After Rising Losses in Gaza: What Lies Ahead for the Israeli Occupation?

Analysts and experts say that the escalation of Palestinian resistance operations and the increasing losses suffered by the Israeli occupation army in Gaza over the past days have deepened Israel’s strategic predicament. They argue it has exposed the failure of both its military and political strategies, while exacerbating divisions within the military and political establishments regarding the objectives and future of the war.

Battles have intensified across all fronts — from Beit Hanoun in the north to Rafah in the south. The resistance has carried out ambushes and sniper operations that have led to the killing and injury of Israeli soldiers, according to repeated Israeli army reports.

Military and strategic expert Brigadier General Elias Hanna highlighted the emergence of a new operational pattern by the resistance, signalling a shift in the battlefield dynamic and a profound failure in Israel’s military and political approach.

Speaking to Masār al-Aḥdāth (“Path of Events”) program, Hanna explained that despite Israeli tactical achievements and widespread destruction, Tel Aviv has failed to secure a decisive strategic victory due to the strategic mismatch between its military capabilities and political aims.

He noted that although the military landscape in Gaza has changed — including new leadership at the Israeli General Staff adopting different tactics — the Palestinian resistance continues to impose heavy costs on the occupiers. This comes after allowing the Israeli forces to advance into previously evacuated areas in a gradual manner.

The Israeli army, which favours mobility and rapid manoeuvres, has now reached its maximum territorial extension inside Gaza. This state of relative stagnation has been exploited by the resistance to launch counter-operations using a new pattern aimed at inflicting heavier losses on the occupation, Hanna added.

Resistance Strategy and Israeli Stagnation

Political analyst Wissam Afifa stated that the timing of the intensified operations by Al-Qassam Brigades, the armed wing of Hamas, reflects a clear strategic plan. This plan takes into account the evolving battlefield conditions over the past eighteen months, including shifts in geography, modes of confrontation, and the available human and material resources.

He noted that the occupation sought to lure the resistance into engaging on its own terms through gradual incursions. However, the resistance maintained tactical patience, awaiting the point at which Israeli forces would fall into operational routine and complacency — a dangerous vulnerability for any conventional military.

At that moment, the resistance seized the initiative, launching well-prepared ambushes as part of its strategic doctrine.

This shift in the field has caused significant confusion within the Israeli army, influencing its decisions and triggering fierce debates within the Israeli security cabinet over the question: “What’s next?”

Israel Hayom reported sharp disputes during recent cabinet meetings between security officials and ministers concerning the next phase in Gaza, with no consensus reached. The cabinet instructed the army to revise its operational plans and resubmit them for approval.

The Deepening “What Next” Crisis

Israeli affairs expert Dr. Muhannad Mustafa pointed out that the “What next?” question is now being raised strongly inside Israel. He highlighted the shock experienced by new Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi, who had based his plans on three misplaced assumptions: his distance from the failures of October 7, an exaggerated perception of Hamas’s weakness, and unrestricted resources for occupying Gaza.

Instead, he was confronted with three unexpected realities:

• • Growing protest petitions that have undermined the legitimacy of the war,

• • Hamas’s continued operational effectiveness,

• • A sharp drop in reserve soldiers’ willingness to serve, with estimates that 50–70% of reservists are no longer reporting to duty.

Mustafa emphasised that casualties weigh heavily on Israeli public opinion, especially when a war lacks internal legitimacy and consensus. This raises serious doubts over the entire military campaign as Israel slides toward a war of attrition.

Yedioth Ahronoth also reported severe tensions between the Israeli Air Force and the Southern Command over the Gaza war, primarily due to the high number of Palestinian civilian casualties from airstrikes targeting locations chosen by the Southern Command.

Mustafa noted that this internal division reflects broader societal splits, with the Air Force — historically aligned with more liberal segments of Israeli society — increasingly opposing the Southern Command’s strategy amid growing domestic unrest following the ceasefire and renewed pressure.

Resistance Capitalising on Israeli Disarray

Meanwhile, the Israeli families of prisoners held in Gaza have announced mass protests across Tel Aviv and other cities, demanding the return of all captives through a comprehensive exchange deal.

Afifa explained that the resistance is keen to capitalise on Israel’s internal divisions to maximise pressure on the Netanyahu government. He noted that Hamas’s recent proposal for a comprehensive deal was quickly picked up by certain Israeli and American factions, further intensifying internal strains.

He added that Israel’s delay in making decisive military decisions stems from these mounting pressures, as well as a growing reliance on humanitarian aid as a central leverage tool — particularly as the military campaign has yielded disappointing results.

Mustafa further explained that Netanyahu prefers prolonging the conflict rather than siding with either the “quick victory” camp — led by extremists Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir, who demand a full occupation of Gaza — or the “slow attrition” camp, which Netanyahu himself champions.

Instead, Netanyahu is likely to pursue a temporary settlement: “privatising” the distribution of aid to avoid turning the army into Gaza’s de facto governor, while making hollow promises to escalate military operations to appease the far-right.

Diplomacy Regaining Importance

Ultimately, analysts anticipate that Israel will increasingly prioritise the diplomatic track, especially amid ongoing international activity and the upcoming visit of U.S. President Donald Trump to the region. Meanwhile, limited, calculated military operations will likely continue — aimed at maintaining pressure on Hamas and appeasing various factions within the Israeli government without triggering a full-scale escalation.

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