What Are Egypt’s Options in Facing Trump’s Demand to Displace Gaza’s Residents?

Just five days after returning to the White House for another term, U.S. President Donald Trump announced his plan to relocate 1.5 million Palestinians to Egypt and Jordan, intensifying pressure on Cairo and Amman with repeated statements.

Both Egypt and Jordan have outright rejected Trump’s proposal, which has been embraced by the Israeli occupation and dismissed by Palestinians.

Following their firm stance, Trump shifted his rhetoric on Friday, changing from a request directed at Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and Jordanian King Abdullah II to a command, signaling his insistence on implementing the plan, according to analysts.

Trump continues to insist that the rulers of Egypt and Jordan will eventually accept Palestinians from Gaza, reminding them of how much Washington has done for their countries.

A New Nakba?

Trump has yet to disclose the details of his plan, its implementation, or what Egypt and Jordan would receive in return. However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu floated the idea of forced displacement shortly after the Al-Aqsa Flood operation on October 7, 2023.

By the end of that month, the Financial Times reported that Netanyahu was lobbying European leaders to pressure Egypt into accepting refugees from Gaza.

Michael Young, a researcher at the Carnegie Institute, compared this plan to the 1948 Nakba, the mass displacement of Palestinians from their homeland.

An Israeli intelligence ministry document later revealed a strategy to evacuate Gaza’s residents to Sinai, establish a buffer zone several kilometers deep into Egyptian territory, and prevent Palestinians from resettling near Israeli borders.

Egypt’s response to the idea of resettling Palestinians in Sinai was outright rejection, warning that such a move could destabilize the country. Sisi previously urged Israel to relocate Gazans to the Negev Desert until the war concludes.

What Will an Angry Trump Do?

In response to Trump’s statements, Egyptian authorities organized state-backed demonstrations in various provinces on Thursday and near the Rafah crossing on Friday, to express the Egyptian people’s rejection of the plan—although opposition groups were denied participation.

Some Western analysts suggest that Trump could retaliate by cutting Egypt’s annual U.S. aid, which totals $3 billion, including $1.3 billion for the Egyptian military.

The Financial Times reported on January 28 that Trump’s statements came just days after U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio ordered the suspension of most U.S. foreign aid programs, hinting at Washington’s leverage over Egypt and Jordan.

Egyptian political analysts speculate that Trump may escalate pressure on Egypt by threatening its fragile economy, forcing Cairo into a difficult position.

The Only Option: Genuine Popular Support

Former Egyptian MP Tharwat Nafi stated that Trump is a strong-willed leader who does not accept rejection, arguing that the only way any government, including Sisi’s, can stand up to Trump is through genuine popular support.

Nafi explained that only authentic grassroots mobilization, rather than staged demonstrations, can influence U.S. institutions and policymakers.

He warned that attempts to fabricate public support, like the Friday gatherings at Rafah, are bound to fail, as the Egyptian people, including both opposition figures inside and outside the country, reject forced displacement.

He urged the Egyptian government to embrace the real public sentiment instead of fabricating false narratives, emphasizing that Washington pays close attention to genuine public movements.

Political Bargaining and the Quiet Scenario

Political scientist Dr. Essam Abdelshafi argues that Sisi is more focused on appeasing Trump than resisting displacement plans, suggesting that his maneuvers serve his personal and regime’s interests rather than national security.

According to Abdelshafi, the Egyptian regime has already considered Palestinian resettlement, making its rejection questionable.

He believes that Gaza’s population transfer will not happen abruptly but rather through gradual, quiet movements under pretexts such as medical treatment, education, or humanitarian aid. He claims that housing projects built since 2017 could serve as resettlement zones for displaced Palestinians.

He suggests that Sisi’s primary strategy is negotiation, leveraging displacement in exchange for financial incentives from the U.S. and the European Union.

Abdelshafi dismissed Europe’s so-called opposition to displacement as meaningless, pointing out that Western governments have actively supported Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza.

He argues that Sisi will not resist displacement, as he has previously compromised Egypt’s national interests on issues like Ethiopia’s Renaissance Dam, Tiran and Sanafir islands, and Mediterranean gas fields.

Could Trump Oust Sisi?

Abdelshafi believes Trump will not remove Sisi, considering him a functional tool for U.S. interests. Instead, he will pressure Sisi for greater concessions.

He asserts that Gulf allies, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, support displacement plans and Gaza’s destruction to ensure their economic projects, such as Saudi Arabia’s NEOM and The Line, proceed without Palestinian resistance.

The proposed India-Middle East-Europe Corridor, which passes through the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Israel, also requires either the elimination of Gaza or its pacification.

The People: The Only Viable but Difficult Option

Former Egyptian diplomat Dr. Abdullah Al-Ashaal argued that Trump knows Arab rulers disregard their peoples’ will and will ultimately comply with his demands.

He pointed out that Trump’s tone has shifted from a request to a command, citing a statement by Trump’s advisor Adam Boehler, affirming Trump’s determination to enforce displacement.

According to Al-Ashaal, Palestinians’ refusal to leave their land is the only certain obstacle to Trump and Israel’s plan.

With increasing U.S. and Israeli pressure and media campaigns calling for cutting aid to Egypt, Al-Ashaal suggests that Sisi’s only viable yet difficult choice is to grant the Egyptian people their freedom.

However, he questioned whether Sisi would take such a step.

Regarding the possibility of Sisi stepping down to oppose displacement, Al-Ashaal remarked that if U.S. aid to the Egyptian military is cut, a coup against Sisi is inevitable.

He revealed that American officials have already lined up potential replacements for Sisi, recalling a 2012 conversation with U.S. Ambassador Anne Patterson, who stated that Washington controls who leads Egypt.

Al-Ashaal concluded that displacement will not happen, not because of Arab governments, but because Palestinians refuse to leave their land. He emphasized that the Palestinian people remain steadfast and will ultimately liberate the region from its rulers and their Western backers.