Israel’s Plans for Gaza: Three Strategic Scenarios Unfold

Israel’s evolving strategy for Gaza operates across three potential frameworks — high, middle, and minimum — depending on conditions on the ground. Yet, a common thread unites all three: the ultimate goal of a Gaza without weapons, and without Hamas.

The “High Ceiling” Vision: Occupation, Annexation, and Displacement

The highest strategic ceiling envisions a reoccupation of the Gaza Strip, the mass displacement of its inhabitants, and potential annexation of all or part of the territory, including the reactivation of settlement programs. This plan, implicitly requiring the total eradication of Hamas and the disarmament of the resistance, resonates strongly among the Israeli far-right and religious Zionist circles, receiving implicit backing from the U.S. — with former President Donald Trump reiterating calls for the expulsion of Gaza’s population.

The “Middle Ceiling” Vision: Partial Control and International Management

The intermediate scenario involves maintaining partial Israeli control over key points within Gaza, overt or covert dominance over crossings, continued aerial sovereignty, and the ability to launch targeted incursions — akin to the situation in the occupied West Bank.

In this framework, Gaza would be administered by Arab or international forces or subordinated to the Palestinian Authority in Ramallah, under strict Israeli conditions. The displacement, annexation, and settlement schemes would be suspended, some basic goods and reconstruction materials would be permitted entry, and a concerted disarmament campaign would neutralise the resistance and politically marginalise Hamas.

Israel aims to push for the highest gains possible from these two scenarios, using them as bargaining tools. Should resistance continue its defiance, Israel seeks to create regional and international pressure — including Palestinian factions aligned with Ramallah — and possibly foster internal dissent within Gaza against the resistance, portraying Hamas as the obstinate party blocking “peace” and causing further suffering.

In this setup, Israel would market any limited withdrawal, ceasefire, and partial easing of the siege as “major concessions,” thereby trying to pressure Hamas into disarming and withdrawing from the political and institutional Palestinian scene altogether.

The Deceptive “Peace Offer”

This dangerous Israeli strategy frames its ultimate objectives — disarming Gaza and dismantling Hamas — as international and Arab demands, camouflaging its aggression under the guise of humanitarian concern. It would present the Palestinian Authority as the “saviour,” while masking its alignment with American and Zionist objectives, especially in curbing resistance movements and “political Islam.”

Key Pillars of Israel’s Gaza Strategy

A review of Israeli statements, actions, and political behaviour reveals the following strategic elements:

• • Restoring Israel’s damaged image post-October 7, where its security doctrine and deterrence credibility were shattered.

• • Reasserting Israel’s functional role as the West’s stronghold in the region, thereby reassuring Arab normalisation regimes of its reliability.

• • Inflicting maximum psychological trauma (“consciousness-shaping”) through brutal collective punishment — mass killings, destruction of homes, infrastructure, schools, hospitals, mosques, and churches — without regard for legal or humanitarian norms, aiming to deter future resistance operations.

• • Imposing Israeli terms for the “day after” governance of Gaza.

• • Exploiting the war environment to accelerate Judaization projects in the West Bank and Gaza.

• • Expanding Israel’s strategic security doctrine to include regional deterrence beyond Palestine, ensuring Zionist entity survival even if the Palestinian issue is “resolved.”

• • Raising the negotiation ceiling to exert maximum pressure during future political talks.

• • Minimising the cost of Israeli captives held by the resistance, stretching negotiations indefinitely if needed.

• • Maximising U.S. cover and leverage in political, military, economic, and media domains.

• • Exploiting Arab weakness and complicity, leveraging the hostility of certain regimes toward resistance and political Islam.

• • Prolonging the war to maximise gains and sustain internal cohesion within Israel’s far-right government.

• • Concealing true military losses and fabricating battlefield successes to maintain public morale.

• • Reneging on ceasefire agreements with the resistance, weaponising humanitarian crises to pressure Gaza into concessions.

The Obsession with Disarming the Resistance

Increasingly, Israel and its allies are framing the “day after” in Gaza around the disarmament of Hamas. European leaders, such as France’s Macron, publicly champion this despite simultaneous rhetoric about a two-state solution.

Meanwhile, figures linked to the Palestinian Authority have attempted to deflect popular anger toward Hamas, rather than maintaining focus on Israel’s war crimes and siege.

Israel’s recent escalations — breaching truces, tightening the siege, launching savage massacres mostly targeting women and children — and reoccupying parts of Gaza aimed to push Gaza’s already devastated population to unbearable limits, setting the stage for imposing its maximalist agenda.

However, the Palestinian resistance responded by escalating its military operations and launching a political counter-campaign: reaffirming its commitment to Palestinian national principles, while demonstrating pragmatic flexibility in negotiations, particularly concerning prisoner exchanges, aiming to end the war and ensure a full Israeli withdrawal.

Resistance Weaponry: A Red Line

Facing Israel’s “zero-sum” strategy, there appears to be no real prospect for ending the war, lifting the siege, or reconstructing Gaza unless the resistance remains resilient — bleeding the occupation militarily, economically, and politically, and generating internal Israeli crises that the Zionist regime cannot endure.

The resistance has already achieved significant successes, especially with the resumption of high-impact operations and the admission by Israeli Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi that the Gaza war may stretch for “months or even years.”

Complicating matters further, Donald Trump’s impulsive nature and impatience for quick victories do not allow Netanyahu indefinite time to continue the war, especially as Trump seeks breakthroughs in Arab normalisation and negotiations with Iran. Meanwhile, the Arab world grows increasingly restless, and international support for Israel erodes sharply, even among traditional European allies.

Thus, resistance remains the primary hope and the inviolable red line. In a battle that targets not just Gaza, but the very existence of the Palestinian people and cause, steadfastness in armed struggle is not merely a tactical choice — it is an existential imperative.

Over a century of history affirms this truth: the Palestinian people have thwarted dozens of colonial projects aimed at erasing their identity — and, by Allah’s will, they shall defeat this latest scheme too.

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