What If Hamas Held No Israeli Prisoners?

A critical hypothetical question arises when examining the stalled negotiations between Hamas and Israel: What if Hamas held no Israeli prisoners? Would Israeli society still exhibit any division over the war on Gaza? Or would the current internal dissent dissipate entirely?

The ongoing anti-war protests in Israel might suggest a moral awakening to some external observers. Yet, beneath the surface, many analysts argue that these divisions are not fundamentally driven by ethical opposition to the war but rather by concern over Israeli captives held by Hamas.

Would Israelis Protest Without Prisoners?

Doniel Hartman, President of the Shalom Hartman Institute and a prominent Jewish thinker in North America, notes that power worship is embedded in Israeli identity. He explains:

“Without military power, Israel would never have been established nor survived the hostile Middle East. Since the 1967 victory, Israel’s strength has been glorified, shaping both its self-identity and its role within global Jewry.”

Today, Israeli society is locked in a cultural battle over its future identity, with rising factions revering raw power and viewing ethical constraints on the IDF as signs of weakness.

Hartman highlights the meteoric rise of far-right figures like Itamar Ben-Gvir and his party “Jewish Power,” which openly celebrates dominance over non-Jews and sees the use of force as a sacred national right. This movement represents not a fringe but a growing mainstream phenomenon in Israeli politics.

In a 2015 survey published by the Israeli outlet 972+ Magazine, the findings were blunt: “Israelis Only Understand Force.” Voting patterns since the Second Intifada consistently show Israeli society’s preference for hardline right-wing governments.

Protests in Israel: Not Against the War, But About Hostages

Merav Zonszein, a senior analyst for the International Crisis Group, wrote in Foreign Policy in April 2024, warning that the portrayal of Israeli protests as humanitarian is misleading.

She explained that most Israeli protesters:

• • Do not call for a ceasefire.

• • Do not protest the unprecedented civilian death toll in Gaza.

• • Do not oppose the humanitarian blockade or mass famine induced by Israeli policies.

Instead, the protests primarily revolve around frustration with Netanyahu’s leadership and failure to secure the release of Israeli captives. Protesters want better deals for the hostages—not an end to the genocide in Gaza.

Zonszein concludes that even if Netanyahu is replaced by figures like Benny Gantz, there is little hope for major policy shifts regarding Palestinians.

Israeli Public and the Language of Force

Deeper analyses by Israeli and Palestinian scholars alike, including Khalil Shikaki and Yaacov Shamir, show that throughout major conflicts, such as the Second Intifada, public support for concessions only rose after major Israeli military defeats or pressure, not moral reflection.

Historical examples:

• • The 1973 Yom Kippur War led to Camp David and a peace treaty with Egypt.

• • The First Intifada pushed Rabin toward the Oslo Accords.

• • The Second Intifada ultimately resulted in Sharon’s disengagement from Gaza.

Thus, Israeli society often responds not to ethical imperatives but to strategic losses and painful realities.

The reality today is that the hostage card is one of Hamas’ few effective tools to pressure Israel. Without it, Israeli society might largely ignore the mass atrocities committed in Gaza, reinforcing the view that only strength and pressure can force Israel into concessions.

Conclusion: The Myth of Israeli Moralism

While international media might highlight Israeli protests as evidence of a moral awakening, the core driver is far more pragmatic: the fate of Israeli captives.

The Israeli public, shaped by a deep-seated culture of power glorification, does not readily oppose military aggression unless it directly costs them.

Thus, without hostages, internal Israeli pressure to end the war would be negligible, and the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza would continue with even less scrutiny.

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