Why the Gaza ceasefire has effectively collapsed

The ceasefire in Gaza has effectively collapsed as it transitions from one phase focused on the release of Israeli captives, which is politically palatable in Israel, to the messier question of who will govern the Gaza Strip.

The first phase, which officially ended over the weekend, saw the release of 33 Israeli captives in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. It endured because it was generally popular in Israel and saw support from US President Donald Trump’s administration, which was eager to time the release of captives with the presidential inauguration.

Israel has halted all aid delivery to the Strip and says it plans to cut off electricity.

Israel’s Channel 12, citing an Israeli official, said on Monday that the government has set a deadline 10 days from now for Hamas to release the remaining captives in Gaza before a return to fighting.

“We are currently at a dead end regarding the deal negotiations,” the official told Channel 12.

Hamas has said that it will only release Israeli captives in phases, per the ceasefire agreement, which Israel is now refusing to continue.

Israel is seeking an extension of phase I of the talks while Hamas has said the ceasefire should move to phase II.

At the time the ceasefire was signed, Middle East Eye reported that the real question of its durability would come after the backslapping, when Israel and Hamas were required to begin talks on a total Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and a permanent end to the fighting.

But neither Israel nor the United States seem to have the same urgency in negotiating with Hamas outside the narrow confines of releasing captives.

Israeli and Hamas officials belatedly met in Cairo last week for indirect talks on a permanent end to the war. But those talks were supposed to have started weeks ago with enough lead time to hammer out differences.

Over the weekend, the US’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, released a plan for a temporary extension of phase I which would see half of the living captives and half the bodies of those who have died released in exchange for a suspension of fighting.

On Monday, Witkoff announced he was travelling to the Middle East in the coming days to work out a solution to the impasse, but there was no indication which way the US is leaning.

The US State Department’s spokesperson said, “Special Envoy Witkoff plans to return to the region in the coming days to work out either a way to extend phase I or advance to phase II.”

Dwindling captives

Hamas was motivated to agree to the ceasefire because of the vague promise that it held for a permanent end to the war and cessation of fighting. For Israel, the most popular part of the ceasefire was getting back its captives, not ending the war.

Hamas’s public captive handover ceremonies during phase I, where they displayed their military coherence, only reminded Israelis that they failed in their goal to eliminate the group in full, as the government had promised. 

The political costs of resuming the war are also shrinking for Israel’s government. 

There now are only 27 living captives left in the Gaza Strip and 32 bodies of those who died in captivity, according to the Associated Press. Women, children, and elderly captives were released in phase I and the remainder are mainly military-aged males. For Israel, that potentially gives them scope to ratchet up pressure on Hamas and not face as much public blowback. 

As things stand now, there is essentially no ceasefire in place.

Trump has previously publicly said he backs whatever decision Israel takes.

Arming Israel

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office on Sunday announced that Israel would resume its siege of the Gaza Strip, halting “all entry of goods and supplies.” Both Egypt and Qatar, who mediated the January ceasefire, accused Israel of violating the deal, but ABC News reported that Israel coordinated the move with the Trump administration.

Meanwhile, on Saturday, the US approved a $4bn arms sale to Israel, bypassing Congress by using an emergency authority. The sale includes more than 35,000 2,000-pound bombs.

With less than 30 living captives left in the Gaza Strip and the United States near public approval to resume fighting, Netanyahu might calculate that it is in his interest to resume attacking Gaza.

Israel’s threats and the blocking of aid supplies could also be directed in another direction: its Arab neighbours.

Is Israel pressuring Arab states?

Arab leaders are set to meet in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on Tuesday to discuss a plan for the reconstruction and governance of the Gaza Strip.

Middle East Eye has reported on an Egyptian proposal that would see Hamas step aside for a new Palestinian government that does not include senior Palestinian Authority officials from the West Bank.

The plan is designed so that Hamas does not maintain an armed group within Gaza outside of government. Egypt says that Gulf states will have a role “on the ground in the Gaza Strip” through reconstruction investments to lure Hamas away from its arms.

Reuters reported on Monday that Egypt is warning there will be no reconstruction investment if Hamas remains the “dominant and armed political element” controlling government.

In its public statements, the Trump administration has backed off its calls for a US takeover of the enclave that would see a forced displacement of its Palestinian inhabitants, which has been called “ethnic cleansing” by world leaders and human rights institutions. But Israel could see a resumption of the war as an opportunity to press Palestinians to leave.

On Monday, Netanyahu hailed Trump’s “visionary and innovative” plan to forcibly remove Palestinians from Gaza, saying it was “time to give them the freedom to leave”.