What Is Trump Really Seeking in the Middle East?

Former U.S. President Donald Trump insists that the United States—or even he personally—should “control” Gaza, expel its more than two million Palestinian residents, and transform it into a Mediterranean Riviera for the world’s elite.

In an article published by The Atlantic, Hussein Ibish, a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, pointed out that Trump recently posted an AI-generated video showing him and Elon Musk at an extravagant party in what he called “Trump Gaza”, a luxurious paradise dominated by a golden statue of Trump.

While politically and practically unfeasible, the very act of proposing this sets the stage for two other objectives that Trump could potentially achieve, reshaping the Middle East and creating chaos for Palestinians—particularly in the West Bank.

A Nuclear Deal with Iran?

The first major goal, according to the article, is a renewed nuclear deal with Iran. Trump has previously expressed his willingness to strike an agreement. However, after announcing new sanctions against Iran earlier this month, Trump held a press conference where he addressed Tehran directly, stating:

“I’d love to make a great deal. A deal where you can continue your life and thrive beautifully.”

But the article notes that the Israeli right-wing—and its conservative allies in the U.S.—would fiercely oppose such a deal, demanding some form of compensation.

Expanding Israeli Control Over the West Bank

This leads to Trump’s second objective. During the same press conference, Trump hinted at appeasing Israeli concerns by expanding its formal control over the West Bank.

When asked whether he supported Israeli sovereignty over the territory, Trump responded that his administration would likely make a formal announcement on the matter within four weeks. Palestinians, the article states, are holding their breath.

Compared to forcibly emptying Gaza, annexing additional parts of the West Bank might seem less extreme—and that may be precisely the point. By continuously floating the idea of depopulating Gaza, Trump is shifting the Overton Window—a term describing the range of ideas deemed acceptable in public discourse—to make Palestinian demands seem illegitimate.

This tactic aligns with Trump’s well-known strategy:

• • Repeat a shocking idea endlessly until it stops being shocking.

• • A Gaza expulsion plan may sound outrageous now, but over time, it could normalize the idea of Israeli annexation of Palestinian land.

Trump’s provocations about Gaza serve a broader purpose: laying the groundwork for a deal with Iran while strengthening Israel’s occupation of the West Bank.

Could Trump Strike a Deal with Iran?

The article suggests that there are several reasons to believe Trump could negotiate a new deal—potentially on terms more favorable to the U.S. than before.

1. 1. Iran’s Position Is Weaker Than Ever

       

      • • Israel has significantly damaged Iran’s regional proxies, including:

           

          • • Hezbollah in Lebanon
          • • Iraqi and Syrian militias
          • • Houthis in Yemen
          • • Hamas in Gaza

      • • The fall of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad in December further weakened Iran’s regional influence.
      • • As a result, Iran is struggling to project power or defend itself against Israeli and other military threats.

1. 1. A Deal Would Offer Iran Sanctions Relief

       

      • • A new agreement could provide sanctions relief, allowing Iran to rebuild its economy and reassess its national security strategy.
      • • Iran’s remaining leverage lies in its nuclear advancements since Trump withdrew from Obama’s 2015 deal in 2018.
      • • With Washington prepared to destroy Iranian nuclear facilities if necessary, a new deal may be one of Tehran’s few remaining options.

Although Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, publicly rejected negotiations following Trump’s new sanctions, Iran has quietly signaled openness to talks for at least 18 months.

For Trump, a deal with Iran would:

• • Prevent Iran from rushing to develop nuclear weapons.

• • Avoid entangling the U.S. in a military confrontation.

• • Boost Trump’s image as a “deal-maker” on the global stage.

Trump may even portray himself as outmaneuvering Obama, claiming his “genius” secured a better deal than the one Obama achieved—potentially even positioning himself for a Nobel Peace Prize nomination.

What Would a Trump-Iran Deal Look Like?

The article outlines what a potential deal could include:

• • Halt uranium enrichment and surrender existing stockpiles to be stored abroad.

• • Submit nuclear facilities to IAEA monitoring (or at least greater oversight).

• • Possibly destroy some centrifuges.

Trump could also demand:

• • Restrictions on Iran’s financial and military support to regional proxies.

• • Stronger verification mechanisms for compliance.

Iran’s Missile Program: A Sticking Point?

A potential obstacle to any agreement would be Iran’s missile arsenal, which Tehran is unlikely to dismantle. However, Israel’s recent airstrikes have already degraded Iran’s missile stockpiles and air defenses.

Given this deterioration, Trump could push forward with an agreement despite Iranian missile capabilities.

The Israeli Right’s Response: Land Grab in the West Bank

The major challenge for Trump would be Israeli opposition to an Iran deal.

To appease Israel, Trump may dust off the “Peace to Prosperity” plan championed by Jared Kushner during Trump’s first term. While widely dismissed as impractical or even ridiculous, the plan includes Israeli annexation of 30% or more of the West Bank, including the Jordan Valley.

If enacted:

• • Palestinians would be left with an even more fragmented and isolated territory.

• • Israel would expand its official sovereignty over occupied land.

• • The U.S. would fully endorse this expansion.

The Israeli far-right considers the entire West Bank their exclusive biblical inheritance. They may not be satisfied with only 30%, but the expansion of Israel’s control could be enough to placate them post-Iran deal.

Palestinian Resistance and the Reality of Annexation

Palestinians will inevitably resist.

• • They seek statehood, not isolated enclaves under expanded Israeli rule.

• • Israel’s far-right government may soon push for total control “from the river to the sea.”

However, the U.S. and Israel have the military power to force their vision upon Palestinians.

Israel has effectively controlled the West Bank since 1967—annexation would simply formalize this reality.

Conclusion: Trump’s Strategy in Motion

The “Peace to Prosperity” plan was widely mocked in 2020.

Now, compared to Trump’s extreme Gaza proposals, it might appear more reasonable to some Israeli factions.

If Trump leverages Gaza to justify West Bank annexation, his Middle East strategy—no matter how chaotic—could succeed in permanently reshaping the region.