Israeli Warnings of a Possible Confrontation Between the Occupation and Turkey… What’s Syria’s Role?

The Hebrew newspaper Israel Hayom has warned of a potential direct military confrontation between the Israeli occupation and Turkey, citing recent geopolitical shifts in the region—particularly with the emergence of a new regime in Syria that enjoys Ankara’s support.

The newspaper stressed that these developments, especially in Syria, serve as a crucial reminder: “Turkey is bigger than just Turkey.” This statement was echoed by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan during a speech at the Turkish Academy of Sciences in December 2024.

According to the newspaper, the Nigel Committee’s recommendations—submitted to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last month—highlight the increasing threat that Israel might face from Syria, warning that it could be no less dangerous than previous threats.

The report further warned that the situation could escalate if the Syrian military force effectively becomes an extension of Turkey, fulfilling what it describes as Ankara’s aspirations to revive Ottoman glory. It cautioned that Turkish envoys or military presence in Syria could deepen the likelihood of a direct Israeli-Turkish confrontation.

The newspaper noted that Tel Aviv has thus far maintained a discreet approach toward Turkey, avoiding public provocations, whereas Ankara has adopted a different stance.

It also highlighted a recent meeting in Ankara between Syria’s new president, Ahmad Al-Sharaa, and his Turkish counterpart. The discussions reportedly included a mutual defense agreement, involving the establishment of Turkish air bases in Syria and military training support for the Syrian army.

Additionally, the newspaper pointed to the escalating Turkish rhetoric against the Israeli occupation in recent months. It cited Erdoğan’s statements from July, in which he warned that “Turkey could overrun Israel, just as it did in Nagorno-Karabakh and Libya.” In his remarks, he also likened Netanyahu to Hitler.

Furthermore, Israel Hayom suggested that some Israeli experts believe that the October 7 war, coupled with the perceived weakening of the Iran-led Shiite axis, could push Israel into a direct confrontation with Turkey.

He further emphasized that Turkey already has unlimited access to northern Syria, warning that Israel must do everything in its power to prevent Turkey from becoming an active enemy, because “Turkey is not Iran—it is far stronger, with a more advanced military and a highly strategic geographical position.”

Similarly, the newspaper cited Noa Lazimi, an Israeli researcher at the Misgav Institute, who acknowledged that despite tensions, Israel and Turkey have managed to maintain relatively stable relations in the past.

She noted that even after the Mavi Marmara flotilla incident in 2010, the two sides eventually restored ties. However, she stressed that the current war has driven Erdoğan to harden his stance toward Israel, suggesting that he may now be more determined than ever to advance his imperialist ideology, which also aligns with domestic public opinion in Turkey.

The article concluded by stating that the developments in Syria might have whetted Erdoğan’s appetite for what he describes as the “new Ottoman dream.” The central question remains: How far is the Turkish president willing to go in his regional ambitions?