Hezbollah at a crossroads as Lebanon pushes for arms monopoly

Last year’s Israeli war on Lebanon has left Hezbollah in a precarious position.

Weakened by a relentless bombing campaign, a ground invasion and targeted strikes that killed much of its senior leadership – including its influential leader Hassan Nasrallah – the group has been facing mounting internal and international pressure to fully disarm.

The United States, which helped broker the November ceasefire that halted the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel, has long insisted that the Lebanese government be the sole authority in control of weapons within the country.

In an interview with Lebanese broadcaster LBCI, US deputy special envoy for the Middle East Morgan Ortagus said that “we continue to press on this government to fully fulfil the cessation of hostilities, and that includes disarming Hezbollah and all militias”.

Despite the ceasefire, Israel has carried out near-daily attacks on Lebanese territory in recent months, claiming to target Hezbollah positions. Meanwhile, Lebanese Foreign Minister Youssef Rajji has stated that reconstruction efforts and humanitarian aid are conditional on all arms being placed under army control.

Amid this pressure and shifting political landscape, what future awaits Hezbollah’s arsenal?

Hezbollah sending a message

A senior Hezbollah official told Reuters that the group is open to begin talks with the Lebanese president about its weapons if Israel fully withdraws from Lebanon and stops its attacks on the country.

The Israeli army is still positioned in five strategic points near the border in southern Lebanon. Israel was expected to complete its withdrawal from Lebanon by 18 February, while Hezbollah was to relocate its fighters and weaponry north of the Litani River, with the Lebanese army taking their place in the south.

Following the Reuters report, Hezbollah’s media office issued a statement rejecting the claims published in “some media outlets” and attributed to Hezbollah officials, calling them “completely false.”

The statement did not mention Reuters, nor did it specify which allegations it was addressing.

However, Qassim Qassir, an analyst close to Hezbollah, told Middle East Eye that contacts have already been made between Hezbollah and the Lebanese government “to discuss the defence strategy and the future of weapons”.

“Hezbollah is open to a national dialogue a developing a defence strategy, but has not discussed disarmament,” he said. “At present, talking about disarmament is not possible while the Israeli occupation continues.”

Retired Lebanese army general Johnny Khalaf confirmed that the group has expressed relative openness to discuss its weaponry, but talks have so far fallen short of leading to concrete action.

“Hezbollah is sending messages that it is ready for cooperation, dialogue and discussions surrounding the issue of surrendering weapons,” Khalaf told MEE.

“However, it has not been assertive in that topic. When a specific timeframe is put in place, once there is a decision and an implementation mechanism, then we can say that the issue is serious.”

Since taking office in January, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, the army’s former chief, has pledged to ensure that the Lebanese state becomes the sole bearer of arms in the country.

In an interview with Al Jazeera this week, he reaffirmed that commitment, saying the dialogue on disarmament would be conducted bilaterally between him and Hezbollah.

“The decision to restrict the possession of weapons to the state has been made,” Aoun said. “It will be implemented through dialogue, not by force.”

In a separate statement on Tuesday, Aoun said that Hezbollah fighters could be integrated into the Lebanese army and undergo training to become eligible.

However, Khalaf said that government statements will remain “camouflage talks” if no proper mechanisms are implemented.

“Surrendering weapons is not as easy as it sounds when discussed in the media, no matter how much pressure the Americans apply,” he said.

Iran’s decision

As debates over Hezbollah’s weapons gather steam, Iran – the group’s chief financial backer and arms supplier – has entered indirect negotiations with the US over its nuclear programme.

Khalaf believes the outcome of those talks could influence Hezbollah’s position and the fate of its arms.

“The decision to surrender weapons isn’t entirely in Hezbollah’s hands,” he said. “The Iranians haven’t addressed this issue at all so far. They’re waiting for the outcome of their talks with the Americans, which will take time. I believe it is now linked to Iran’s decision.”

Khalaf added that Tehran may see Hezbollah’s arsenal as a bargaining chip in negotiations with Washington.

Qassir, however, said the talks could yield positive outcomes. “Any improvement in US-Iran relations will have a positive impact on all developments in the region, including Lebanon,” he said.

Still, he stressed that Hezbollah’s weapons remain primarily tied to “the Israeli enemy and its occupation of Lebanon.”

A new chapter for Hezbollah?

Despite its heavy losses, Hezbollah remains a powerful political force in Lebanon, drawing significant support from the country’s Shia community and from citizens across sectarian lines who back its resistance against Israel.

This makes a swift or forceful disarmament nearly impossible, regardless of mounting pressure from Western and Arab states.

“Surrendering Hezbollah’s weapons cannot be achieved through force, given the popular backing the group enjoys,” Khalaf said. “In Lebanon, we are cautious to avoid an issue that could spiral into civil war or other dangerous scenarios.”

Aoun has repeatedly stated that Hezbollah is cooperating with the terms of the ceasefire agreement, something Khalaf says is reflected in the army’s deployment in the south.

“In the area south of the Litani, the Lebanese army has spread into nearly all positions, except for the posts still occupied by the Israeli army,” he said. “This is the first step, and Hezbollah is being cooperative here by relinquishing its positions. The army has now assumed control of around 600 sites.”

Khalaf believes Israel is using the fact that the Lebanese army has yet to announce full control of the south as a pretext to continue bombing what it says are Hezbollah members and positions, including in the capital Beirut.

While the future of its arsenal remains uncertain, Qassir believes Hezbollah is currently reassessing its role following its war with Israel and the fall of its ally, Bashar al-Assad, in Syria.

“We are witnessing a new vision for the party, but the future of its weapons is tied to the Israeli occupation and a national dialogue,” he said.

“This vision focuses on Hezbollah’s role within Lebanon, its support for the Lebanese government and army, and its commitment to the Taif Agreement (that ended the civil war and laid the groundwork for political power-sharing in the country).”