Is Israel Preparing for an Aerial Strike Against Iran?

We stand today on the brink of a regional war, but this is not the first time. Iran and Israel have repeatedly dodged direct confrontation, narrowly escaping full-scale war. However, Syria has reshaped the battlefield, fundamentally altering the regional power dynamics. In a dramatic shift, mere hours after Assad’s exit, Israeli ground forces advanced into the Syrian side of the Golan Heights, expanding the demilitarised zone and seizing strategic highlands.

Currently, Israeli tanks are stationed just 30 kilometres from Damascus—perhaps even closer. At the same time, Israeli fighter jets have launched extensive airstrikes on Syria, destroying chemical weapons facilities and other advanced military sites, claiming they could fall into the hands of “extremists.”

Massive Israeli Airstrikes Across Syria

• • Explosions were reported at Mezzeh Airbase near Damascus.

• • A massive airstrike near Tartus registered a 3.0 magnitude earthquake, leaving behind devastating destruction.

• • Helicopters, fighter jets, and missile depots were obliterated.

• • Other occupied targets included Aleppo, Qamishli, Latakia, Quneitra, Hama, and Homs.

• • Over 480 targets were struck in total, marking the largest Israeli aerial operation in history.

• • At least 80% of Syria’s military capabilities have been wiped out, with the remaining forces expected to collapse in the coming weeks.

According to an analysis by Asbab Geopolitical Studies, this transforming role of Syria in the regional landscape will have a major impact on the balance of power and could escalate conflict in both the near and distant future.

The Bigger Picture: A Prelude to War

The widespread destruction of Syrian air defenses, helicopters, and warplanes is not just a military campaign—it is the opening move in a larger chess game. The occupation is systematically turning Syria into a defenseless zone, clearing the path for a massive preemptive strike on Iran.

By neutralising Syria’s air defenses, the Israeli regime has extended its aerial frontline by 600 to 700 kilometres, pushing it closer to Syria’s eastern borders. This means that Israeli aerial refueling aircraft can now travel much deeper into the region, enabling its fighter jets to reach Iran and return without running out of fuel—an option that was previously impossible.

Contextualising the Situation

• • Syria once possessed one of the densest air defense networks in the world, including Russian-made SA-17, SA-22, SA-6, SA-8, and SA-5 batteries.

• • While Israeli F-35 stealth fighters could navigate past these systems, aerial refueling tankers could not.

• • Aerial refueling tankers are large, slow-moving, and lack stealth capabilities.

• • Even older Syrian anti-aircraft guns posed a significant threat to these tankers.

• • Syria’s defenses also challenged Israeli F-16 fighter jets, with Syria successfully shooting down an Israeli F-16 in 2018.

• • Previously, Syria’s airspace was a no-fly zone for Israeli refueling aircraft, severely limiting Israel’s military options.

Even today, Israeli F-35 fighters have an operational range of approximately 2,100 kilometers. A round-trip from Israel’s Ramat David Airbase to Tehran exceeds 3,000 kilometers—well beyond the aircraft’s capabilities without refueling.

This does not include the extra fuel needed for aerial combat maneuvers or weapons payloads. External fuel tanks are not an option as they would compromise the aircraft’s stealth, making it an easy target for Iran’s highly advanced air defense systems.

Simply put, a preemptive strike on Iran, ensuring all aircraft return safely, requires a covert operation—one that eliminates the need for external fuel tanks or heavy missile payloads. However, even with external fuel tanks, the maximum operational range of an Israeli F-35 remains around 2,700 kilometers—still far below what is needed.

In the past, Israel could not achieve aerial superiority over Iran without direct U.S. military intervention. However, this has changed with Syria’s air defenses neutralised. Israeli forces claim to have destroyed 80% of Syria’s SA-22 short- and medium-range systems and 90% of its SA-7 medium-range systems.

While these Syrian systems did not pose a direct threat to Israeli F-35s, they were a major obstacle for Israeli aerial refueling aircraft. Now that only a handful of Syrian air defense batteries remain operational, the occupation has effectively created an aerial corridor for its entire air force—including refueling aircraft. This means the Israeli Air Force can now operate with greater freedom, positioning refueling tankers closer to Iran.

Path to a Strike on Iran

With this new capability, Israeli fighter jets can now:

1. 1. Take off from Ramat David Airbase.

1. 1. Fly across Syria’s aerial corridor.

1. 1. Pass through Iraq.

1. 1. Strike military and nuclear installations inside Iran.

1. 1. Return to Syrian airspace for refueling before heading back to occupied Palestine.

If Israeli leaders feel confident enough, they may expand their attack to target Iran’s Supreme Leader and key Revolutionary Guard commanders. In short, by eliminating Syria’s air defenses, Israel has created the opportunity for a large-scale preemptive strike on Iran’s military and nuclear infrastructure.

This is a game-changing opportunity, and Netanyahu is likely presenting these new military options to Trump’s incoming administration. If Trump refuses to join, Israel may act alone before his inauguration, hoping to drag the U.S. into war afterward.

Iran’s Next Move: Strengthening Hezbollah

With limited options, Iran will now accelerate its support for Hezbollah to restore deterrence. For years, Israel and Iran have maintained a delicate balance, with Iran leveraging its regional allies, particularly Hezbollah, to pressure Israel.

In 2018, estimates placed Hezbollah’s arsenal at 130,000 rockets and missiles. However, in June 2024, a senior commander from Iran’s Quds Force claimed Hezbollah now possesses over 1 million projectiles.

Regardless of whether this number is exaggerated, even the lowest estimates indicate an overwhelming firepower. However, Israel’s recent strikes on Hezbollah leadership have significantly weakened the group’s command structure.

The Challenge for Iran

Without a strong Hezbollah deterrent, Iran faces a strategic disadvantage. Tehran is expected to prioritise efforts to re-arm Hezbollah as quickly as possible, but a major obstacle stands in its way.

During the chaos of the Syrian conflict, Israel seized an opportunity to create a buffer zone near the Golan Heights, southwest of Damascus. As Syrian opposition forces advanced toward the capital, Israeli occupation forces quickly moved in, taking control of abandoned Syrian military positions—without a fight.

Netanyahu initially described the operation as temporary, but the seized territory now spans twice the size of Gaza and holds major strategic importance. More significantly, Israel has silently taken control of the Syrian side of Mount Hermon (Jabal Al-Sheikh), standing at 2,814 meters high.

Why This Matters

For decades, Mount Hermon created a blind spot in Israeli radar systems, making it difficult to monitor Syrian and Lebanese territory. Iran and Hezbollah exploited this geographic advantage to:

• • Sneak drones and low-altitude aircraft into occupied Palestine.

• • Transport weapons undetected from Iran to Hezbollah via Syria.

However, this situation has now changed. Israeli occupation forces plan to install radar stations atop Mount Hermon, granting full surveillance capabilities over Syrian and Lebanese airspace. This move will significantly disrupt Iranian resupply efforts to Hezbollah.

The Countdown to War

With Hezbollah’s capabilities severely degraded, Israel’s control over Mount Hermon, and the newly established aerial corridor through Syria, war looms closer than ever. Reports suggest that Trump’s team is already reviewing Israeli proposals for preemptive strikes against Iran.

But make no mistake—Netanyahu set the stage for this war. He has placed the option on Trump’s desk, wrapped in a ribbon, and it may not be long before 100,000 tons of “diplomacy” are headed toward Iran.