California Moves Towards Secession: Will a Civil War Erupt in the United States?

A recent report by the Russian news outlet “News Re” has explored the possibility of California seceding from the United States, as efforts to collect signatures for this movement gain momentum.

According to the report, the local government has approved a petition that requires more than half a million signatures to advance the secession process.

Activists behind the movement express confidence in its success, emphasizing their opposition to the new U.S. leadership.

What is Known About California’s Secession Plan?

On January 27, Shirley Weber, the Secretary of State of California, announced the approval of the petition for California’s secession from the United States. Now, the fate of this initiative rests in the hands of California’s residents, who will vote on whether to remain in the U.S. or break away.

To move forward, the petition needs at least 546,651 signatures. The signature collection process will continue until July 22, 2025. If successful, a referendum on California’s future will be held in 2028.

The movement has been dubbed “Calexit,” a reference to “Brexit.” The secession process will proceed if at least 55% of voters support it, with a minimum 50% voter turnout.

The “New York Post” has described this initiative as a “vote of no confidence” in the United States, reflecting Californians’ desire to establish an independent state. One supporter of the movement stated, “Our state pays $83 billion more in taxes than the federal aid we receive. We support other states—why shouldn’t we separate?”

Why Does California Want to Secede?

California is the most populous state on the U.S. West Coast and boasts one of the world’s largest economies.

According to the “World Economic Outlook” report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), California ranked as the world’s fifth-largest economy by the end of 2023, surpassing both the United Kingdom and India.

The majority of California’s population supports the Democratic Party. In the November 2024 U.S. presidential elections, the state overwhelmingly backed Democratic candidate and former Vice President Kamala Harris. The Calexit movement initially gained traction in 2016 following Donald Trump’s election victory.

However, polls indicate that only 14% of registered voters currently support secession. Nonetheless, Marcus Ruiz Evans, leader of the Calexit movement, believes the movement’s chances of success have increased.

Political analyst Alexander Ionov, head of the Russian Anti-Globalization Movement, described the situation in California as politically driven.

According to Ionov, “The Democrats are seeking retaliation against the so-called new Republicans led by Trump, following the complete failure of Biden’s domestic policies.”

Why Do Californians Oppose Trump?

Many activists and politicians in California openly express hostility toward Donald Trump, the 47th president of the United States.

California Governor Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, has vowed to protect fundamental civil rights from Republican policies.

The “CalMatters” organization reported that during Trump’s first presidential term, California officials filed lawsuits against his administration at a rate of one every 12 days.

In total, the state filed 123 lawsuits against Trump, challenging Republican policies on abortion restrictions, immigration crackdowns, environmental deregulation, and expanded oil production. Additionally, Trump’s executive order withdrawing the U.S. from the Paris Climate Agreement was met with fierce resistance from California.

According to reports, California’s government is already preparing new lawsuits against Trump.

Ionov believes that Trump, who previously proposed expanding U.S. territory to include Greenland and Canada, will fiercely oppose any secessionist efforts.

“Even under Democratic leadership, U.S. intelligence agencies have closely monitored Californians and other independence advocates. They are interrogated after every major event, and the FBI frequently conducts searches at their offices,” Ionov added.

Will California Secede from the United States?

The American legal system does not explicitly define the process for a state’s secession. After the U.S. Civil War in 1869, the Supreme Court ruled that statehood is permanent and can only be reversed through “revolution or with the consent of the states.”

Political science professor Gevorg Mirzayan from the Russian Financial University argues that Calexit is not in the interest of the U.S. political establishment.

“Republicans in power will not want to lose the wealthiest state, and the same applies to Democrats—California and New York are their largest electoral strongholds. Without California, it would be much harder for Democrats to win the White House,” Mirzayan noted, adding that “the electoral balance would tilt significantly in favor of Republicans.”

Another major obstacle is a separatist movement in Northern California advocating for the creation of a new state, Jefferson, which would merge parts of California with Oregon.

Meanwhile, Russian authorities are closely monitoring events in the U.S. Grigory Karasin, head of the Russian Federation Council’s International Relations Committee, has dismissed America’s territorial expansion ambitions as “nonsense.”

Will a Civil War Erupt Over California’s Secession?

In the spring of 2024, Rasmussen Reports conducted a poll to gauge American opinions on the likelihood of a new civil war.

The survey followed the release of the film “Civil War,” which portrays California and Texas rebelling against a dictatorial president who has divided the nation.

The poll revealed that 41% of respondents believe a new civil conflict will erupt within five years, while 16% consider this scenario highly probable.

According to political analyst Malik Dudakov, several U.S. states have historically used secession threats to pressure the federal government.

“For the U.S. to collapse, it would require either a civil war or a nuclear conflict. A peaceful secession is highly unlikely in the near or medium term,” Dudakov explained.

Conversely, Ionov believes a civil war remains a possibility, noting that “the U.S. is home to many influential religious sects. This factor could be exploited to mobilize people into mass protests. States like Texas, California, and Hawaii, as well as Puerto Rico, exhibit serious instability.”

Ionov describes California as a “ticking time bomb,” arguing that while secession may not happen immediately, it remains a strong possibility for the future. He emphasizes that Trump’s presidency has left the U.S. deeply divided, with political pessimism prevailing across the country.