Israel-Hamas truce deal expected within a week – here’s how it could look

Reports have emerged of an imminent agreement between the Occupation entity and Hamas leaders for a possible truce in the four-month-long war to allow the release of hostages and aid to get into Gaza.

A draft deal hatched by US, Egyptian and Qatari mediators following intensive and at times stalled discussions that have been underway since December has been shared with Hamas and Israeli occupation entity officials.

Top Hamas commander Ismail Haniyeh flew to Cairo on Thursday to engage in talks with Egyptian mediators and the two parties – which only engage indirectly – are expected to sign the deal within the coming week.

Last weekend, intensive deliberation took place in Paris between Israel’s intelligence agency Mossad director David Barnea, CIA chief Bill Burns, the Qatari prime minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani and Egyptian officials to hash out a final draft.

The agreement is based around a six-week cessation of hostilities – which would mark the longest pause in fighting since October – and includes a three-stage plan for the release of Israeli hostages in Gaza in exchange for Palestinians imprisoned by Israel, as well as opening up further aid supplies for the devastated Gazan population.

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What are the proposed stages of the plan?

There are believed to be 136 hostages – including two British-Israeli nationals – remaining in Gaza.

The plan’s first stage would see a 35-day long pause in fighting with the release of 35 civilian hostages held by Hamas, including some elderly men whose female relatives were returned to Israel during the last ceasefire in November.

According to a report in the Wall Street Journal, if the first stage is successful Hamas would then hand over female Israeli soldiers, which in turn would enable the entry of aid into Gaza and see damaged hospitals, bakeries and water services repaired and reopened.

Male soldiers taken captive, as well as several dead bodies of captives killed in crossfire, would be handed over by Hamas in the third stage.

Each phase is dependent on the smooth operation of the prior stage, and if either side puts a foot out of line the ceasefire would quickly collapse. In addition, there are sticking points that still need ironing out, including the ratio of Palestinian prisoners exchanged for hostages.

What are Hamas and Israel saying?

A Palestinian official cited by Reuters on Thursday said Hamas was on board to accept the truce proposal, but cautioned that it would not sign before assurances from Israel of its full military withdrawal from the Gaza Strip – something the group has maintained from the start.

Senior Hamas leader Osama Hamdan confirmed on Thursday that the group was studying the proposal that was pieced together in Paris but warned that it was not yet finalised. Speaking to Al Jazeera network, he said: “Until this moment, there has been no response from our side to the proposal, and so, there is no agreement.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been facing rising resentment at home and abroad as he has resisted agreeing to Hamas’s desire for an outright end to the conflict, which sits at odds with his dreams of “dismantling the group”.

Meanwhile, the Israeli public is losing patience over the fate of the remaining hostages while there have been louder calls from Western allies to stem the brutality of his Gaza campaign, which began after the deadly Hamas attack on Israel of 7 October.