Israeli Writer Urges ‘Decisive Step’ to Avoid War with Turkey

In a provocative opinion published in Yedioth Ahronoth, Israeli tech entrepreneur and former intelligence officer Jonathan Adiri warned that Turkey’s ambitions in 2025 go far beyond securing a seat at the Middle Eastern table — it aims to build the entire table itself. Citing recent developments, including a potential Turkish-Syrian defence pact, Adiri urged the Israeli government to adopt urgent military and diplomatic measures to deter President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan from escalating regional tensions.

Adiri, who also served as a technology adviser to the late Israeli President Shimon Peres, stated that Israel’s failure to shape the northern front has allowed a serious threat of indirect war with Turkey to emerge — a threat he believes is more dangerous than Iran.

“Turkey is not Iran — not in terms of isolation, not in economy, nor in influence,” Adiri wrote.

“It is a dynamic regional power, with one foot in the West, massive reach into Europe, and a finger on the pulse of the East. The plan to remove Assad and secure Syrian airspace was crafted long ago in Ankara.”

He continued by noting that the military and political gains made by Turkish-aligned figures like Abu Mohammad al-Julani, along with growing international recognition, have allowed Turkey to establish buffer zones in Syria, pushing Iranian and Russian rivals back. Now, Erdoğan is positioning Turkey to reap strategic and political rewards. According to Adiri, Israel’s limited victories against the so-called “Shia Crescent” are opening a window for Turkish expansion into the Eastern Mediterranean.

Turkey’s Rise: Strategic Calculations Behind the Scenes

Adiri warned that Turkey’s influence now dominates its domestic and foreign policy agenda, especially with crucial national elections on the horizon. Behind the curtain of Turkish politics, he highlighted the growing influence of Hakan Fidan, Turkey’s current Foreign Minister and former intelligence chief.

“Fidan is not merely a diplomat,” Adiri stated.

“He is the architect behind Turkey’s grand geopolitical vision: strengthening presence in Libya, maintaining military zones in Syria, deploying naval assets in the Mediterranean, and simultaneously engaging both Russia and NATO. He is more strategic than Erdoğan — the mastermind of Turkey’s hegemony project.”

Adiri argued that Turkey’s military ambitions are no longer hypothetical. As the second-largest army in NATO, Turkey’s strategic deployments across the Middle East and Eastern Europe have created a new economic and geopolitical reality. He pointed to figures showing that Turkish arms exports have quadrupled in a decade, reaching over $7 billion, and noted that 70% of Turkey’s defence industry is now domestically produced, making it the fourth-largest drone manufacturer globally.

But military strength isn’t Turkey’s only leverage.

“Turkey’s energy pipelines have made it a cornerstone of European energy security,” he wrote.

“And with more than 3.5 million Syrian refugees on its soil, Ankara holds significant sway over Europe’s immigration future.”

Israel’s Strategic Options and Regional Alliances

Adiri called on Israeli leadership to take a decisive step to avoid the eruption of conflict with Turkey. He identified two regional alliance options to support such an effort.

The first is the moderate Sunni bloc, backed by the United States, and comprising Egypt, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia — all of whom share concerns about Turkish expansionism. The second is a Mediterranean coalition that includes Greece and Cyprus, with which Israel has cultivated deep ties in military, energy, and civil cooperation, such as joint fire-fighting drills and diplomatic coordination.

He stressed that while Israel may possess the tools to confront Ankara, its Mediterranean allies do not, particularly when it comes to managing Turkey’s activities around Cyprus, which Ankara views as a strategic backyard.

“The national security discussion held by Netanyahu on this issue is a defining moment for Jerusalem,” Adiri concluded.

“Will Israel recognise the battlefield forming before its eyes, and utilise its full range of strengths — military, economic, diplomatic, and technological — to steer relations with Turkey toward shared interests, rather than toward a path of confrontation?”