Has Syria Become a Theater for Proxy War Between Turkey and Israel?

The Associated Press reported that the downfall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime has exacerbated the already strained relations between Turkey and Israel. It highlighted that the conflicting interests of both parties in Syria are steering the relationship toward a potential collision course.

The agency pointed out that Turkey, which has long supported opposition groups to Assad, advocates for a stable and unified Syria, where a central government retains control over the entire country. Turkey welcomed an agreement signed this week by the new Syrian government with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), led by the Kurds, to integrate them with the Syrian government and military.

On the other hand, the Associated Press noted that Israel harbors deep suspicions towards Syrian President Ahmed al-Shara and is wary of Turkish influence in Syria. It seems that Israel would prefer Syria to remain fragmented after the country, under Assad’s rule, turned into a launchpad for Iran and its proxies.

Turkish-Israeli Clash

Aslı Aydıntasbaş from the Brookings Institute, based in Washington, stated: “Syria has become a theater for a proxy war between Turkey and Israel, who see each other as regional competitors. This is a very dangerous dynamic because there is a clash between Turkish and Israeli positions on everything related to Syria’s political transition.”

After Assad’s downfall, Israel took control of territories in southern Syria, and Israeli officials said this was aimed at keeping “hostile groups” away from their borders. Israel also carried out airstrikes targeting military sites left by Assad’s forces and expressed plans to maintain a long-term presence in the region.

Both the Syrian government and the United Nations confirmed that Israeli incursions violate the 1974 ceasefire agreement between the two countries, calling on Israel to withdraw.

Analysts say that Israel is concerned about the possibility of Turkey expanding its military presence inside Syria. Since 2016, Turkey has launched operations in northern Syria against militants linked to the banned Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and maintained influence in the northern part of the country. Turkish defense officials stated that Ankara and Damascus are now cooperating to strengthen the security of the country.

Fragmented Syria

Nimrod Goren, head of the Mitvim Institute – an Israeli foreign policy think tank – said that unlike Turkey, which supports a strong, central, and stable Syria, Israel seems to currently favor a fragmented Syria, believing it could enhance Israel’s security.

He noted that Israel “is concerned about al-Shara and his Islamic connections, fearing that his unified power could pose what Israel described as a jihadist threat along its northern borders.”

In turn, Ayşegül Aydıntaşbaş from the Brookings Institute stated that the escalating tensions are causing serious concern. She said: “In the past, Israel and Turkey occasionally had disagreements, but they were able to separate security relations from everything else. However, now they are actively trying to undermine each other. The question is: do the two countries know their red lines?”

A report from the Institute for National Security Studies – a research institution led by a former head of Israeli military intelligence – suggests that Israel might benefit from engaging with Turkey, “the only regional power with significant influence over the Syrian leadership, to reduce the risk of military conflict between Israel and Syria.”

Source: Associated Press