third phase, in which both sides would return the bodies of slain captives and prisoners, and an announcement would be made on a three- to five-year reconstruction plan overseen by international actors. 

But obstacles remain as to whether phase one will indeed begin on Sunday, and whether agreements can be struck for the second and third phases.

Israeli cabinet meeting postponed

Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, on Thursday accused Hamas of reneging on parts of the deal.

“Hamas reneges on parts of the agreement reached with the mediators and Israel in an effort to extort last-minute concessions,” Netanyahu said. “The Israeli cabinet will not convene until the mediators notify Israel that Hamas has accepted all elements of the agreement.”

The cabinet had been due to meet on Thursday morning to ratify the deal, but it has been postponed. 

Netanyahu said that, among other things, Hamas was demanding the identities of “terrorists” to be released “contrary to a specific clause that grants Israel the veto power over the release of mass murderers who are symbols of terrorism”. 

A Hamas official denied the allegation to Qatari outlet Al-Araby Al-Jadeed, insisting that the Palestinian group was committed to the deal. 

Israeli public broadcaster Kan reported that rifts within Netanyahu’s coalition may have contributed to the postponement of the cabinet meeting. That includes uncertainty around whether Bezalel Smotrich, the far-right finance minister, will withdraw his party from the government in protest against the ceasefire agreement. 

Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir, the far-right national security minister, have reiterated their rejection of the deal this week. 

Smotrich’s Religious Zionism party said on Thursday that its membership of Netanyahu’s coalition hinges on a guarantee that the war will not end until Hamas is completely militarily defeated. 

The party said it would remain in government only if Netanyahu promises to resume the fighting after the conclusion of the first phase of the agreement. 

Zvi Sukkot, a Religious Zionism MP, told Kan Radio: “In all likelihood, we will resign from the government.” 

If Smotrich’s party withdraws its seven MPs from the coalition, Netanyahu’s government will still have a very slim majority in parliament. 

Far-right protests

Israel’s government has faced backlash from protesters over the deal, too. 

Families of soldiers killed in Gaza joined protests outside Israel’s parliament, the Knesset, in Jerusalem on Thursday, demanding that Israel continues its war. 

Religious Zionism MP Moshe Solomon joined the demonstration, telling the crowd: “With God’s help, we will make the right decisions for the sake of the State of Israel.” 

Even if Israel’s cabinet approves the ceasefire agreement, there is no guarantee that the truce will last beyond 42 days. 

According to a previous draft of the agreement, on the 16th day of the ceasefire, negotiations are planned to begin over the second phase. 

The broad outline of the second phase is for all Israeli captives to be released in return for a total withdrawal from Gaza. The exact details are yet to be confirmed. 

Israeli officials have long maintained that it will not withdraw from the enclave unless Hamas’s military and governance capabilities are completely removed. A plan for the governance of post-war Gaza will be discussed in the second and third phases.

It is highly likely that such negotiations in which Hamas may have to discuss its own withdrawal from governance in Gaza will be lengthy and complicated. 

The later stages of the ceasefire will also involve discussing the identities of more prominent Palestinian prisoners – a point that will also likely require intense negotiating. 

While Israeli forces will retreat to the perimeter in several areas during phase one, a retreat from the Philadelphi Corridor – a 14km-long buffer zone running along the entire Gaza boundary with Egypt – will only begin on the 42nd day of the ceasefire. 

That withdrawal would begin after the last Israeli captive from the first phase of the deal is released, and would conclude by day 50. 

During the summer, Netanyahu declared that under a truce agreement, there would be no Israeli withdrawal from the area.

The prime minister may face pressure from far-right Israelis to remain in the Egyptian border area beyond the first phase of the deal, which would break the ceasefire agreement.