Bin Salman May Propose a Deal That Marginalises Palestinians Instead of Trump’s Plan

British researcher Madawi Al-Rasheed has highlighted Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s hopes of finding an alternative to former U.S. President Donald Trump’s plan to forcibly displace Palestinians from Gaza. However, she warns that the prince may propose a deal that risks marginalising Palestinians instead.

Al-Rasheed, a fellow at the British Academy and a visiting professor at the Middle East Centre at the London School of Economics, argues that Bin Salman sees Hamas as a regional threat and may push for a deal that further sidelines Palestinians.

In an article published by The Guardian, she noted that Saudi Arabia has recently experienced a diplomatic awakening after previously showing lukewarm engagement in the Gaza conflict. She pointed out that Egyptian, Jordanian, Qatari, and Emirati leaders are set to meet in Riyadh to discuss Trump’s proposal for an American-backed takeover of Gaza. Saudi Arabia, keen on being seen as a global dealmaker, will also host talks on Ukraine this week.

Bin Salman’s Distaste for Trump’s Plan and His Alternative

Al-Rasheed stated that Bin Salman was alarmed by Trump’s extravagant “Riviera Plan”, which envisioned rebuilding Gaza after its population was displaced to neighboring countries. Alongside other Arab leaders, he is expected to propose an alternative plan that includes the creation of a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital. The crown prince has insisted that there will be no normalisation with Israel without a Palestinian state.

In the short term, Bin Salman may successfully block the forced displacement of Palestinians to Egypt, Jordan, or even Saudi Arabia. The upcoming summit promises to secure enough funding for Gaza’s reconstruction, while keeping Palestinians on their land, albeit in temporary shelters.

Replacing Hamas: The Most Controversial Challenge

The most urgent and challenging agenda item at the summit will be finding an alternative power to replace Hamas in governing Gaza. The article highlights that Bin Salman is a fierce adversary of many Islamic movements, but his disdain for Hamas runs deeper. He blames the group for disrupting his plans to complete normalisation with Israel following the events of October 7, 2023.

Al-Rasheed argues that Bin Salman’s push for normalisation with Israel is driven by domestic interests. Saudi Arabia aims to benefit from Israeli technology transfers, military equipment, intelligence cooperation, and stronger trade relations. More crucially, Bin Salman hopes such ties will lead to closer security cooperation with the United States.

However, in the long term, the researcher believes Bin Salman’s plan is unlikely to succeed for two key reasons:

1. 1. Israel remains the biggest obstacle, as Netanyahu has made it clear that he will never accept a Palestinian state with full sovereignty.

1. 1. Any plan that completely excludes Hamas from the political scene is doomed to fail. While Hamas may agree to step back from governing Gaza in exchange for reconstruction, the group will not simply disappear. Unlike 1982, when the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) was expelled from Lebanon to Tunisia after Israel’s invasion of southern Lebanon, Hamas is fighting on its own land.

Al-Rasheed reminds readers that the Sabra and Shatila massacre, committed by Lebanese Christian militias against Palestinian refugees after the PLO’s forced departure, is still deeply embedded in Palestinian memory. Hamas will never accept any deal that signals the end of Palestine, which generations of exiled Palestinians and the people of Gaza have endured massacres for more than 15 months to defend.

A Saudi Plan Driven by Self-Interest

The article argues that Saudi Arabia’s alternative plan is primarily driven by self-preservation, aiming to prevent the destabilisation of Arab regimes, including its own.

Al-Rasheed explains that the forced expulsion of Palestinians would inevitably lead to Hamas fighters and the spread of political Islam, particularly the ideology of the Muslim Brotherhood, in countries that have actively suppressed such movements. No Arab regime wants Hamas fighters and their communities settling within their borders.

She elaborates that the Muslim Brotherhood’s ideology promotes Islamic governance while simultaneously advocating democracy. As a global movement, it appeals to many young Muslims, including Saudis, who aspire to an Islamic democracy based on their interpretation of Islam and governance. This poses a direct threat to Saudi Arabia’s monarchy.

The article points out that Bin Salman’s focus has been on economic and social liberalisation, which includes cracking down on the Muslim Brotherhood’s version of Islamism. Any attempt to forcibly remove Hamas would inevitably revive political Islam in the region.

Moreover, if Palestinians are forced into mass exile, Bin Salman fears a backlash from the Saudi public, who may see him as the Arab king who “sold Palestine”.

Saudi Public Sentiment and the Regime’s Stance on Palestine

Al-Rasheed emphasises that Saudi citizens have stronger solidarity with Palestinians than their own regime does. Historically, the Saudi monarchy has positioned itself as the leader of Arabs and Muslims—when it served its interests. However, Bin Salman has since adopted slogans like “Saudi Arabia for Saudis” and “Make Saudi Arabia Great”, echoing Trumpian rhetoric, in an attempt to detach Saudis from regional and global Islamic causes.

Despite these efforts, Saudis still recognise their religious and moral duty to stand with Palestinians. The article asserts that Bin Salman has attempted to suppress pro-Palestinian solidarity by imprisoning those who openly support or call for demonstrations in favour of Palestine.

The Uncertain Future of Gaza

Al-Rasheed concludes that the future governance of Gaza remains unclear. Despite the destruction, neither Bin Salman nor other Arab nations can successfully dictate Gaza’s fate without engaging with the Palestinians themselves.

She notes that many Arab countries have already signed normalisation agreements with Israel, yet none have brought peace. On the contrary, violence has escalated—for a simple reason: Palestinians themselves have been systematically marginalised.

The article asserts that lasting peace can only be achieved through a direct agreement between Palestinians and Israel that guarantees the establishment of a sovereign Palestinian state. If Saudi Arabia’s so-called diplomatic awakening does not include all Palestinian factions, including Hamas, at the negotiation table, then it will fail to create the conditions necessary for genuine peace.