Occupation and Hamas Explore Diplomatic and Military Options Amid Stalled Ceasefire

When a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas was announced in January, both Israelis and Palestinians celebrated, filled with optimism after fifteen months of war, according to a report published by The New York Times and translated by Arabi21.

The American newspaper stated that as the first phase of the agreement ended on Sunday, and Israel proposed a completely new proposal which Hamas rejected, concerns are rising about the resumption of fighting that has turned Gaza into rubble, resulted in the martyrdom of tens of thousands of Palestinians, and threatened the lives of hostages.

With the ceasefire in a deadlock, both Hamas and the occupying state are pursuing two tracks—one diplomatic and the other military, according to the report.

On the diplomatic front, the report said, Hamas insists on implementing the second phase of the original agreement, which calls for ending the war, a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, and the release of more prisoners.

However, Israel proposed a new suggestion to extend the current ceasefire for seven weeks. During this period, Hamas would be required to release half of the remaining living prisoners, as well as the remains of half of those who have passed away.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attributed the proposal on Sunday to the efforts of former U.S. President Donald Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff.

For weeks, Israel has been signaling that it is not interested in moving forward with the second phase of the agreement. While both sides initially agreed in principle to the second phase, they never reached the details and have had conflicting views.

Netanyahu has repeatedly stated that Hamas’s government and its military wing must be dismantled, a position shared by his right-wing allies in government. Hamas has indicated that it is willing to relinquish civilian rule in Gaza, but it strongly rejected the disbandment of its military wing, which is a crucial source of its power in the region.

It appears that the new proposal, as described by Netanyahu on Sunday, is an attempt to replace the ceasefire agreement with conditions that would allow Israel to return dozens of hostages and their remains without committing to end the war.

However, analysts, according to the report, stated that the proposal might be an effort to disrupt the ceasefire talks in a way that temporarily breaks the deadlock between Israel and Hamas.

The report quoted Shira Evron, an analyst at the Israeli Policy Forum, a research group based in New York, who said, “It’s not really feasible, but it’s an opening offer. It could force a discussion that connects the positions of both sides to extend the ceasefire for a few weeks or more.”

However, she added that it does not address the fundamental disagreements between Hamas and Israel about ending the war.

In a government meeting on Sunday, Netanyahu said the proposal includes a temporary ceasefire during Ramadan and the Jewish Passover holiday.

He added that half of the remaining hostages in Gaza would be returned to Israel at the beginning of the temporary ceasefire, and the other half would be deported at the end, if an agreement on a permanent ceasefire is reached.

In the first phase of the three-phase agreement reached in January, Hamas released 25 Israeli prisoners and handed over the bodies of eight others in exchange for over 1,500 Palestinian prisoners held by Israel. But in the absence of further planned prisoner exchanges, the incentives for Israel to maintain the ceasefire are fewer.

On Sunday, Hamas rejected the new proposal, describing it as “a blatant attempt to backtrack on the agreement and avoid negotiations regarding its second phase.”

Hamas considers the idea of immediately releasing half of the prisoners to be unfeasible, but it may be open to exchanging a small number of prisoners or bodies in return for Palestinian prisoners, even without committing to ending the war, analysts say. Prisoners are Hamas’s strongest leverage, and each time it exchanges an Israeli prisoner for Palestinian prisoners, it weakens its negotiating power.

According to the report, two Israeli officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations, acknowledged that Hamas might be willing to release only a small number of hostages or their remains, without guarantees of ending the war.

The officials said that this dynamic could eventually force Israel to choose between resuming the war to topple Hamas or saving the hostages believed to still be alive.

According to the Israeli government, about 25 prisoners and the remains of over 30 others remain in Gaza.

Retired General Yaakov Amidror, who served as national security adviser to Netanyahu, said: “Israel stands on the brink of a dilemma.”

Hamas spokesman Hazem Qassem said on Sunday that the armed group insists on negotiating the second phase because it wants to prevent the war from resuming and to ensure Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza.

He told Al Jazeera: “This is a fundamental stance for Hamas.”

Both Israel and Hamas have sent negotiators to speak with Egyptian and Qatari mediators. But even as diplomatic discussions continue, both sides are preparing for the possibility of returning to war.

Hamas has gathered unexploded bombs throughout Gaza and is reusing explosives and metal casings as primitive explosive devices, according to a member of Hamas’s military wing, the Qassam Brigades, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive details.

The source told The New York Times that Hamas has also been recruiting new members and appointing leaders to replace those killed in combat, according to the report.

Israel is widely preparing for a new, intense campaign in Gaza, according to Israeli officials. They said that “any new operations will include targeting Hamas officials who are siphoning off aid supplies intended for civilians, as well as destroying buildings and infrastructure used by Hamas’s civilian government.”

Israeli officials said that such a plan has not yet been approved by the Israeli Cabinet, but they believe that only Trump could deter Netanyahu from renewing the war.

While Israel and Hamas wrestle over the future of Gaza, Palestinian civilians in the enclave face a period of anxiety and uncertainty.

Akram Attallah, a Palestinian writer based in London from Jabalia in northern Gaza, said: “They live in a constant state of worry. If the war returns, they will lose more than anyone else.”