How did the Prophet Muhammad anticipate the fall of Baghdad and Damascus?

A questioner asked: “As-salāmu ʿalaykum wa raḥmatullāhi wa barakātuh. I recently heard that there is a hadith from the Prophet (peace and blessings be upon him) stating that the Day of Judgment will occur after the downfall of Baghdad and Damascus specifically, and that these cities were mentioned by name. Is this really one of the minor Signs of the Hour?”

We have not come across an authentic hadith explicitly stating that among the Signs of the Hour is the downfall of Baghdad or Damascus by name. Perhaps what you are referring to are other narrations that mention Iraq and ash-Shām (Greater Syria, which includes Damascus). Several hadiths in Sahih Muslim and other collections speak about events that will occur in these regions close to the end of times, but they do not specify that the final Hour (Day of Judgment) commences immediately after any “end” or “downfall” of these cities.

Below are some relevant narrations and scholarly commentaries often cited on this topic:

1. Hadith on Preventing Provisions from Iraq, Syria, and Egypt

Narration (Muslim and others) from Abū Hurayrah (may Allah be pleased with him):

The Messenger of Allah (peace and blessings be upon him) said:

“Iraq will withhold its dirham and qafīz; ash-Shām will withhold its mudd and dīnār; and Egypt will withhold its irdab and dīnār; and you will return to where you began, you will return to where you began, you will return to where you began. The flesh and blood of Abū Hurayrah bears witness to this.”

Likewise, Sahih Muslim, Aḥmad, and others record from Abū Naḍrah:

“We were with Jābir ibn ʿAbd Allāh (may Allah be pleased with him) who said, ‘It is about to happen that the people of Iraq will not receive a qafīz or a dirham.’ We asked, ‘From where will that be?’ He replied, ‘From the non-Arabs (i.e., Persians) who will prevent it.’ He continued, ‘It is also about to happen that the people of ash-Shām will not receive a dīnār or a mudd.’ We asked, ‘From where will that be?’ He replied, ‘From the Romans.’ Then he paused briefly and said, ‘The Messenger of Allah (peace and blessings be upon him) said: “In the last part of my Ummah, there will be a Khalīfah who will distribute wealth generously, without counting it.”’

Abū Naḍrah and Abū al-ʿAlāʾ were asked if they thought this man could be ʿUmar ibn ʿAbd al-ʿAzīz. They answered, ‘No.’”

2. Hadith on the Battle with the Romans Near al-Aʿmāq or Dābiq

Narration (Muslim and al-Ḥākim) from Abū Hurayrah (may Allah be pleased with him):

The Messenger of Allah (peace and blessings be upon him) said: “The Hour will not be established until the Romans camp at al-Aʿmāq or Dābiq. Then an army of the best people on earth at that time will go forth from Madīnah to face them. When they line up for battle, the Romans will say: ‘Let us fight those (Muslims) who captured some of our people.’ The Muslims will reply: ‘No, by Allah! We will not abandon our brothers.’ Then they will fight. One-third (of the Muslim army) will flee, and Allah will never forgive them. One-third will be martyred—these are the best martyrs in the sight of Allah. The remaining one-third will be victorious and will never be afflicted with tribulation again. They will conquer Constantinople. While they are dividing the war booty and have hung their swords on olive trees, Satan will cry out: ‘The Messiah (False Messiah) is behind you with your families!’ They will rush back, but this claim will be false. However, when they reach ash-Shām, the Dajjāl (False Messiah) will indeed emerge. While they prepare for battle and align their ranks, the iqāmah (call for prayer) will be made, and ʿĪsā ibn Maryam (Jesus son of Mary, peace be upon him) will descend and lead them. When the enemy of Allah (the Dajjāl) sees him, he will melt like salt in water. If ʿĪsā left him, he would dissolve completely until he perishes, but Allah will cause him to be killed by ʿĪsā’s hand, and he will show them the blood on his spear.”

Commentary of Imām an-Nawawī (رحمه الله)

Imām an-Nawawī, in his commentary on Sahih Muslim (18/20), explains the first hadith regarding Iraq, Syria, and Egypt withholding their wealth:

“There are two famous interpretations of the meaning of ‘Iraq withholding its dirham and qafīz’ and so forth:

 

1. 1. That they embraced Islam and thus the jizyah (tribute) was no longer due from them. This has already occurred.

1. 1. The more prevalent interpretation is that non-Arabs and the Romans (Byzantines) would gain control over these regions in the latter times, preventing Muslims from obtaining these resources. This is further supported by the narration in Muslim from Jābir: ‘It is about to happen that no qafīz or dirham will reach them, because the non-Arabs (Persians) will prevent it…’ and similarly regarding the Romans and ash-Shām. Indeed, we have witnessed this happen in our era with Iraq, and it continues in our present time.”

When discussing the hadith about the Romans descending upon al-Aʿmāq or Dābiq, Imām an-Nawawī clarifies:

“These (al-Aʿmāq, Dābiq) are locations in ash-Shām near Ḥalab (Aleppo). As for the army dividing into three groups—one group fleeing, one group achieving martyrdom, and one group claiming victory—this is a clear prophecy of events yet to happen. They will then conquer Constantinople (one of the greatest cities of the Romans).”

Conclusion

In summary, there is no authentic prophetic narration explicitly stating that the Hour itself will happen right after the “end” of Baghdad or Damascus. Rather, a number of Sahih hadiths describe significant tribulations and conflicts related to Iraq, ash-Shām (including Damascus), and Egypt before the final establishment of the Day of Judgment. These narrations align with what many scholars interpret as minor signs of the Hour and major conflicts preceding the appearance of the Dajjāl and the second coming of Prophet ʿĪsā (peace be upon him).

It is important to rely on authentic hadith collections and the recognized commentaries of our esteemed scholars. While certain events in these regions may fit into the broader framework of Islamic eschatology, specifics about the exact timing or sequence remain known only to Allah.

And Allah knows best.