The Secret Formula for Arab Leaders to Escape Trump’s Whims

Almost all world leaders agree that what happens in the world is directly tied to what is on Trump’s mind and the shifting nature of his mood. The problem lies in his behavior; in addition to his aggressive and harsh nature, his actions add more chaos to an already chaotic international system, edging closer to destruction. Trump’s daily thinking revolves around how to extract profits for America at the expense of others, leading them to inevitably suffer losses. He believes only in zero-sum equations and absolute gains, where profits cannot be shared among many, and he must always be the one to win. As for the other side, they must bear the pain of the loss—there is no other solution according to Trump’s mood.

What differentiates Trump from previous U.S. presidents is that he has brought to light American diplomatic methods of extortion and provocation that were previously hidden behind closed doors in the White House. Hardly anyone knew about them except American officials who kept them to themselves. As for their counterparts in other countries, it is certain that anyone who finds themselves in awkward positions will not dare discuss them with others. Perhaps this difference stems from Trump’s psychological nature that favors transparency, to the extent that we have heard about scandals surrounding his involvement with adult film actresses in U.S. courts.

This indifferent mentality of Trump is also built on his passion for shortening time, as if he sees the four years he will spend in the White House as insufficient to satisfy his hunger for power. He acts in ways that maximize his narcissism, pushing for as many decisions as possible that cater to his ego and his desire to dominate the world. Thus, he turned the Oval Office into a battlefield, a wrestling ring, a peace table, and one for making deals. He began receiving world leaders—more accurately, forcing them to visit his White House—so he could dictate how their countries should behave in this world in alignment with his political gains and the profits the United States reaps from these humiliating sessions.

Trump does not care much for the issue of “ethics” in his diplomatic actions, and thus, he does not maintain decorum when interacting with his counterparts or guests during meetings. He is not concerned with speaking politely or behaving gracefully. He derives his “legitimacy” for his bullying from his country’s military, economic, scientific, and technological superiority, as well as its geopolitical position. He uses the language of his cowboy ancestors, spewing the harshest words to frame his statements. He is like a wrestling promoter who is fascinated by its rough and swift style in resolving conflicts. Thus, he has become obsessed with quickly concluding political deals and imposing them on the other party through force. It is muscle power—not the physical muscles as in wrestling, but the muscles of intimidation and embarrassment in the Oval Office, before the eyes of his presidential team, journalists, and the world.

We know that international politics is based on relationships of influence and dependence. Those who possess power are the ones who influence, and those who feel weak in the face of it, unable to confront it, will undoubtedly be affected and feel the pressure of coercion. This is where the path toward submission and concession begins. For Trump, influence means subjugation and extortion. Through the conversations he held with some world leaders, we will see how they face the power of America—do they easily succumb to Trump’s subjugation, or do they resist? How do his allies, whom he welcomed into his Oval Office, understand his support for them?

Trump did not hesitate to summon Mohammed bin Salman to his office. As soon as he expressed his intention to visit Saudi Arabia as his first destination after his election, he demanded that Saudi Arabia raise its investments by $50 billion from the previous package in his first term, bringing it to $500 billion in his second term. Bin Salman responded without hesitation, offering $600 billion if needed. Trump then proposed a new figure of $1 trillion, as long as the crown prince was generous with such an amount. Since then, the Saudi crown prince has remained silent—no one knows whether this silence signals approval or regret for opening his mouth in the first place.

With Zelensky, things were different. Trump tried, after setting a trap for him in the Oval Office, to force him to accept an agreement allowing America to exploit rare earth mineral mines in Ukraine. However, the American president did not expect that his Ukrainian counterpart would have the courage to such an extent that a “comedian” would become his equal in his own house, in front of his staff. This abrupt exchange led to an outcome that would forever be etched in the history of Trump’s whims.

Now, how can one escape from the trap of Trump’s mood? Perhaps the brilliant American writer Thomas Friedman, in addressing Arab leaders, first pointed out their mistake: they treat him like a king and pay him for his loyalty, while they misunderstand the logic of a stable and prosperous state built on law and institutions. Even the United States could easily collapse under Trump’s rule, as he continues to undermine its institutional system, replacing it with his personal whims.

Friedman sees this and suggests a “magic recipe” for Arabs to escape Trump’s arrogance. Its ingredients are not impossible; just a little resistance to his policies and not allowing him to impose his desires on them without receiving something in return. They should also set clear terms in their dealings with him, following a well-defined plan, especially not offering him concessions for free.

From my side, I add a crucial ingredient to Friedman’s recipe: the need to create a unified Arab stance, making Arab leaders ready to confront Trump and say “no” to his whims. The absence of such a position is the weakness that Trump exploits to deliver his final blow, knocking them down one by one in his Oval Office arena.