U.S.–Saudi Nuclear Deal in the Works: A Shift in Gulf Strategy Amid Iran Tensions?

A new report by the Washington Institute reveals that the upcoming U.S.–Saudi civilian nuclear agreement may serve not only to pave the way for normalisation with Israel, but also as a strategic move to curb Iran’s growing nuclear capabilities and address regional proliferation concerns.

Simon Henderson, Director of the Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy, wrote that U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright confirmed an initial agreement during his April 13 visit to Saudi Arabia, with further details expected later this year. The cooperation will fall under the U.S. “123 Agreement” framework, which restricts uranium enrichment and mandates nuclear fuel imports under strict non-proliferation terms.

Wright’s announcement coincided with indirect U.S.–Iran nuclear talks in Oman, reflecting broader strategic calculations. Henderson reminded that Iran continues enriching uranium beyond civilian needs, while Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had warned in 2018: “If Iran develops a bomb, we will follow suit as soon as possible.”

The report noted that Saudi Arabia is quietly developing enrichment capabilities, possibly using centrifuge technology once provided to Iran by Pakistani scientist A.Q. Khan.

This nuclear deal is part of a larger Saudi wishlist, which includes U.S. security guarantees and advanced military technologies—items once discussed during normalisation talks with Israel, now frozen due to the Gaza war.

Challenges remain. The U.S. currently lacks large-scale nuclear export capacity. While small modular reactors (SMRs) offer promise for desalination and electricity in the Gulf, they are not expected to be operational before the next decade.

Interestingly, Henderson points out that even the 123 Agreement doesn’t permanently rule out enrichment. A 2009 U.S.–UAE deal includes a “non-preferential” clause, implying Riyadh could gain enrichment rights if others do.

Meanwhile, U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff is due to resume talks with Tehran on April 19. But mixed messages persist. He recently tweeted that Iran must “eliminate” its nuclear weapons program, yet told Fox News that enrichment levels above 3.67% were unnecessary and focus should be on verification.

The report concludes that while Saudi and Omani diplomacy may reduce nuclear risks, the cost could be a delay in formal Saudi–Israeli ties—especially as Trump’s upcoming Gulf tour focuses heavily on economic partnerships.

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