Will War Break Out Between Israel and Turkey? Tensions Rise Over Syria

Recent Israeli statements — from government officials to media outlets — alongside a series of airstrikes inside Syria, suggest that Turkey is increasingly being seen as a strategic target by Tel Aviv. Israeli leadership views any potential Turkish-Syrian defence cooperation as a direct threat, and the idea of bombing potential Turkish military bases in Syria is no longer considered off-limits.

This alarming development has triggered concern within Turkey’s political and military circles, sparking debates over Ankara’s response to Israel’s growing hostility.

What Does Israel Want?

Since the eruption of the latest Gaza war, it has become increasingly clear that Israel is no longer operating within the boundaries of political realism, but rather is driven by what some analysts call “Theopolitics” — a form of expansionist ideology rooted in Zionist eschatology.

At its core lies the ambition to establish Greater Israel, fulfilling the biblical vision of the “Promised Land.” To this end, Israel has made strategic alignments with key ideological factions in the United States, working to expand its territorial footprint.

Already occupying large portions of the West Bank, Gaza, and southern Lebanon, Israel has also deepened its presence inside Syria since the outbreak of the civil war — and there’s no indication it plans to stop. Its recent efforts to pressure Jordan, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia to accept the forced displacement of Palestinians are part of a broader regional scheme. The strategy is built on the premise that Israel must be surrounded by weak, unstable neighbours.

Hence, Israel relentlessly targets Syria’s military infrastructure, leaving no room for alternatives to emerge. It now sees any Turkish military presence in Syria — whether in the form of training, assistance, or bases — as a national security threat. And it’s increasingly willing to act accordingly.

Turkey Responds Through Diplomacy — For Now

Ankara views Israel’s recent rhetoric and provocations as a direct challenge. The escalation — particularly the bombing of the T4 airbase, believed to host Turkish interests — has sparked widespread outrage across Turkish society and within policy-making institutions.

Turkey’s first response came through Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, who told Reuters:

“Israel’s actions are not just targeting Syria, but destabilising the entire region.”

During a recent visit to the United States, Fidan voiced Turkey’s displeasure to U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, warning that Israeli aggression threatens regional equilibrium.

This diplomatic manoeuvring is part of Turkey’s strategy to de-escalate tensions. Ankara understands that a direct military confrontation with Israel — especially given Syria’s fragile state — would only deepen the chaos.

A military response remains on the table, but it carries enormous risks. Any escalation could draw the U.S. directly into the conflict, triggering a broader war — a scenario Turkey is actively seeking to avoid. Instead, Ankara is pressuring Washington to rein in its ally.

Despite positive ties between Ankara and the Trump administration, the global economic crisis creates uncertainty. It remains unclear how long the U.S. will tolerate Israeli actions that risk regional destabilisation.

Israel: A Fragile Military Power?

Despite its bravado, Israel is not in a position of true strength. Its aggressive regional policy, drawn-out wars, and occupation efforts have pushed its economy to the brink. In 2024 alone, Israel’s GDP shrank by 25%, and the current war is estimated to cost over $400 billion.

American support remains crucial, but much of it is covert, making it difficult to track. Known figures show Israel received at least $20 billion in arms last year, but sustaining this level of support indefinitely is unlikely — particularly as global economic conditions deteriorate.

Militarily, Israel lacks manpower to fight on multiple fronts. Facing simultaneous tensions in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and the West Bank, its army — particularly the reserves — is stretched thin.

Internal rifts between the security establishment and Netanyahu are also growing. Though not always visible, these divisions are deepening. As economic hardship mounts and public protests intensify, Netanyahu’s grip on power weakens. His political survival is increasingly seen as tied to war — not peace.

Europe Leans Toward Turkey

Amid its own economic tensions with Washington, Europe appears to be recalibrating its stance on the Middle East — siding more with Turkey than Israel when it comes to Syria.

European discontent toward U.S. policies is shifting into firmer resistance against Israeli aggression. There is growing potential for Franco-Turkish cooperation in Syria, and signals of alignment from Spain, Italy, and even the UK.

Europe’s changing posture is driven not just by moral outrage but also by geopolitical calculus. As EU nations seek strategic autonomy from U.S. dictates, Israeli policy becomes collateral damage.

Netanyahu’s Plan Fails to Win Trump’s Backing

Despite Netanyahu’s efforts to prioritise Syria during his recent visit to the U.S., Trump remained indifferent. Syria is not a top issue for the American public — nor for the Trump campaign.

Netanyahu requested a strong U.S. statement backing Israeli security operations in Syria, but Trump’s response was less than enthusiastic. He reportedly said:

“I have a great friend — Erdogan. I love him, and he loves me. We’ve had no issues. If you have a problem with Turkey, I can fix it. I hope there’s no trouble… but you need to be reasonable.”

Trump’s veiled warning to “be reasonable” reportedly irritated Netanyahu. It suggested that Israeli demands are becoming excessive, even for its closest allies.

Redefining the Rules of Engagement

It is increasingly evident that diplomacy alone may not be enough to deter Israeli provocations — particularly if Israel escalates by targeting Turkish forces in Syria.

Ankara may soon move to redefine its rules of engagement, especially regarding the use of military force beyond its borders. Just as it responds immediately to threats in northern Iraq, Turkey may begin treating any Israeli attack on its forces in Syria as an act of war.

The key questions now are:

• • What if Israel bombs a Turkish base in Syria?

• • Will NATO respond?

• • What is the West’s position if a direct clash occurs?

These questions are under intense debate within Turkish military and political circles. While no final decision has been made, what is clear is that Turkey is not prepared to back down.

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