What Does Israel Want from the New Syria?

Israel’s approach to the new Syria is marked by an overtly hostile stance. The Israeli leadership viewed the emerging geopolitical shifts as a threat to Israeli national security, and from the moment the Assad regime fell, Israel launched a series of airstrikes and ground incursions, resulting in the annexation and occupation of more Syrian territory. Israel has made its hostility to the new Syrian leadership clear, expressing its desire and determination to keep Syria a fragile, weak, and fragmented state without a strong central authority. Israel has explicitly conveyed its concerns and fears about the rising Turkish influence and its apprehension over the revival of Sunni political Islam, which is now dominating Damascus, and the potential implications this could have on the security of the Israeli state and the region.

The fall of the brutal, sectarian Assad regime in Syria following “Operation Deterrence” by opposition factions led by “Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham” on December 8, 2024, was an unpleasant surprise for the Israeli entity, but a welcome event for Turkey. While Turkey desires Syria to become a successful state, Israel wants to see a failed Syria. Therefore, following the fall of the Assad regime, Israel quickly launched a series of attacks. Tel Aviv did not limit itself to entering the buffer zone but took control of the strategic Mount Sheikh observatory and launched over 300 airstrikes, destroying the military infrastructure left by the Syrian regime, including weapons and missile storage depots and military research and production centers.

Although both Turkey and Israel benefitted greatly from the fragmentation of the Iran-led axis, particularly in Syria, Turkey emerged as the bigger winner. Meanwhile, Israel’s emotions fluctuated, leading to a temporary euphoria followed by constant anxiety. The hostility between Israel and Turkey is not comparable to the long-standing, bloody conflict between Israel and Iran and its proxies. The challenges facing Turkish-Israeli relations in the Middle East after Assad’s fall signal a decisive turning point in regional geopolitics, radically altering the dynamics that had shaped historical ties between Turkey and Israel. These relations had oscillated between pragmatic alliances and ideological divisions, and the removal of their common enemy in Syria has shifted the regional power balance, creating new challenges and destabilizing their already fragile relations.

The collapse of the “Axis of Resistance” led by Iran in Syria, along with its diminished regional influence and the retreat of its ambitious project that extended from Iran and Iraq through Syria to Lebanon’s Hezbollah, represented a temporary security boon for Israel. However, Israel soon grew concerned that the new Sunni Islamic axis, led by Turkey, might become as dangerous as—or even surpass—the Iranian threat over time. The overt support by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan for Israel’s enemies, particularly Hamas, could develop into something much more concerning.

According to the report by the Israeli Defense Budget Committee, published on January 6, 2025, Turkey’s ambitions to “restore the Ottoman crown to its former glory” pose an urgent security challenge. The committee advised Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to prepare for a potential war with Turkey due to growing Israeli concerns over Turkey’s alliance with the new administration in Damascus following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. The committee highlighted the threat of a Syrian-Turkish alliance, which could “create a new, major threat to Israel’s security,” possibly becoming “more dangerous than the Iranian threat,” according to the report. The committee was formed in 2023, prior to the Gaza war, to provide recommendations to the Israeli Ministry of Defense regarding potential conflict zones Israel may face in the coming years. The committee is chaired by Yaakov Nagel, former head of Israel’s National Security Council.

The threat posed by Turkey to Israel is a serious challenge to Israel’s security, particularly in light of the evolving international and regional geopolitical shifts. The Turkish military is one of the largest and most powerful in the Middle East, comprising 425,000 active soldiers and 380,000 reserves. According to security sources, Turkey’s increasing influence in Syria as a dominant power necessitates a serious review of its military capabilities. Turkish-backed militias in Syria, such as the “Syrian National Army,” pose a potential threat to Israel, particularly along the Syrian-Israeli border. President Erdoğan could also leverage groups such as Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, led by current president Ahmad al-Shara, against Israel.

Al-Jolani, the leader of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, had previously stated, “With God’s help, we will not only reach Damascus, but Jerusalem awaits us.” Erdoğan has also made direct threats to Israel, stating on July 28, 2024, during a conference for the Justice and Development Party: “Just as we entered Karabakh and Libya, we will do the same with Israel.”

Israel’s preferred scenario in Syria is fragmentation and division, creating weak, fragile states based on ethnic and sectarian lines. This is the only way Israel can establish itself as a natural state in the region through its Jewish, racist entity. In Syria, this vision manifests in the creation of fragile states based on ethnic, sectarian, and religious divides, a traditional colonial vision. Israel’s wish is to see Syria divided into several enclaves: Kurds in the northeast, Druze in the south, and Alawites in the west.

Reuters revealed, citing four informed sources, that Israel is pushing the United States to maintain a weak, fragmented Syria without a strong central authority, including allowing Russia to retain its military bases to counter the growing Turkish influence in the country. The sources added that Israel has informed Washington that the new Islamist rulers in Syria, backed by Ankara, pose a threat to its borders. According to Reuters, three American sources confirmed that Israel is deeply concerned about Turkey’s role as an ally of the new Syrian administration.

In this context, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a warning to the new Damascus administration on February 23, stating, “We will not allow the new Syrian regime’s forces to deploy south of Damascus.” He demanded the full withdrawal of these forces from southern Syria and emphasized that Israel “will not tolerate any threat to the Druze community” in the region. These statements coincided with a series of Israeli military attacks targeting areas in rural Damascus and southern Syria. Israel later carried out more strikes on February 25 against military sites in Damascus, Daraa, and Quneitra, and also carried out a ground incursion into towns and villages along the administrative border between the two governorates.

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that the attacks “are part of the new policy we have set to evacuate southern Syria of weapons, and the message is clear: We will not allow southern Syria to become southern Lebanon.”

Following tensions on March 1, 2025, due to clashes between the new Syrian regime’s security forces and local Druze fighters in the Jaramana suburb near Damascus, which resulted in one death and nine injuries, Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz issued instructions for Israeli forces to “prepare to defend” the Druze-majority city of Jaramana. A statement from Katz’s office confirmed that the city was “currently under attack by Syrian regime forces.” Katz declared: “We will not allow the extremist Islamic regime in Syria to harm the Druze. If the regime harms the Druze, we will strike back.” He added, “We are committed to doing everything in our power to prevent harm to our Druze brothers in Syria and will take all necessary steps to ensure their safety.”

Israel’s aggressive policies in Syria are supported by unwavering U.S. military and political backing. What the Israeli leadership deems necessary for its national security is ratified by the U.S. administration, which inherently views Israel’s aggressive practices as a strategic right of self-defense. The Zionist colonial settlement is the cornerstone of the American project for dominance over the Middle East, and the U.S. demands from the new Syrian leadership to ensure Israel’s security and fight any groups or entities that oppose Israel, which Washington has clearly expressed. When the head of the new Syrian administration, Ahmad al-Shara, met with a high-level U.S. diplomatic delegation in Damascus on December 20, 2024, the issue of ensuring Israel’s security and combating groups that threaten the security of the settlement was central to the discussions. U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf said after the meeting that Abu Mohammed al-Jolani committed during the meeting in Damascus to preventing “terrorist groups” from operating in Syria and threatening the United States and neighboring countries (Israel). For decades, the U.S. has approached the region with the necessity of combating “Islamic terrorism” and ensuring the security of Israel (the Zionist entity).

In conclusion, the new Syria will remain under the weight of the perceptions defined by the Zionist colonial settlement, which is unconditionally endorsed by the United States. Israel’s vision involves a weak, fragmented, and unstable Syria with no strong central authority, aligned with a traditional colonial approach based on the principle of “divide and conquer,” manipulating ethnic, religious, and sectarian components. The existence of a Sunni-dominated regime in Syria is seen as a catastrophe and a threat, potentially leading to the emergence of a larger Sunni alliance and the growth of Turkey’s rising influence. This indicates the return of Sunni political Islam, which the U.S. fears for its implications on the security of the Israeli state and regional stability.

Therefore, the reassurances from the new Syrian regime will not succeed, and it will remain under the pressure of political classifications of terrorism. The U.S. administration will remain loyal to securing the presence and interests of the Zionist colonial settlement in the region, fulfilling Israeli security and political requirements. No matter how Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham reshapes its ideology or sends reassuring messages to the world and regional countries, it will not gain the approval of the U.S. and Israel, and it will remain under the pressures of sabotage under the pretext of “terrorism.” The U.S. and Israel will not be satisfied with the new regime without total submission. Therefore, the priority for the new Syria is to strengthen its alliance with Turkey, work diligently to establish a unified strong army, and suppress all separatist tendencies. The response to the Israeli colonial entity must be internal first, by taking decisive legal, military, and political measures against separatist components, starting with the Syrian Democratic Forces and then turning to other parallel entities.