3 Critical Factors that Will Weaken Trump’s Power… What Are They?

The disagreement that unfolded between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office was not a mere coincidence; it was carefully orchestrated to show everyone—especially the Republican elite—the foreign policy Trump intends to pursue in the next four years.

Isolation or Globalization?

The tension between isolationism and globalization in U.S. foreign policy has persisted for over a century. One of the clearest manifestations of globalization was President Woodrow Wilson’s Fourteen Points in 1918, which outlined a vision for a new world order after World War I. Wilson proposed the creation of the League of Nations, but when the organization was founded, the U.S. Senate rejected even joining it, reflecting a clear American tendency towards isolationism.

Americans have their reasons for withdrawing from international affairs. The main reason is their geographic location: vast oceans surround them, and they share borders only with Canada and Mexico, offering a high level of self-security. Additionally, this location distances them from Europe and Asia.

Another reason is the size of the United States itself. It is a massive federal entity, about forty times the size of England, consisting of fifty states. For Americans, simply understanding the map of their own country and its history is enough to focus on, and they do not feel an urgent need to know or travel to other parts of the world.

Despite these factors, the United States has pursued a globalist foreign policy since World War II. First, it defeated Japan and Germany, then adopted a global containment policy against the Soviet Union.

During this period, U.S. economic interests became dominant. America’s reliance on oil and its companies—controlling 40% of global production—needed to expand into new markets, which was a driving force for pursuing globalist policies.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, “counter-terrorism” replaced “counter-communism” in U.S. global policy. After the September 11 attacks, George W. Bush’s administration invaded Iraq and Afghanistan.

Although Barack Obama’s administration viewed these invasions as strategic mistakes, it continued globalist policies. Trump, however, raised the slogan “America First” during his first term but did not make significant changes to the policies. Then, Joe Biden’s administration re-energized the Western alliance under his leadership, especially in the face of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Chaos at Home… Chaos in the World

Today, Trump seeks to halt U.S. support for Ukraine, using pro-Russian rhetoric to detach the United States from the Western alliance and end its role as the protector of the global order.

Trump’s stance on the war fronts (Ukraine and Gaza) aligns with his approach of empowering the strong to crush the weak. In Gaza, he proposes forcibly relocating Palestinians, a suggestion Israel itself has never dared to voice publicly. In Ukraine, he accuses Zelensky of being a “dictator with no popularity” and claims that he started the war, a narrative even the Russians themselves do not adopt.

Everyone knows that Trump’s positions contradict international law. The United States had signed an agreement with Russia guaranteeing Ukraine’s territorial integrity after its independence in exchange for abandoning its nuclear arsenal. However, such agreements mean nothing to Trump, as he only acknowledges the logic of power.

In the short term, Trump has the power to implement whatever he wants; Republicans in Congress and the conservative judges who dominate the Supreme Court will not oppose a new Republican president. But will Trump succeed in the long term? Three factors weaken his chances:

First, Trump came to power with the support of only half of the voters, and polling shows his popularity has now dropped below 50%. His economic policies are built on two pillars: the first is increasing tariffs on international trade, and the second is deporting a large portion of immigrants. Both policies will lead to higher prices and inflation, which contradicts the promise he made when he took office to lower them. Unlike in other societies, Americans do not tolerate economic decline.

Second, Trump has no international allies except for Russia and Israel. In a short time, he has alienated close neighbors, such as Canada, and offended his European allies. This disregard for foreign relations will come at a high economic cost for U.S. companies. The U.S. cannot continue to reap the benefits of the global economy while actively dismantling the system upon which it relies. An example of this is the decline in Tesla’s sales in Europe and the drop in its stock value over the past month, which signals the beginning of an economic downward spiral.

Third, Trump is pursuing these foreign policy ventures while the domestic scene is in turmoil. Elon Musk, whom Trump appointed to run a new agency under the guise of reducing costs, is laying off large numbers of government employees and insulting bureaucrats almost daily, creating the impression that Trump’s administration adopts a combative approach both at home and abroad.

It is unclear how successful Trump will be in reshaping U.S. policy, but what is certain is that the global order once led by the United States has been dismantled by its very own president. Welcome to the new chaos of the world!