How Trump Foiled Israel’s Plan to Expel Gaza’s Residents

Israel remained silent in response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s statements in which he declared, “No one will expel any Palestinian from Gaza,” contrary to his earlier proposed plan to expel most Gaza residents and resettle them primarily in Jordan and Egypt, while turning the Gaza Strip into the “Riviera of the Middle East” during his meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House in February.

This silence reflected a divergence of positions between Washington and Tel Aviv regarding the aftermath of the war on Gaza. It also pushed Trump toward a settlement through a comprehensive exchange deal and the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip, unlike Netanyahu’s approach, which focused on a staged deal aimed at prolonging the war.

Trump’s new statements carried multiple messages both to the Israeli public and to Middle Eastern countries, especially after the Israeli far-right, through Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, announced the establishment of a new office to oversee the mass expulsion of Gaza’s residents. This represented a setback to the far-right’s agenda of transfer and resettlement in Gaza.

Prelude to Confrontation

This also coincided with a meeting between the foreign ministers of Egypt, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, the UAE, and Hussein al-Sheikh, the Secretary-General of the Palestinian Liberation Organization, with U.S. Middle East envoy, Stephen Wittecoff, to discuss Cairo’s plan for Gaza’s reconstruction.

In contrast to the official silence in Tel Aviv, Israeli analysts offered various interpretations of Trump’s statements and the White House’s efforts toward a comprehensive settlement, including the release of all detainees at once, which many saw as a precursor to a clash between Trump and Netanyahu, who fears such a confrontation.

Avi Yiskarov, an Israeli journalist specializing in Arab and Palestinian affairs, states that Trump’s remarks effectively killed Israel’s far-right plans for transfer and resettlement in Gaza. He added, “Just like that, in the blink of an eye, it seemed as though Trump’s plan to expel Palestinians from Gaza had died before it could even be born. This is a real concern for Netanyahu’s government.”

Yiskarov continues, “It’s unclear whether Trump’s statement was made in the same unplanned, spontaneous way the mass expulsion plan was proposed a month ago. We can expect many surprises from both the supporters and opponents of the expulsion plan in the coming months, because Trump remains unpredictable. He may return to the idea of expulsion and then backtrack, forcing Israel to come up with more realistic plans for Gaza’s future.”

He concludes, “In reality, Trump’s statements and policies are causing concern for Netanyahu’s government. While Trump is talking about not expelling any Palestinians from Gaza, Arab foreign ministers are meeting in Doha with Wittecoff to support the Egyptian initiative to resolve the Gaza crisis. Meanwhile, Israel has yet to propose a realistic plan for Gaza’s future and is threatening to resume the war.”

Submission to U.S. Pressure

In the absence of any realistic Israeli proposal for Gaza’s future, political analyst Itamar Eichner suggests that Trump might impose his foreign policy on Netanyahu, especially in the Middle East. This includes decisions on peace, war, and the prisoner exchange deal with Hamas, indicating that Trump holds the decisive word in Israel’s policies.

In an article titled “Partner or Homeowner? Netanyahu’s Honeymoon with Trump May Soon Turn Sour,” Eichner reviewed Trump’s imposition on Israel regarding Washington’s policies in the Middle East, the future of Gaza, and the push to end wars in order to return to normalization.

Eichner explains that Trump, who understands Israel’s interests, is pushing for a comprehensive exchange deal, having initiated direct negotiations between the U.S. and Hamas. He is also revisiting discussions on redrawing borders with Lebanon, which contradicts Netanyahu’s approach during the war. Eichner stated, “Netanyahu is surrendering to all of Trump’s demands, who wants to be Israel’s prime minister too.”

Eichner believes Netanyahu is “forced” to make decisions he doesn’t want to, as those in the White House are imposing them. He said, “Israel has become subject to the U.S. agenda and is accepting Trump’s demands, despite Netanyahu knowing that if he refuses, he will face the same fate as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.”

A Comprehensive Deal

The same perspective was shared by Eitan Ben Eliyahu, former commander of the Israeli Air Force, who said that Israel is currently focused on securing the release of detainees, which was previously considered a secondary issue for Netanyahu’s government, which is now facing “light” pressure from Trump’s administration to complete the second phase of the deal.

In an article on Channel 12’s website, he added, “However, the second phase of the agreement and the exchange deal is a complex and comprehensive process involving many regional and international partners. It requires time, leadership, and the management of a large-scale international project. The key to the success of the deal is that both parties must be genuinely interested in executing it.”

Eliyahu concludes, “It won’t be long before we see public pressure from the U.S. administration on Tel Aviv. Therefore, the Israeli government must cooperate with Wittecoff and support his efforts to avoid a confrontation. Otherwise, the resumption of fighting could be imminent, posing a serious threat to the lives of detainees. Israel may find itself involved in imposing military rule in Gaza for an indefinite period.”