After the Assassinations of Haniyeh and Shukr, Will Washington Be Drawn into a Full-Scale war?

Israel has communicated through diplomatic channels to Lebanon and Iran its readiness for an all-out war, following the state of alert raised after the assassinations of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh and prominent Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr.

According to Israeli Channel 12, instructions were issued to Israeli embassies to “increase alertness and vigilance in preparation for an Iranian response.”

“Israel is Prepared for Any Scenario”

In this context, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that Tel Aviv is ready for any scenario following the assassination of Hezbollah leader Fuad Shukr. Netanyahu emphasized that he would not halt the war on Gaza, during a speech broadcast by Hebrew media, including the official broadcasting authority. Both Tel Aviv and Hezbollah confirmed Shukr’s assassination by an Israeli airstrike on a building in the southern suburbs of Beirut.

Netanyahu added, “From the beginning of the war, I made it clear that we are in a war against the Iranian axis of evil.” He continued, “In my speech before Congress (a week ago), I emphasized the three main tools of the Iranian axis of evil: Hamas, the Houthis, and Hezbollah.” Hinting at his responsibility for Haniyeh’s assassination, he said, “In the past few days, we have dealt a crushing blow to each of them.”

Israeli Desire to Sustain the War

Commenting on Israeli statements, Professor of Political Science at Al-Ummah University in Gaza, Hossam Al-Dajani, believes that conveying the message to Iran and Lebanon reflects Netanyahu’s desire to sustain the war, regardless of its geographical scope.

Speaking to Al-Araby TV from Cairo, Al-Dajani said that Netanyahu wants to achieve results by dragging the United States into a wide-scale war in the region. Netanyahu sees this as a means to thwart Iran’s strategic nuclear project and “clip its wings” in Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq, establishing himself as the “King of Kings of Israel.”

Al-Dajani argues that without achieving these goals, Netanyahu will bear the blame for the failure and the repercussions of Operation “Al-Aqsa Flood” that occurred on October 7th. This will lead to the end of his political future and cement his failure in history, being the architect of judicial amendments that caused divisions in Israeli society, in addition to his failure on October 7th.

Speaking from Cairo, Al-Dajani noted that the United States is fully aware of Netanyahu’s intentions. While it cannot abandon Tel Aviv due to historical ties and Israel’s role as its spearhead in the region, the U.S. does not want to expand the war in the Middle East. Netanyahu, understanding this, carried out the assassinations in Lebanon and Iran.

Professor Al-Dajani pointed out that Netanyahu knows an Iranian or Hezbollah response, or a response from other Iran-aligned factions in the region, will compel the U.S. administration and President Joe Biden to defend Israel. Following Shukr’s assassination, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin confirmed that the U.S. “will defend Israel if attacked by Hezbollah in response to the Israeli strike.”

Washington’s Concerns

The White House stated on Wednesday that the Israeli strike leading to the assassination of a Hezbollah leader in southern Beirut and the assassination of Haniyeh in Tehran “does not help” contain regional tensions, but denied indications of imminent escalation. These strikes occurred less than a week after Netanyahu’s visit to Washington, where he held talks with President Biden to push for a ceasefire in Gaza.

Al-Dajani pointed out that U.S. intelligence agencies are hindering Netanyahu’s efforts to involve the United States in the war, fearing that military entanglement could be exploited by Russia and China to resolve major international issues in Ukraine and Taiwan. This is a concern for Biden and his administration, especially given the American experiences in Afghanistan and Iraq that still resonate with American voters, who are preparing to vote in the presidential election in less than 100 days.

White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre affirmed that the United States “does not believe that war between Hezbollah and Israel is inevitable,” adding that “the White House regularly communicates with Israel and regional countries to avoid escalation and war expansion.”