Will Trump’s Plans Derail Saudi-Israeli Normalization?

A report published by “Deutsche Welle” examines the potential impact of former U.S. President Donald Trump’s plans on normalizing relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel if he secures a second term in 2025. The report highlights that Trump had aimed to facilitate Saudi-Israeli normalization as part of his broader Middle East policy.

According to the report, translated by “Arabi 21,” divisive proposals concerning the future of Palestinians in Gaza have emerged following Trump’s recent meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Washington. Trump stated on Monday that Palestinians would not be allowed to return to Gaza if his plans to purchase and rebuild the war-ravaged territory were implemented.

Speaking to Fox News, Trump said, “They will get much better housing… in communities slightly away from their current location, where all this danger exists.”

The report further explains that Trump envisions neighboring countries like Egypt and Jordan as the primary hosts for approximately two million Palestinians from Gaza. However, legal experts argue that expelling Palestinians from Gaza would violate international law, with the United Nations warning against what it calls “ethnic cleansing.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also proposed an equally controversial idea, suggesting in an interview with Israel’s Channel 14 that “Saudis can establish a Palestinian state in Saudi Arabia, as they have plenty of land there.”

Strong Arab Rejection

Saudi Arabia, along with Egypt and Jordan, has categorically rejected such proposals. The Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs posted on X (formerly Twitter) stating, “The Kingdom affirms that the Palestinian people have a right to their land; they are not intruders who can be expelled at will by the Israeli occupation.”

The statement further emphasized, “The Palestinian people’s right remains firm and inalienable, regardless of how long it takes.”

The report sees this strong stance as a significant shift from the warm diplomatic ties between the U.S. and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman during Trump’s first term (2017-2021). Sebastian Sons, a senior researcher at the Center for Applied Research in Partnership with the Orient in Bonn, noted, “In 2017, Trump was highly regarded by Mohammed bin Salman, who was still consolidating his power. Over the following years, political and economic ties between the two countries strengthened.”

While Trump brokered the Abraham Accords, facilitating diplomatic relations between Israel and Sudan, Bahrain, Morocco, and the UAE, he failed to secure a similar deal with Saudi Arabia before being succeeded by President Joe Biden.

Negotiations between the U.S., Israel, and Saudi Arabia persisted until Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, 2023, triggering the war in Gaza. Within 15 months, as Trump eyes a return to power, geopolitical dynamics have significantly shifted.

Saudi Influence and Changing Priorities

According to Sebastian Sons, “Mohammed bin Salman is not only firmly established in his position but is also displaying newfound confidence, as evident from his response to Trump and Netanyahu’s comments on Palestinians from Gaza.”

From Sons’ perspective, “Normalizing relations with Israel remains a high priority for both the U.S. and Israel. However, for Saudi Arabia, it is currently impossible to prioritize this issue. Doing so would undermine its credibility. Furthermore, Mohammed bin Salman does not see Netanyahu and Trump as reliable partners in achieving a two-state solution.”

Anna Jacobs, a Gulf affairs researcher and non-resident fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, added, “Trump’s plan for Gaza will make Saudi-Israeli normalization even more difficult.” She further emphasized, “Saudi Arabia has made it clear that the forced displacement of Palestinians from their land is non-negotiable.”

Aziz Alghashian, a senior fellow at the Dubai-based ORF Middle East Research Foundation, noted that Saudi Arabia has shifted from pragmatism to competition in its political stance. “Saudi Arabia is now willing to confront and disagree with the U.S., rather than adopting the pragmatic approach it once had,” he stated.

This shift aligns with widespread public support within Saudi Arabia and the broader Arab world. “Mohammed bin Salman’s new stance enjoys immense popularity among Saudis,” Alghashian added.

Future Prospects

Despite the tensions, Sons does not rule out the possibility of Mohammed bin Salman and Trump eventually negotiating a compromise, as both leaders need to prioritize their respective national interests. “Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 economic reform project must be secured, and American investments play a crucial role in achieving this,” Sons explained. “Saudi Arabia remains a key partner for the U.S. in the Middle East.”

Sons also predicts that Saudi Arabia may seek de-escalation in the near future, aligning with Trump’s political calculations. “I can imagine Trump making extreme demands to extract at least some concessions from Saudi Arabia,” he noted.

The report concludes by stating that the fate of Palestinians in Gaza remains uncertain, especially following Hamas’ recent decision to end the ceasefire. For now, the worst-case scenario for the people of Gaza is a return to war.