Kashmir Attack and the Risk of Open War: 5 Key Questions Explained

At least 26 people were killed on Tuesday in an attack targeting tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir, marking the deadliest assault of its kind in the region in 25 years.

The attack has heightened fears of escalating tensions between India and Pakistan and raised concerns over potential Indian retaliation.

Who Carried Out the Attack?

A group calling itself the “The Resistance Front” (TRF) claimed responsibility for the assault. TRF is believed to be a front group for the Pakistani militant organisation Lashkar-e-Taiba.

The group linked the attack to India’s controversial decision to issue thousands of new residency permits allowing non-Kashmiris to live and work in the region.

Indian officials, speaking anonymously to Al Jazeera, suggested that four attackers participated—two allegedly from Pakistan and two from the Indian side of Kashmir.

How Did India Respond?

India swiftly unveiled a series of punitive diplomatic measures against Pakistan, accusing it of supporting “cross-border terrorism.”

These measures include:

• • Suspending the Indus Waters Treaty, a key water-sharing agreement signed in 1960.

• • Closing the main land border crossing at Attari-Wagah.

• • Massive diplomatic downgrades, including the withdrawal of Indian diplomats from Islamabad and expulsion orders for Pakistani diplomatic staff in New Delhi.

Additionally, India ordered Pakistani military attachés to leave the country within a week and recalled its own defense advisers from Pakistan.

Why Is Kashmir a Flashpoint?

Kashmir, a picturesque region in the Himalayas, has been a hotbed of conflict since 1947, when British India was partitioned.

An insurgency against Indian rule began in 1989, leading to decades of violence. Although attacks on tourists had decreased in recent years, sporadic incidents still occur.

The last major attack on tourists occurred in June 2023, when gunmen ambushed a bus carrying Hindu pilgrims, resulting in multiple fatalities.

India insists that the Kashmir insurgency is “Pakistan-sponsored terrorism,” while Pakistan denies these accusations.

New Delhi maintains a heavy military presence in Kashmir, with approximately 500,000 troops stationed there, and tensions worsened after Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government revoked Kashmir’s limited autonomy in 2019.

What Are the Historical Roots of the Conflict?

The Kashmir dispute dates back to the 1947 partition of British India, which led to the creation of India and Pakistan.

According to the original partition plan, Muslim-majority regions were expected to join Pakistan, while Hindu-majority areas would join India. However, Kashmir’s Hindu ruler Hari Singh controversially chose to accede to India, despite the state’s Muslim-majority population.

This decision triggered the first Indo-Pakistani war, setting the stage for ongoing conflict over Kashmir ever since.

Could the Situation Escalate Further?

Analysts warn that India’s response to the attack could lead to serious escalation.

Tara Kartha, former National Security Council official and director at India’s Centre for Land Warfare Studies, called the attack a “declaration of war.”

She pointed out that the assault came just days after Pakistan’s army chief, Asim Munir, reiterated support for the two-nation theory that underpinned Pakistan’s creation.

Kartha cautioned that unless Pakistan unequivocally condemns the attack and acts against the perpetrators within 48 hours, a serious crisis is likely to unfold.

Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry did issue a statement expressing concern over the loss of life and extended condolences, but it is unlikely to appease Indian public opinion.

Political experts predict that India’s government will face mounting pressure to respond forcefully, but warn that reckless military action could destabilize the already fragile South Asian region.

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