A Political Bombshell… What’s Happening in Istanbul?

Just hours after Istanbul University’s decision to revoke the graduation certificate of Istanbul’s mayor, Ekrem İmamoğlu, accompanied by political and public outcry, the public was shocked by the news of İmamoğlu’s arrest in the early hours of March 19, 2025, following a decision by the public prosecutor. The decision also led to the detention of more than one hundred others.

The list of detainees included bureaucrats close to İmamoğlu, the Mayor of Şişli in Istanbul, the Deputy Head of the İYİ Party in Istanbul, as well as businessmen, some of whom were arrested while attempting to flee the country with 40 million Turkish liras in cash, while others managed to escape.

The arrests sparked widespread debate. Some viewed it as an attempt by the government, particularly President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, to prevent İmamoğlu from running for president, while others considered it one of the largest corruption scandals and acts of terrorism support in Turkish history.

The list of accusations ranged from bribery, extortion, and fraud, to illegal access to personal data, culminating in the accusation of İmamoğlu being a member and leader of a criminal organization, and supporting terrorism, as will be detailed later.

The total corruption uncovered is the largest in Turkey’s history, estimated at 560 billion liras, according to Turkish media sources citing investigative authorities. So, how did this case begin?

The Beginning of the Story

In March 2024, a video surfaced showing a group of individuals in what later turned out to be a law office, unloading bags of money of various sizes onto a desk, while one individual counted it using an electronic machine.

It was easy to identify the individuals, but the most important among them, who was counting the money, was Fatih Kılıç, known as the “black box” of İmamoğlu and one of his closest allies since İmamoğlu was mayor of “Beylikdüzü.”

Ironically, the person who published the video was not associated with the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) but was the former president of the youth branch of the Republican People’s Party (CHP) in the province of Muş, Erkan Çakır, the same individual who raised the issue of İmamoğlu’s university degree’s legality, and was outside the circle of Erdoğan’s supporters.

Çakır stated that the stacks of money displayed in the video came from construction company owners who had successfully won tenders from Istanbul Municipality, implying that these were bribes.

From that moment, investigative authorities began their work, and day by day, the scope of the operation expanded. Close associates of İmamoğlu, and members of the CHP, were arrested, including the Mayor of Beşiktaş in Istanbul, Rıza Akbolat, who was arrested in January. Reports confirmed that he gave astonishing confessions, holding İmamoğlu responsible for the alleged shady operations.

In February, the Mayor of Beykoz in Istanbul, Alaeddin Köksal, and others were arrested on charges of manipulating tenders and aiding a criminal organization.

Prior to them, in October, the Mayor of Esenyturt, Ahmed Özer, who had received strong backing from İmamoğlu for his candidacy, was arrested after forcing the CHP’s original candidate to withdraw. This was part of what is known as the “Urban Consensus.”

This concept was introduced by the People’s Democracy and Equality Party (DEM) in December 2023, just three months before the last municipal elections, claiming to cooperate with various parties to present candidates across regions.

However, investigations revealed that İmamoğlu used this platform to form alliances with terrorist organizations, and some members were registered as members of the CHP just days before the March 2024 municipal elections.

The investigations also revealed that many of these names infiltrated the structures of the Greater Istanbul Municipality and took leadership positions in sub-municipalities won by the CHP.

The Presidential Candidacy Story

As the investigation into İmamoğlu advanced, and his associates were arrested, the pressure mounted. İmamoğlu resorted to an alternative strategy: announcing his presidential candidacy, hoping to make the authorities think twice before arresting him, avoiding domestic and international embarrassment.

This was admitted by CHP parliamentarian Sezgin Tanrıkulu, who stated in a televised interview, “We were already aware of the corruption and terrorism investigations targeting İmamoğlu, so we designed the presidential primaries within the party to get him out of these investigations.”

It seems that the Mayor of Ankara, Mansur Yavaş, realized the truth of these primaries and withdrew from running, leaving İmamoğlu as the sole candidate. However, his arrest came before the primaries took place.

Rise… and Fall

The rise and fall of Ekrem İmamoğlu on the Turkish political scene has been swift, much like the journey of Erdoğan from his early days with the late professor Necmettin Erbakan in the “Milli Görüş” movement to his presidency.

İmamoğlu began his political life as a right-wing figure in the Motherland Party before moving to the left-wing, Atatürkist CHP. However, in his path to this sharp political shift, he tried to join the ruling AKP, but the party rejected him for unknown reasons.

Through the CHP, İmamoğlu won the mayoral election of “Beylikdüzü” in Istanbul, and from there, he set his sights on the mayoralty of Greater Istanbul.

In 2019, İmamoğlu ran against former Prime Minister Binali Yıldırım in a race considered by many to be imbalanced due to Yıldırım’s long political history and professional record. However, İmamoğlu pulled off an unexpected victory in the first round and again in the re-election, with a large margin. He successfully used the re-election to build a narrative of victimhood, boosting his popularity.

It was clear that İmamoğlu would not be satisfied with just being the mayor of Turkey’s most important city; he had presidential ambitions, a goal well within his rights. This sense of ambition was further amplified by both internal and Western propaganda, especially after his second victory in 2023 over a former minister, Murat Kurum.

On his way to achieving his presidential dreams, İmamoğlu worked to consolidate his power within the CHP at the expense of prominent figures, including former party leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. İmamoğlu played a significant role in Kılıçdaroğlu’s ousting in favor of the current party leader during the party congress held in November 2023. Ironically, the events of that congress are now under investigation, as members of the party have accused İmamoğlu of using money to oust Kılıçdaroğlu.

His policy of monopolizing the party in his favor and sidelining dissenters created a broad opposition against him, which worked to expose all his violations to investigative authorities, playing a significant role in this case.

The Repercussions of İmamoğlu’s Arrest

This security operation was not without its consequences, as it triggered economic and party ramifications. Economically, the Turkish lira faced a sharp blow, falling by 11% before recovering by about 5.5%. The Central Bank had to pump in about $8 billion, according to Reuters.

Additionally, the Istanbul Stock Exchange index dropped by more than 6%, forcing a temporary halt in trading.

Politically, the main opposition party is facing tough days, especially if judicial authorities decide to annul the results of the congress and prove that money was used to buy votes. This would mean the return of Kılıçdaroğlu as party leader, restructuring it to remove all İmamoğlu’s allies, a process that would leave negative organizational and populist impacts on the party’s path.

However, violent security unrest similar to the 2013 Gezi Park protests is not expected. The scope of the corruption revealed since İmamoğlu’s arrest is vast and supported by documents and photos, which refutes the “politicization” of the issue and reduces public sympathy for him as days go by.

Furthermore, the Kurdish left’s involvement in peace talks with the government will force them to limit their responses to verbal stances, avoiding any street confrontations for İmamoğlu’s sake.

Despite some lukewarm European reactions, it is unlikely that the European continent will escalate its stance against Turkey, especially as it engages in negotiations with Turkey to include it in the new security system and support Ukraine.

The United States has also confirmed that the arrests are an internal Turkish matter, meaning İmamoğlu’s hoped-for external pressure from this quarter has slipped from his grasp.

In conclusion, it is clear that the Turkish government had carefully planned this security operation, the most significant since the failed 2016 coup attempt, both in terms of evidence and preparation for potential fallout.