What does Egypt’s post-war Gaza plan mean for Hamas?

Egypt’s 91-page plan for the future of Gaza, unveiled at an extraordinary Arab League summit in Cairo this week, makes no mention of Hamas.

The proposal sets out a $53bn budget and a five-year timescale for the reconstruction of the Palestinian enclave, devastated by 15 months of Israeli war. It also outlines a vision for post-war governance in Gaza.

Arab states, including Egypt, are proposing their own alternative to a plan to forcibly expel Palestinians from Gaza proposed by US President Donald Trump.

Cairo’s plan states that for the first six months, the territory would be run by a non-partisan technocratic committee, overseen by the Palestinian Authority (PA).

Then the PA, which administers the occupied West Bank, would make its full return to Gaza.

Hamas, which has controlled Gaza since 2007, is not mentioned once in the lengthy document. And yet Hamas has reacted positively to the proposal and called for its implementation.

While some headlines have branded Egypt’s proposal as “side-lining” or “excluding” Hamas, the group is still central to the future of the enclave.

“Nobody will rule Gaza without Hamas’ agreement,” Qossay Hamed, an expert on Hamas and academic at Al-Quds Open University in Ramallah, told Middle East Eye.

“It doesn’t mean that Hamas will be part of governing Gaza in the future. But at least Hamas will not be out of the picture.”

Sami al-Arian, a Palestinian academic and human rights activist, agreed.

“The bureaucratic structure in Gaza for the past 17 years was controlled by Hamas. It’s not going to go away overnight,” he told MEE.

Hamas officials reiterated this week that the group is “not interested” in being part of any administrative structure in post-war Gaza.

The group defines itself as an Islamic resistance movement, which, Hamed explained, “emphasised military action and de-emphasised political action”.

As such, it would be likely to agree to rolling back its day-to-day running of the territory – something that was never part of the group’s stated aims. But giving up its arms is another matter altogether.

Hamas armed wing ‘untouchable’

While Egypt’s plan doesn’t name Hamas specifically, it does make references to armed groups in Gaza.

The proposal states: “The dilemma of the multiplicity of Palestinian parties carrying weapons remains, which is something that can be dealt with. 

“Rather, it can be ended forever only if its causes are removed through a clear horizon and a credible political process that restores rights to their owners.”

The plan posits that the establishment of a Palestinian state, an end to Israeli occupation which began in 1967, and an Israeli withdrawal from all Palestinian lands, “is supposed to constitute the end of all Palestinian resistance activities of any kind”. 

With virtually no demand from Israel’s far-right government to end the occupation or bring about a two state solution, the wording of the Arab League proposal appears to allow Hamas and other groups in Gaza to remain armed. 

“The Egyptian plan is accurate in identifying Israeli occupation as the root cause of the violent acts carried out by Hamas and other groups,” Annelle Sheline, a former US State Department official who resigned over the Gaza war, told MEE.

Sheline said that as long as the US continued to provide Israel with unlimited financial and diplomatic support, Israel had no incentive to end the occupation, “so Hamas or a similar group will remain powerful”. 

According to the Arab League proposal, Egypt and Jordan will train Palestinian police forces in preparation for their deployment in post-war Gaza. 

The plan also states that the UN Security Council should consider “an international presence” in both the Gaza Strip and the occupied West Bank. 

That would include “issuing a resolution to deploy international protection/peacekeeping forces” within a timetable of establishing a Palestinian state. 

Hamed said that any conversation about alternative forces in Gaza would need to involve Hamas. 

“Whether the PA, whether Arab troops or even international troops, none of them will succeed to rule Gaza without a real agreement with Hamas,” he said. 

He noted that while Hamas would likely reduce its presence on the streets, it would not allow its armed wing, the Qassam Brigades, to be dismantled. 

“For Hamas this is an untouchable item,” he said. “I don’t think that Hamas will accept that Gaza will be out of its control.

“Hamas wants to control Gaza but doesn’t want to rule Gaza.”

Such a reality has existed before. 

Hamas was armed in Gaza for several years while Fatah ruled the Strip, until the two groups fought in June 2007 and Hamas took control of the enclave. 

PA lacking legitimacy 

For the PA, which is ruled by the deeply unpopular President Mahmoud Abbas and dominated by his Fatah faction, to return to Gaza, it would need to gain support from the Palestinian public. 

“There has to be a transitional process to an election, whereby Abbas will allow for elections to take place across all Palestinian territories,” Andreas Krieg, assistant professor at King’s College London’s defence studies department, told MEE.

Krieg said that Hamas may re-invent itself into a new political party, using existing political structures under a different name.

“The constituency of Palestinians in Gaza who feel represented by Hamas on that sort of spectrum might not vote for Fatah, and they might vote for an alternative,” he said.

Sheline said that Egypt’s proposal failed to take into account that Israel “has used the PA to enforce its occupation of the West Bank”.

“This, combined with the PA’s corruption and lack of democratic accountability, have eroded any legitimacy the PA once had,” she said.

Notably, Abbas announced on Tuesday an amnesty for previously expelled members of Fatah.

Some have viewed it as a move that could open the door for the return of Mohammed Dahlan, the exiled former Fatah leader who is now an adviser to the UAE president.

“I do not think Dahlan will be back in Gaza, but I think he will probably have a lot of control if the UAE is part of any future structure,” said Arian.

Krieg said that Dahlan had very little support on the ground in Gaza, and had undermined his credibility by working closely with the Emiratis in recent years.

Marwan Barghouti, the long-imprisoned Fatah figure who has wide popular support among Palestinians, has been touted as a potential unifying figure in Gaza and the West Bank.

Barghouti, whose release is being negotiated as part of the second stage of the ceasefire, is one of few politicians who has supporters in Hamas, Islamic Jihad and parts of Fatah too.

“He might be able to rally sufficient support, given his stature within the Palestinian community,” said Sheline.

“However, Israel is not interested in providing the Palestinians with strong leaders. They prefer the corrupt, aged, and ineffective Abbas.”