Red Lines: The Boundaries of Confrontation Between Israel and Hezbollah

In my view, it is futile to downplay the significance of the Israeli intelligence breach, which resulted in the two recent explosions that led to the martyrdom of approximately thirty-seven individuals at the time of writing this article, with that number likely to rise due to the severity of the injuries.

This was followed by air raids, which the occupation entity claimed destroyed nearly one hundred Hezbollah missile launch sites in southern Lebanon. While we do not entirely rely on the enemy’s narrative, the sequence of events and the nature of matters compel us to believe that some damage has indeed occurred to some of these platforms, regardless of its extent.

I personally admit how surprising, as well as distressing and painful, this development was. I will not deny that a sense of frustration crept into me. What alleviated the intensity of these emotions was Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah’s acknowledgment of the gravity of this setback, which once again proves his seriousness and organization. His promise of retaliation, which I believe, coupled with a careful analysis of the event, places it in a contextual framework that allows for a better assessment of its weight.

Two critical factors are at play here. The first is the nature of the operation itself. It is essential to remember that it is not unprecedented in its type, as similar operations have occurred, such as the rigging of the phone that killed engineer Yahya Ayyash, the assassination of Iranian scientists, and the martyrdom of Ismail Haniyeh. What is new here is the expansion of the use of this technique, extending beyond targeted assassinations or semi-surgical strikes to take on the form of a broad military operation, indiscriminately affecting both military personnel and civilians. This parallels any random missile attack on civilians and constitutes state terrorism par excellence.

The second factor is the resolution of the anticipation we have lived with since October 7th and the question of whether the war would expand to include Lebanon or not. All indications were that Netanyahu, who is in crisis, had an interest in continuing the war to maintain his coalition, and thereby himself. However, there were always those who bet on the possibility that certain figures within Israel’s military and intelligence establishment might restrain him, alongside Israel’s fears of such an expansion and deeper fronts, especially with Hezbollah, the larger and better-armed force. Now, the matter has been decided, the uncertainty has cleared, and we have ascended to another level that requires a new evaluation.

Thus, I reiterate that it is neither wise nor rational to downplay the scale of this escalation, but with careful and deep reflection, we should also avoid exaggerating it. Yes, it is painful and wounding, but it is not a defeat, nor does it come close to that.

Logically speaking, any analysis should lead us to the conclusion that a state like Israel, which we know through its nature and objectives, could never accept the uneasy coexistence it has had with Hezbollah since its withdrawal from southern Lebanon at the start of the new millennium. The need for revenge over the shame of that humiliating defeat, and the scattered skirmishes that never escalated into full-scale war, could not satisfy Israel’s ongoing need—a need that has now surfaced due to circumstances.

As for the essence of things, Israeli technical and intelligence superiority is nothing new. It is a foundational component of the equation. The resistance accepted it, emerged, and grew within its shadow. At no stage was it ever proposed, nor did anyone claim, that the balance of this superiority had shifted in favor of the resistance.

The core principle that sustains the resistance movement is the challenge to this superiority and the acceptance of receiving greater blows and losses as long as it can respond with specific operations that hurt, wound, and exhaust the enemy.

Regarding our astonishment at the scale of these recent explosions, the truth is that this is the real source of surprise. What is so strange about this colonial, settler, genocidal power that has been committing atrocities for almost a year in its latest rounds of aggression against our people, targeting and killing in such numbers?

The initial shock of these operations might stem from our miscalculation after October 7th. We allowed ourselves to be swept away by wishful thinking and forgot the basic principles that have governed this existential conflict from the start. It may be that Hamas’s operation represented a remarkable qualitative leap for the resistance, but that does not mean that Israel, which is always backed by the West, has suddenly become a trivial or powerless adversary.

We must not forget that as Israeli society veers further to the right and becomes more fearful, it will become more extreme and inclined to reinstate the deterrent force of fear of retribution and punishment, much like Egypt’s brutal repression following January 25th.

Any thorough understanding of Israel’s nature and the role for which it was established, and a close examination of the development of events and the brutality of its operations, paired with the West’s effective silence, should have led us to near certainty of the inevitability of escalation with Hezbollah, as well as with Iran. This entity, which cannot survive without dominance over its surroundings, cannot continue while its enemies dare to challenge it to this degree and grow in conviction that they pose an existential threat to it.

Israel, in its unique logic, driven by its unique situation, must continue to expand and inflict as much damage and destruction as possible to dismantle any such perceptions and rebuild its defenses against its adversaries. We erred when we succumbed to the euphoria of humiliating the occupation entity on October 7th.

In conclusion, matters must be placed within their historical context and in their true proportions. Israel had no escape from escalation, and it will continue to strike the resistance in Lebanon. Hezbollah will respond at the appropriate time, after repairing the damage to its lines, and its retaliation will likely be painful. We are probably heading for more destruction and suffering.

Israel has not yet ended or vanished as a military-intelligence force, and the resistance has not been defeated, despite the painful blow.