What Do We Know About the ‘Jenin Model’ and Israel’s Seven Emirates Plan for the West Bank?

First, it’s essential to clarify that the term “Jenin Model” is neither new nor exclusive to Israel’s ongoing military operations, now approaching their third month. Understanding the initial model is crucial to grasping the second, more dangerous, and comprehensive iteration.

The “Jenin Model” first emerged in 2010 through a joint initiative between the late Jenin governor, Qaddoura Mousa, once known as Jenin’s strongman, and Danny Atar, then head of the Gilboa settlements surrounding Jenin, under the supervision of former British Prime Minister Tony Blair representing the Quartet.

Initially, the model aimed to transform Jenin—previously labeled by Israel as a “hornet’s nest” due to its resistance during the Al-Aqsa Intifada and the fierce 2002 battle in Jenin camp—into a center of high-security cooperation with the Israeli occupation, paired with an economic boom within the framework of the “economic peace” promoted by the Israeli right.

The model succeeded and endured for nearly a decade, making Jenin the calmest city in the West Bank. Opening the Jalameh checkpoint became a symbol of economic development, and senior Israeli officers proudly walked the streets of Jenin, boasting of close security coordination with the Palestinian Authority. The model proved replicable, subsequently extending to cities like Nablus.

During the 2015 Jerusalem uprising and subsequent individual attacks, the “Jenin Model” remained largely intact compared to other West Bank areas. Israeli security establishments often highlighted its resilience.

However, the model’s durability was tested during the 2021 “Sword of Jerusalem” conflict when rockets from Gaza targeted the Flag March in Jerusalem, sparking widespread demonstrations across the West Bank, including Jenin. This unleashed a new generation of young activists, breaking years of silence, eventually evolving into organized resistance groups. This progression marked the beginning of the collapse of the original model, reaching a critical breaking point after the events of October 7.

The Second Model

About a month ago, Israeli Channel 14 aired a lengthy discussion examining the ongoing military operation in Jenin and its objectives.

The program highlighted videos showing intensive arrests by Palestinian security forces concurrently with unprecedented Israeli military actions. Despite acknowledging the PA’s efforts, Israeli military analysts argued that the current Palestinian cooperation was insufficient. According to them, Israel isn’t merely conducting security operations but testing a new governance model in Jenin, set to mature by year-end and subsequently implemented across other West Bank cities.

The model explicitly aims to reshape security relations, coercing Palestinian security forces into deeper alignment with Israeli security philosophy, effectively staying “ten steps ahead” in terms of control.

This model includes security extortion accompanied by economic leverage, such as withholding tax and customs revenues, compelling Palestinian Authority compliance during Israel’s strategic consolidation of control over the West Bank.

Jenin was strategically chosen for this experiment not merely due to security issues in its refugee camp but because it lacks direct contact with settlements, minimizing risk to Israelis during the model’s testing phase.

Reengineering Space and Population

Scrutinizing Israel’s actions in Jenin reveals a meticulous plan to reengineer both physical space and social dynamics.

The first step involves erasing “Jenin refugee camp” through systematic demolitions and restructuring according to a predetermined urban plan, transforming the camp into standardized city neighborhoods. This process aims to eliminate the refugee identity and restrict returnees according to the redesigned residential framework.

Simultaneously, Israel is constructing three permanent military bases in the overlooking Al-Jabriyat area, designed to exert total control over the city, eventually converting these bases into administrative centers.

Israeli authorities are working to normalize relationships with local business and civic entities to solidify the new model while maintaining robust security coordination with the Palestinian Authority, limiting its role strictly to security.

Another strategic motive for preserving a redesigned Palestinian Authority is avoiding the “one-state” scenario, thereby deflecting apartheid accusations by retaining a separate Palestinian administrative entity, however limited.

Recently, Jenin has become inhospitable, prompting forced and voluntary migration, with businesses relocating to surrounding villages due to deteriorating economic, educational, and service conditions.

Mordechai Kedar’s “Seven Emirates” Plan

Israel’s second Jenin Model is being implemented alongside accelerating plans for Mordechai Kedar’s “Seven Emirates” scheme. Kedar, an influential right-wing Israeli scholar, proposes dividing the West Bank into seven separate enclaves, each administered by local tribal and political entities independently dealing with Israel.

Geographically, Israel has nearly completed this segmentation through settlement expansion, strategic roads, military checkpoints, and barriers isolating West Bank cities. Currently, Palestinian actual control covers merely about 10% of the West Bank, itself only 22% of historic Palestine.

Kedar’s plan is virtually geographically complete, leaving demographic and administrative restructuring as the next step. The ongoing operations in Jenin exemplify efforts to establish direct Israeli control mechanisms, similar to those reportedly successful in Hebron.

Historical Decisiveness and the Apartheid Trap

The second Jenin Model involves:

1. 1. Completely dismantling refugee camps, eradicating refugee designations, and redistributing populations.

1. 1. Redesigning the Palestinian Authority’s civil and security structures to comply fully with Kedar’s model.

1. 1. Implementing direct military rule through new mechanisms, reviving the “Village Leagues” model with modern civilian and economic facades as a precursor to formal West Bank annexation.

Yet, in pursuing this, Israel inevitably entrenches itself in an unprecedented apartheid structure, ironically accelerating the feared “one-state” outcome. Palestinians, in turn, face the urgent challenge of intensifying their steadfastness, resilience, and resistance strategies to defeat these forcible displacement schemes and confront what may become the harshest chapter in their long-standing conflict with the occupation.