Will Israel Adhere to the Ceasefire Agreement?

The ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel primarily provides a much-needed relief for Palestinians in Gaza, who have endured a horrific and brutal genocide. For 15 months, they have faced daily bombings, killings, threats, imprisonment, starvation, disease, and hardships beyond what most people can even imagine, let alone survive.

The agreement will not take effect until Sunday, January 19, 2025, just one day before Donald Trump’s inauguration as President of the United States.

While some attribute the agreement’s success to the Trump administration’s unique ability to pressure Israel, it is essential to acknowledge Trump’s political motivations. Undoubtedly, he sought Israel’s agreement to the ceasefire just before his inauguration to bolster his political capital.

In other words, Trump did not pressure Netanyahu to accept the agreement out of genuine concern for peace or commitment to all three phases of the deal. It is far more likely that his actions were driven by personal political calculations to enhance his reputation and advance his administration’s agenda.

We do not know the exact conversations or deals struck behind closed doors between Trump’s team and Israeli officials, but it is safe to assume that the Trump administration is not invested in establishing a fully sovereign Palestinian state within the 1967 borders, nor does it oppose Israel’s plans to annex large portions of the West Bank.

Some reports suggest that the Trump administration may have promised Netanyahu U.S. support for annexing parts of the West Bank in exchange for his acceptance of the ceasefire agreement. In such a scenario, Trump achieves a political win, and Netanyahu continues Israel’s colonial expansion.

The Limitations of the Ceasefire Agreement

The primary reason for skepticism about this agreement is that it does not guarantee the implementation of its second and third phases, which involve a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, the return of displaced Palestinians to all areas of the strip, and the comprehensive reconstruction of Gaza.

After more than 15 months of genocide, Gaza lies in ruins. Large parts of the strip are uninhabitable. People cannot simply return to neighborhoods that have been completely destroyed, or to buildings without running water, functional sewage systems, electricity, or fuel.

Schools, universities, clinics, and hospitals are unusable, and businesses no longer operate. The economic system has collapsed, leaving people entirely dependent on foreign aid for survival.

Diseases are rampant, and toxins from Israel’s bombardments have contaminated Gaza’s air, soil, and water. Entire families have been wiped out, and many others have been torn apart by Israel’s indiscriminate attacks, leaving countless children orphaned. Many people can no longer support their families. How can life return to “normal” for Palestinians after such devastation? The answer is unclear.

Questions about governance in Gaza remain unresolved, and the agreement offers no solutions to the underlying issues or a pathway to a long-term resolution. The question of a long-term solution is critical. At best, the agreement may end this particular genocidal campaign, but it says nothing about the root cause: Israel’s structural genocide against Palestinians.

Structural Genocide and the Ongoing Nakba

The structural genocide of Palestinians, often referred to as the ongoing Nakba, is not limited to specific events such as the 1948 Nakba or the current assault on Gaza. It is a settler-colonial framework designed to eliminate Palestinian sovereignty, deny the right of return, expel Palestinians from their land, and impose exclusive Jewish-Israeli control from the river to the sea. This structure operates through a range of exclusionary and dispossessive tactics.

Acts of mass genocide, like the recent assault on Gaza—involving mass killings, mass displacement, and mass destruction rendering the land uninhabitable—are just one tool among many. Others include:

• • Gradual displacement and eviction.

• • Economic strangulation, forcing dependency.

• • Erasure of Palestinian history and culture.

• • Fragmentation of Palestinian communities.

• • Denial of rights, freedoms, and dignity for those living under occupation, pressuring them to leave.

• • Obstructing Palestinian sovereignty politically.

Thus, the real question becomes: Can a ceasefire agreement, even if all three phases are implemented, end this structural genocide? The answer is clear: no. None of the other mechanisms of Israeli structural genocide are addressed in the ceasefire agreement.

The Need for International Accountability

This structural genocide must be consistently named, exposed, and challenged. As long as Israel’s settler-colonial project remains hidden or downplayed in diplomatic and public discourse, the root problem will persist unabated, and the cycle of unimaginable suffering will continue. Even if the agreement provides a temporary reprieve, the underlying genocidal structure remains intact, a ticking time bomb ready to explode into another full-scale war.

Without serious and sustained international pressure on Israel, including economic and political isolation by states and institutions worldwide, the world will remain trapped in a system of perpetual structural genocide—a time bomb destined to culminate in complete annihilation.