Is Trump Planning Ground Intervention in Yemen?

Events in Yemen are accelerating following recent American airstrikes in Sana’a, Saada, Al-Bayda, and other Yemeni regions, targeting military objectives and Houthi leadership locations. This has raised concerns among Yemenis about the potential return of war to their country, especially with the exchange of threats between the Houthis and the United States, each pledging to continue attacks against one another.

The recent American airstrikes have led to the death of dozens of Yemeni civilians, including women and children, according to Houthi sources. The Houthis have been particularly vocal regarding the ongoing war in Gaza, even from the beginning, when they began targeting Israeli maritime vessels in the Red Sea. They have repeatedly emphasized that these attacks will continue as long as the bloodshed in Gaza persists.

Now, the Houthis are demanding that the international community swiftly deliver food and medical supplies to Gaza in exchange for halting their attacks in the Red Sea region.

Before launching their most recent attacks, the Houthi leadership gave the world a four-day ultimatum to deliver the necessary aid to Gaza, or they would resume their attacks in the Red Sea, targeting Israeli shipping.

While this bold stance has earned the Houthis sympathy from many Arabs and Muslims, many Yemenis under Houthi control fear the consequences of this latest escalation on their already dire humanitarian situation.

Following the recent American strikes against the Houthis in Sana’a, Yemenis circulated videos showing the scale of the destruction and panic caused among civilians in Yemen.

While Yemenis widely sympathize with the Palestinian cause, they also see themselves as victims of a deepening humanitarian crisis that has lasted for over a decade. They hope for a day when they can live in peace, and travel from Hadramawt to Sana’a without fear, except from God or a wolf watching over their sheep.

American Objectives in the Airstrikes

The objectives of the American airstrikes appear clear. The U.S. seeks to halt Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and send a strong message that the Trump administration is serious about asserting its control over this strategically important region. Additionally, it sends a stern message to Iran, holding it accountable for supporting the Houthis in Sana’a.

Despite the strength of these American airstrikes, it is unlikely that they will lead to the collapse of the Houthi regime in Sana’a, which has remained resilient for over 10 years, enduring thousands of deadly airstrikes without being overthrown.

The Houthi political system is relatively young and less dependent on any regional or international power to maintain its hold, despite receiving military support and armament from Iran.

Throughout the war, the Houthis have managed their battles independently, despite the presence of Iranian military experts and Hezbollah operatives.

The Houthis also heavily rely on their supporters and the local Yemeni community to maintain security and govern in their controlled areas, with little to no external influence.

Therefore, the cost of a military resolution against the Houthis would be much higher compared to what happened with the Syrian regime under Bashar al-Assad. Unlike Assad, who lacked the ability to take political initiative and respond effectively to regional developments, the Houthis have demonstrated political acumen when they responded to good-faith initiatives from Saudi Arabia, including welcoming the Saudi ambassador in Sana’a and sending multiple Houthi delegations to Saudi Arabia for negotiations on various issues.

However, the Houthis must also recognize the dangers of confronting the Trump administration and the serious risks involved, as they did with President Biden in the Red Sea region. Trump’s reaction is likely to be more violent if the Houthis continue their attacks in the Red Sea, targeting their military capabilities and political leadership. The U.S. could also increase economic pressure on them, worsening the humanitarian situation in Yemen to the point of an explosion.

The Yemen war, if it happens, will not be a swift one like the Syrian conflict. It may open the door to further fragmentation of the Yemeni conflict, posing a threat to regional security and stability.

Moreover, the Trump administration’s desire to reduce Iranian influence in the Middle East remains evident, especially after Iran lost its allies in Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Many in the Yemeni street wonder whether the war will return to their country to complete the cycle of targeting Iran’s allies in the region, namely by overthrowing the Houthi group.

Possible Scenario of U.S. Ground Intervention in Yemen

While the situation in Yemen remains uncertain, the potential for a ground intervention by the Trump administration is still a topic of considerable speculation. Should the Houthis continue their provocative actions, particularly targeting international shipping or threatening Israeli interests, U.S. military engagement could escalate beyond airstrikes.

Given the complex nature of the Yemeni conflict, direct military action might take several forms. The U.S. could potentially coordinate with anti-Houthi forces to launch a targeted ground operation aimed at dismantling Houthi military and political infrastructure. This type of intervention, however, would not come without significant costs, both militarily and politically. It would likely lead to an increased humanitarian crisis and further complicate an already volatile regional situation.

One important factor to consider is the role of regional actors, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, who have historically been involved in the conflict. If they continue to support local Yemeni factions, U.S. intervention could be framed as a coalition effort to restore order and curb Iranian influence in the region. However, the local military fragmentation, with various factions operating independently of one another, complicates the situation further. Coordination and unity within the anti-Houthi forces remain major obstacles.

Challenges and Consequences of U.S. Ground Intervention

• • Military and Political Costs: A ground intervention would come at an extraordinarily high cost, both in terms of U.S. military assets and the political fallout. The risks of increasing local and regional hostility toward the U.S. and its allies could overshadow any perceived military benefits. Moreover, the complexities of Yemeni politics would make it difficult to secure a clear and decisive victory.

• • Humanitarian Impact: The war in Yemen has already resulted in one of the worst humanitarian crises in the world. A military escalation, particularly ground-based operations, could exacerbate the suffering of millions. U.S. airstrikes have already led to civilian casualties, and any ground intervention would likely lead to further destruction, displacements, and loss of life.

• • Proxy War Dynamics: Yemen’s conflict is heavily influenced by regional proxy dynamics, especially between Iran and Saudi Arabia. A U.S. ground intervention would risk inflaming these tensions further, turning Yemen into a permanent battlefield for proxy forces. This would likely result in an even more complicated and prolonged conflict, with no clear resolution in sight.

• • The Legitimacy of the Yemeni Government: A successful U.S. ground intervention would hinge on the legitimacy and unity of Yemen’s internationally recognized government. With fragmented military leadership and limited political cohesion, the Yemeni government could struggle to lead an effective ground campaign against the Houthis. Moreover, local governance issues would complicate the situation, as the military’s actions would need to be coordinated with political solutions that are currently lacking.

Conclusion: Is U.S. Ground Intervention in Yemen Inevitable?

While it’s unlikely that President Trump will immediately send ground troops to Yemen due to the high costs involved, there are signs that U.S. policy may push toward a more direct role in the region, especially if the Houthis continue their attacks in the Red Sea or threaten Israeli interests.

Yemenis are caught between their sympathies for Palestine and the ongoing humanitarian nightmare within their own country. The situation remains precarious, with a delicate balance of power that could tip into full-scale conflict if the region’s major powers—especially the U.S., Iran, and Saudi Arabia—do not recalibrate their approach to diplomacy and intervention.

In this context, the Houthis face an uncertain future, especially if they misinterpret the changing dynamics under Trump’s administration. Their continued aggressions could lead to intensified military strikes, and perhaps even ground forces aimed at weakening their grip on northern Yemen.

However, the real question remains: Will all parties—locally and internationally—prioritize diplomacy, or will Yemen be destined for more suffering and conflict? For Yemenis, the hope remains for a peaceful resolution, yet the specter of war looms large as the struggle for control in the region continues.