New York Times: Scenarios for the Gaza Agreement

The New York Times reported that the six-week truce between Israel and the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) leaves uncertainty about its outcome. Will it culminate in a permanent ceasefire and the release of remaining detainees in Gaza, or will fighting resume before its conclusion?

In a report from occupied Jerusalem by Aaron Boxerman, the newspaper explained that under the agreement, after 16 days of ceasefire, Israeli and Hamas officials are expected to begin negotiations on ending the war, releasing the remaining detainees, and withdrawing Israeli forces from Gaza.

However, Israeli leaders have insisted that the war will not end until Hamas is destroyed. This claim appeared unfulfilled when Hamas fighters were seen on Sunday in parts of Gaza, some waving guns from small trucks, in a display of authority to both Palestinians and Israelis.

Both Israel and Hamas have retained bargaining chips. Until the end of the truce, Hamas holds about two-thirds of the 98 remaining detainees, while Israel continues to occupy parts of Gaza and detains high-profile prisoners, including the iconic political figure Marwan Barghouti. The Israeli government faces a pivotal choice: returning the detainees to their families or pursuing the destruction of Hamas. The former option could threaten Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s grip on power.

Deep Divisions

Meanwhile, both sides agreed to delay reaching a decisive agreement on ending the war and determining Gaza’s future. Both hope the 42-day ceasefire will work in their favor. Retired Israeli Brigadier General Shlomo Brom noted that Hamas, in particular, “hopes that the new dynamics will prevent Israel from resuming combat.”

The decision to accept a temporary ceasefire, according to the newspaper, has already caused deep fractures within Israel’s far-right ruling coalition. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir resigned in protest against the cabinet’s decision, and his Jewish Power party withdrew from the coalition on Sunday. Additionally, the Religious Zionism Party, led by Bezalel Smotrich, has threatened to withdraw if Netanyahu fails to renew the fighting after the 42-day truce.

If Smotrich’s party pulls out, Netanyahu’s government will retain less than half the seats in the Knesset, potentially leading to its collapse and forcing new elections. Netanyahu has stressed that the ceasefire remains temporary and claimed that Israel reserves the right to return to war if “Phase Two negotiations are ineffective.” He also stated that newly elected U.S. President Donald Trump would support such a decision.

The fragility of the truce was evident on Sunday morning when Hamas delayed handing over a list of hostages to be released, causing a nearly three-hour delay in the ceasefire’s implementation. Analysts suggest the agreement will likely face many similar tests in the coming weeks as both sides flex their muscles.

Families of Detainees

Israeli families of detainees still held in Gaza have called on the Israeli government to fulfill all phases of the deal to bring their loved ones home. Noa Argamani, a freed hostage whose boyfriend remains in captivity, expressed heartbreak over his exclusion from the current round of releases. She said, “The progress made in recent days is a very important step, but the deal must be fully completed in all its stages.”

The coming weeks will determine whether the ceasefire evolves into a lasting peace or collapses under the weight of mistrust and unresolved grievances. For now, the temporary truce remains a precarious foundation for both sides to navigate their next moves in a highly volatile and fragile situation.