“Top Secret”… Netanyahu’s Steps and Motivations for Resuming the War

Israel has shattered the ceasefire agreement it signed about two months ago, after consistently violating it and returned to waging its brutal war on the Gaza Strip, with U.S. support. Unlike the beginning of the war on October 7, 2023, the Israeli government does not enjoy widespread internal support for this war. Many in the opposition and the families of the prisoners strongly doubt the motives behind it. Some in Israel believe that the resumption of the war and the violation of the agreement could lead to a prolonged war, essentially sentencing the remaining Israeli prisoners to death after 16 months of conflict.

The Israeli government announced that it had decided to resume the war on Gaza after feeling that the recent round of talks in Cairo earlier this week marked the final chapter in the joint diplomatic efforts of Israel and the United States to secure the release of Israeli prisoners, according to the Witekoff proposal or any similar proposal. There was a deep rift between Witekoff’s suggestion of releasing half of the Israeli prisoners—both living and deceased—as the first phase and Hamas’ proposal to release one living American prisoner and four other bodies. Witekoff then proposed releasing 10 of the 22 prisoners believed to be alive, later reducing the number to 8 and then 5. All these proposals were aimed at releasing the Israeli prisoners without tying it to the end of the war or reconstruction efforts, in exchange for a few days of ceasefire and aid entry. Hamas rejected all of these proposals and insisted on adhering to the original agreement, which the United States had guaranteed to be implemented.

It is clear that Israel, by resuming the war, continues the logic it reluctantly accepted in the final days of the Biden administration. It did not view the ceasefire agreement as acceptable, especially as significant elements of Netanyahu’s government rejected it—not only Itamar Ben-Gvir and his party, nor Bezalel Smotrich and his party, but also factions within Netanyahu’s own Likud party. Netanyahu and his government were never interested in finding a way to stop the war and prevent the further deterioration of Israel’s international standing, especially after the International Criminal Court accused Netanyahu and his former defense minister of war crimes and issued international arrest warrants for them. The Israeli government never intended to fully implement the ceasefire agreement signed in the final days of the Biden administration but violated it in a way that exceeded expectations. The agreement stipulated that both parties begin negotiations on the second phase, including moving towards ending the war, on the 16th day of the ceasefire. Israel rejected this and obstructed any serious negotiations about the second phase of the agreement during the past two months. Israel also attempted to convince the Trump administration to abandon the outline of the agreement brokered by the Biden administration, despite Trump’s boasting that he was behind the agreement. Netanyahu urged the U.S. to propose new ideas to circumvent the central commitment in the original agreement, which called for negotiations to end the war and rebuild Gaza.

Meanwhile, the Trump administration tried to establish direct contacts with Hamas to release the five American hostages and reach a broader political agreement, but Israel’s discovery of these communications led to their cancellation. After the U.S. backed away from these contacts, it, along with Israel, developed proposals linking an extension of the ceasefire to the release of Israeli prisoners, shifting to a strategy of issuing threats and working to implement them. Trump and his administration oscillated between making promises to end wars worldwide and in the region and threatening “hell” and “inferno,” essentially adopting Netanyahu’s logic of “eternal war.”

In the eyes of many Israelis, particularly former politicians and most current and former security and military officials, there was an urgent need for a ceasefire agreement to end the war and secure the release of prisoners. This, however, was never Netanyahu’s view. For him, the war has always been part of a plan to preserve his government, protect his leadership, and carry out a legal coup, even if it meant destroying the temple. Netanyahu’s government and its supporters have continued to call for the “eternal war” that would secure “absolute victory” and achieve the “goals of the war.” The essence of this approach has been the continued and escalated military pressure, despite all signs showing that this pressure has essentially led to the killing of prisoners rather than their safe return, with the living only returning due to political agreements.

There are several reasons that made the resumption of the war a necessity for Netanyahu and his government. The most obvious of these reasons is the blind American support for Israel, and the belief that Israel’s goals in the war are identical to those of the U.S., leading to the realization of American ambitions in the Middle East. A second reason is the huge political crisis Netanyahu’s government found itself in: a severe cabinet crisis with the Haredim over the conscription law, a ministerial crisis due to Smotrich’s stance on halting the war, a government crisis due to the inability to approve the budget, and a crisis of lost trust with those known in Israel as “Gatekeepers.” The gatekeepers are senior professional officials in the state, particularly in the military, security, and judiciary. Netanyahu and his government have nearly clashed with all of these groups, leading recently to the firing of former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Chief of Staff Herzl Halevi, as well as the announcement of plans to dismiss Shin Bet head Ronen Bar and begin procedures to fire the legal advisor to the government, Gali Behreab Miara.

Another reason for the war’s resumption might be Netanyahu’s recognition of shifts in U.S. policy regarding the Egyptian Arab reconstruction plan, which has gained diplomatic momentum. This threatens the opportunity that fueled the imagination of the Israeli right regarding the displacement of Palestinians from Gaza, in line with President Trump’s vision.

Another reason lies in the appointment of Eyal Zamir as Chief of Staff of the Israeli Army, aiming to achieve war goals, prompting him to quickly test his forces. He announced that Hamas could be defeated in a different ground operation within two months, unlike his predecessor, who waged a war for over a year and a few months without achieving Netanyahu’s government’s stated goals. Zamir’s plan ignores the strained situation within the reserve forces and the exhaustion of an army that has been at war for almost a year and a half. One cannot exclude Netanyahu’s personal and legal situation, including his ongoing trial on corruption charges, and the readiness of many popular, union, and academic bodies to resume popular protests, whether against the legal coup or in favor of ending the war and exchanging prisoners.

These protests are amplified by the belief of many that the motivations behind the resumption of the war are personal and partisan, aiming to bypass the will of the people and push through anti-democratic decisions. These individuals see Ben-Gvir’s return to the coalition and government seats as evidence of the flawed motivations behind resuming the war, especially since this was one of Ben-Gvir’s conditions, along with the dismissal of both the Shin Bet head and the legal advisor to the government. It is natural for all of these individuals to see the war’s resumption as nothing more than a complete abandonment of the noble goal of securing the return of prisoners, which no longer seems to be a priority.

Israel preemptively resumed the war by launching a series of military operations and media deception. In recent days, it tried to attribute every assassination operation carried out against civilians in northern, central, and southern Gaza to the prevention of mine and bomb planting operations against Israeli forces. It spread claims that Hamas and the resistance were preparing to launch a large-scale ground attack on settlements in Gaza’s envelope. Many of these allegations, including the recent criminalization of an Iftar gathering in Beit Lahia, where six civilians, including journalists, were killed for allegedly using a drone to target Israeli forces, were mere field warming tactics, aimed at conducting negotiations under fire, following a policy now publicly declared on almost all fronts.

In any case, Israel has attached to its resumption of the war and its broad attack on Gaza the declaration that it will not accept a situation in which Hamas participates in prisoner exchange negotiations while preparing its military wing to launch an attack on Israel. According to the “Walla” website, Israel informed Hamas through Egyptian mediators that the rules of the game had changed, and there would be no ceasefire without progress in the path to releasing Israeli prisoners. Additionally, Yedioth Ahronoth reported that Israel rejected an Egyptian request for a ceasefire, demanding that Hamas accept progress in prisoner exchange talks.

Israeli newspapers have indicated that the Israeli military’s preparations for a surprise attack on Gaza were classified as “top secret,” to the extent that the Gaza Division commanders and Southern Command were surprised by it. Military commentators for the Walla website noted that this surprise had achieved its intended result, catching Hamas leadership off guard. While social media was preparing for possible attacks on Iran, Israeli pilots were readying themselves to strike Gaza. Israeli commentators considered the element of surprise to have been successfully achieved, leading to the martyrdom of a relatively large number of Hamas leaders and other resistance factions.

Israel threatens that Zamir’s military plan to crush Hamas in Gaza speaks of advancing troops into the sector, “purging” certain areas, and relocating civilians to what it calls “humanitarian areas,” while activating a voluntary migration assistance program for all those wishing to leave the strip. This time, Israel hopes that its forces will remain in the areas they occupy and take charge of distributing humanitarian aid and managing the lives of the population as necessary. Israel believes that by doing so, it can create an alternative to Hamas that it chooses itself, ensuring the prevention of any future risks like those of October 7.

In general, what Netanyahu seeks today is to ensure that Ben-Gvir and his party vote in favor of the government when the national budget is presented to the Knesset by the end of the month. Securing this vote would provide an oxygen pipe that extends the life of Netanyahu’s government in the face of internal challenges. However, amid expected storms, it is not certain whether Netanyahu’s gamble will succeed this time in removing the obstacles blocking his path and preventing the collapse of the right-wing government.