Warnings of Civil War Return: “The War of Dismissals” Divides Israel

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has defined the path through which he will confront his complex crises, both domestically, with the ongoing opposition to his policies and right-wing coalition, and externally, regarding the war on Gaza and other fronts. The past few days have provided clues to this path, starting with the resumption of the war on Gaza as an entry point to strengthen his government coalition. This coalition saw the triumphant return of National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, ensuring the passage of the state budget by the end of the month.

Netanyahu has managed, in fact, to strengthen the right-wing and secure support from his partners in the war he is waging to remove his opponents in the security and judicial institutions, thereby ensuring that no official committees are formed to investigate the events of October 7. In this context, the Israeli government approved, on Thursday night, the dismissal of the head of the Shin Bet, Ronen Bar, with the government set to convene on Sunday to vote on the dismissal of the legal advisor to the government.

This and other actions make it clear that Netanyahu is largely unconcerned with the voice of the Israeli street, which, for its part, prefers to reach a comprehensive agreement to release prisoners from Gaza. This includes thousands of Israelis who demonstrated yesterday morning in Jerusalem and attempted to reach Netanyahu’s residence but were met with repression and assaults, leading to clashes between them and the police. According to The Jerusalem Post, the police used excessive force to disperse the protesters who opposed the government’s policies regarding prisoners in Gaza and its decision to isolate the head of the Shin Bet. The newspaper also noted the widespread circulation of videos documenting the protesters being beaten and assaulted.

Netanyahu facilitated the removal of Bar by stating that he “has not had confidence in the Shin Bet head since October 7,” adding, “In the Israeli army, we used the period of calm to change the leadership.” Meanwhile, an Israeli political official issued a statement reported by Hebrew media, claiming that the government “lost all confidence in Bar, who continues to cling to his position and brazenly uses the families of the captives.”

According to this political official, Bar “preferred not to attend the cabinet meeting discussing his case because he feared answering questions, particularly one key question: Why, after knowing of Hamas’s attack hours before it occurred, did you do nothing and fail to contact the Prime Minister, which could have prevented the catastrophe? Had Ronen Bar done his duty and stuck to his position, we wouldn’t have reached October 7.”

In response, Bar sent a message to the government, stating that “the allegations against me are completely baseless and are merely a cover for other strange and unacceptable motives. I personally led the exchange deal with the Prime Minister’s approval. The decision to remove me should have been based on clear allegations that I could respond to.” Bar addressed the ministers, saying: “You are not aware of most of the details due to the Prime Minister’s directives, and Netanyahu prevented me from meeting with you over the past year. My exclusion from the negotiation team negatively impacted the negotiations and didn’t lead to the release of captives but aimed at conducting talks without reaching an agreement. My dismissal was meant to prevent an investigation into the events of October 7.”

While the far-right in the government welcomed the plan to dismiss Bar, viewing it as part of the “purging of institutions,” Netanyahu, for his part, launched a fierce attack against what he describes as the “deep state” in Israel, in a new escalation targeting intelligence agencies. Some figures are expected to be removed. According to Yedioth Ahronoth, the pressure on Bar increased significantly after talks between Netanyahu and U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House last month, where the two leaders discussed the need to escalate the confrontation with the “deep state,” which Netanyahu accuses of obstructing his domestic and foreign policies.

This escalation is undoubtedly set to impact Israel’s judicial system as well. In a controversial tweet on “X,” Netanyahu stated that “the left and the deep state in the U.S. and Israel are using the judicial system to undermine the will of the people,” something that many of his opponents claim is aimed at undermining the “independence of the judiciary and the democratic system” in the country.

In contrast, the Supreme Court ruled to freeze the decision to dismiss Bar until the petition against him is reviewed. The legal advisor issued a message to Netanyahu, stating that “according to the Supreme Court’s decision, any action that could harm the status of Shin Bet head Ronen Bar is prohibited. A new Shin Bet head cannot be appointed, and even interviews for the position are not allowed.” While Israeli Interior Minister Moshe Arbel announced that “the Netanyahu-led government will not violate a Supreme Court ruling,” Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich attacked the decision, saying, “The Supreme Court judges will not run the war or decide who its leaders are.”

On the ground, protests against the government continue, and they are expected to escalate next week with the anticipated dismissal of the legal advisor, as Israeli political parties launched attacks on the coalition. The “Yesh Atid” party described Netanyahu’s actions as a reflection of “panic” due to the potential exposure of corruption within his government, pointing to suspicions of foreign money, referring to the so-called “Qatar Gate” scandal.

Amid Netanyahu’s insistence on his approaches and plans, warnings have increased regarding scenarios of chaos and the outbreak of a civil war in Israel, as noted by, for example, former Supreme Court President, retired Judge Aharon Barak, who said that the disagreements and tensions have reached a point that may lead Israel to the brink of disaster. He recommended “preventing the tyranny of the majority,” which he said was “exploiting its power.” Barak’s remarks sparked criticism from Smotrich, who called for more understanding between the various political factions in Israel. Writing on “X,” he said, “Politicians are burdened with responsibilities and have lost the ability to deal with complexities. Anger at them will be of no use. What drives us all toward a better future is the strong adherence to unity, in all frameworks of this homeland.”

For his part, Histadrut Labor Union President Arnon Bar David expressed his expectation that the Israeli government “respect every decision made by the court, as the government is not above the law,” warning that “we are on the brink of chaos under this government, and I will not contribute to the destruction of Israeli society.” He also warned that failure to implement the court’s ruling is a “red line that must not be crossed, and we will not sit quietly while the state of Israel is dismantled.”

Following the government’s dismissal of Bar and its move to dismiss the legal advisor on Sunday, pessimism has grown about Netanyahu’s government performance and what it may do in the coming months to stay in power, even if that means prolonging the war and opening new fronts of combat, which could allow for postponing the parliamentary elections scheduled for October 2026.

Hebrew media outlets reported that former Israeli National Security Council head and author of the “Generals’ Plan,” Giora Eiland, said, “The current government coalition will create excuses to avoid holding parliamentary elections on time if it realizes it will not get the majority to form a new government coalition.” Based on this, Eiland argued that “it is not impossible for Netanyahu to prolong the war for more than a year to prevent elections,” expressing his conviction that there is a clear and dangerous trend in this direction.